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1/16-17 Anafrontal/Coastal Low Snows Disco/Obs


Zelocita Weather

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6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

2-4" inside the green

Looks like I was a hair low there, but the blue line was 4-6".

Overall very solid though, and in all honesty Your 2 to 4 here probably was most accurate across this section, even down the hill was probably more on the order of 4 to 5 and the next town over Stewartsville wound up with 4. 

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1 hour ago, mikem81 said:

Curious to see how upper bergen, lower rockland and westchester did. Some models had 4-6 inches for those areas.

I did not measure but it is 2 inches or possibly a little more of wet heavy snow on the ground and still coming down lightly,,,Im in New City Lower Dockland maybe someone else has the exact # 

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3 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

I did not measure but it is 2 inches or possibly a little more of wet heavy snow on the ground and still coming down lightly,,,Im in New City Lower Dockland maybe someone else has the exact # 

Huge model bust up there. RGEM had 6" for Rockland. Area routinely gets screwed

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Just now, psv88 said:

Huge model bust up there. RGEM had 6" for Rockland. Area routinely gets screwed

88 I hear you , it rained literally until 5 30 am,,,,,,thats when it changed over,,,,also I watched the Radar until around 2 a.m and the moisture was just staying to my West, it kept moving North but never East. It did that for HOURS, had it shifted slightly East we would have gotten a good hit

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I don’t even know what’s falling right now. It’s like a weird rain/sleet/snow hybrid, hard to explain. It’s falling like snow, but they’re partially frozen little raindrops that don’t look anything like sleet, they’re wet crystal clear little beads.

Edit: it just changed over to snow.

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27 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Huge model bust up there. RGEM had 6" for Rockland. Area routinely gets screwed

Where? I saw the 6" contour maybe at bear mountain. Most of rockland it had in the 2-5" range. Still a bust but def didnt have 6" for new city. 

 

Edit: the 12z and 6z yesterday were ridiculous, if thats the model you meant yeah thats a terrible bust. I hadnt looked at those during the day. They werent as atrocious last night though.

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5 minutes ago, Cfa said:

I don’t even know what’s falling right now. It’s like a weird rain/sleet/snow hybrid, hard to explain. It’s falling like snow, but they’re partially frozen little raindrops that don’t look anything like sleet, they’re wet crystal clear little beads.

Edit: it just changed over to snow.

That sounds like graupel

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4 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Where? I saw the 6" contour maybe at bear mountain. Most of rockland it had in the 2-5" range. Still. Bust but def didnt have 6" for bew city. 

 

Edit: the 12z and 6z yesterday were ridiculous, if thats the model you saw yeah thats a terrible bust. They werent atrocious last night though.

in all honesty, the HRRR did well for once, other than that i cant find a model that did well. I mean, i guess it is also relative, when your banking on a model to narrow down a 30 mile area i suppose its asking alot....

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2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

in all honesty, the HRRR did well for once, other than that i cant find a model that did well. I mean, i guess it is also relative, when your banking on a model to narrow down a 30 mile area i suppose its asking alot....

In 2018 we should be able to more accurately do this with more than 6 hours lead time. 

But this is another debate.

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24 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Where? I saw the 6" contour maybe at bear mountain. Most of rockland it had in the 2-5" range. Still a bust but def didnt have 6" for new city. 

 

Edit: the 12z and 6z yesterday were ridiculous, if thats the model you meant yeah thats a terrible bust. I hadnt looked at those during the day. They werent as atrocious last night though.

Ya the rgem had big hits yesterday. Rgem was aggressive right down to the Ct coast which also got skunked.

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43 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Where? I saw the 6" contour maybe at bear mountain. Most of rockland it had in the 2-5" range. Still a bust but def didnt have 6" for new city. 

 

Edit: the 12z and 6z yesterday were ridiculous, if thats the model you meant yeah thats a terrible bust. I hadnt looked at those during the day. They werent as atrocious last night though.

BX the weenie in me saw some guesstimates of 2-5 for my area and I was hoping more towards 5 but got closer to 2 .Watching the radar last night was painful as the moisture was just to my West for hours , creeping North but never East towards me. Then when it did finally begin it was rain,,,,most models that I saw up until last night had the the rain line well South n East of me .

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29 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

That Westernmost band just doesn't want to die on radar lol

And there is actually a pretty good slug coming Northeast from the Cape May area, could clip Eastern areas.

Snowing at a good clip now, i think we may see some accums soon

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