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1/16-17 Anafrontal/Coastal Low Snows Disco/Obs


Zelocita Weather

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6 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

 

Don , I believe the western members of the EPS , I think the models are missing the WAR.

I am buying the last wave for a moderate event 

That’s a good point. It has the support of some of the EPS members as you noted. It will be interesting to see how things work out. I will be rooting for a snowy outcome.

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1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

That’s a good point. It has the support of some of the EPS members as you noted. It will be interesting to see how things work out. I will be rooting for a snowy outcome.

 

I think there could be as much as. 3 back into NYC and coastal NJ and. 5 on the east end.

I see the way out,  but the models have missed that push a few times and the western cluster of the EPS ended up right earlier as well.

I loved the Blizzard from 7 days out,  I liked this from 5.

A 2 to 4 coast , 3 to 6 across LI type is my thinking sitting here today 

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12 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

 

I think there could be as much as. 3 back into NYC and coastal NJ and. 5 on the east end.

I see the way out,  but the models have missed that push a few times and the western cluster of the EPS ended up right earlier as well.

I loved the Blizzard from 7 days out,  I liked this from 5.

A 2 to 4 coast , 3 to 6 across LI type is my thinking sitting here today 

Your hunch may very well happen. You can clearly see with the H5 maps that the WAR is flexing a bit more with each ensuing suite package.

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21 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

 

I think there could be as much as. 3 back into NYC and coastal NJ and. 5 on the east end.

I see the way out,  but the models have missed that push a few times and the western cluster of the EPS ended up right earlier as well.

I loved the Blizzard from 7 days out,  I liked this from 5.

A 2 to 4 coast , 3 to 6 across LI type is my thinking sitting here today 

This one is a battle between the stronger WAR and more westward EPS members and the kicker coning into the West. 

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12 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Not too excited about this in my backyard. South winds out ahead of this look to torch it to the upper 30s, and precip will be light. Most of the activity looks to be north of me. This looks like a 2-4” or so event for northern suburbs and into SNE. 

Models are still adjusting west with a better precip shield.

I doubt the coast sees all rain. Watch for stronger and colder runs ahead.

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15 minutes ago, snywx said:

NAM is looking good for those N of NYC into SNE. 3-6"

It'll be fully two weeks since the last plowable snowfall, so I'd have no complaints at all about a 2-4 or 3-6" deal... though the latter seems like a long-shot.

Knowing how this month has played out so far, it makes perfect sense why we haven't seen a lot of snow. Still, if you just woke up from a coma and saw that we're running 4 to 5 degrees below normal for the month with above-average precip, you'd expect a different result I think.

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1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Ggem looks to be our outlier big time, with wave 2, it closes off at H5, in a decent position but trough never goes negative, moves due east once it gets close enough to start making an impact 

Eps showed the same thing so it's not an outlier

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1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Eps showed the same thing so it's not an outlier

This. I'm a bit skeptical of going NAM/GFS when I have GEM/EPS. EPS had a huge W lean too. It all comes down to closing off H5 early enough. It's only about system #2 at this point.

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