Brasiluvsnow Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 15 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Thats why I asked the question earlier about the HRRR to me it looked good,,,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 8 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Why do you think so? I've seen lots of storms like this over the years; they don't favor us. Unless you mean we will get some small amount of frozen precip. I don't see much of significance here ( I consider 1-3 insignificant; anyone who has lived in the area for any amount of time does not stop daily activities for this amount, which I don't think we will even see ). doesn't that HRRR graphic displayed above look a little suspect in the areas north of the Raritan ? it shows its snowing in southern Middlesex county and raining in Newark ? That is flat out wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 12 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Why do you think so? I've seen lots of storms like this over the years; they don't favor us. Unless you mean we will get some small amount of frozen precip. I don't see much of significance here ( I consider 1-3 insignificant; anyone who has lived in the area for any amount of time does not stop daily activities for this amount, which I don't think we will even see ). I don't speak for him, but I think models aren't handling the temperature profiles correctly. Either way, this storm will be very fun to track. With light/moderate events like this, it's sometimes nice to have a second plot thread to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 2 hours ago, snywx said: It's interesting how some people view Orange County so far yet a good chunk of it is closer to Manhattan than 75% of Suffolk. I live in far western Orange County (51 miles as the crows fly ) to Manhattan which is the equivalent to Coram on the island. I'm 56 miles from SOHO and can make it to the Henry Hudson Bridge in ~40 minutes pretty much anytime other than rush hour. 1 hour ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I haven’t really notice this cutoff move much all day, West Point has next to nothing I've had a few periods of light flurries that barely coated the ground but nothing heavier than that. Still expecting 4" just as I called it two days ago. If I get more great but I won't be surprised if I end up with less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I’m not sure why everyone keeps pushing this as a grass event, it’s not. I have been doing snow removal for years now and have it pretty pegged. Paved surfaces are cold from the recent cold so any snow that does fall will stick. The two exceptions are treated surfaces and when the sun comes up. No kidding. It's cold. The ground is cold. The salt on the street was washed away Friday. The water bodies in Central Park are solidly refrozen. It was below freezing for 72 hours before this morning and it's been cloudy all day. It's not early December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 15 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: doesn't that HRRR graphic displayed above look a little suspect in the areas north of the Raritan ? it shows its snowing in southern Middlesex county and raining in Newark ? That is flat out wrong Well, sometimes they are dead on; most had my area just barely out of the big snows for the last event, it was hard to believe the cutoff would be so close, and yet it was. So I'll agree it looks unlikely, but it could it also be possible that the rain area should be further west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 down to 34 here. was 36 at 6pm. Winds shifted to the NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Lynbrook Down to 33 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Winds out of the NW. 34/28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Pretty funny watching the buses go up and down Broadway with chains on. Some didn’t during the blizzard. Personally I’m fine with anything that happens as I’ll be on the clock regardless. I do think where I am at 120th and Broadway will see at least some accumulation. I’m pretty far NW for the city. At home in wantagh anything more then a coating will be a pleasant surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
etudiant Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 28 minutes ago, hooralph said: No kidding. It's cold. The ground is cold. The salt on the street was washed away Friday. The water bodies in Central Park are solidly refrozen. It was below freezing for 72 hours before this morning and it's been cloudy all day. It's not early December. Well, the NY Central Park reservoir is not 'solidly frozen', the western half is mostly open water. That said, it does feel cold enough to expect any snow to stick. If there is rain, things will get very slick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 3 minutes ago, etudiant said: Well, the NY Central Park reservoir is not 'solidly frozen', the western half is mostly open water. That said, it does feel cold enough to expect any snow to stick. If there is rain, things will get very slick. It should stick in areas where it snows; the ground is still cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Most models under did this snow up here today 3” OTG, no model put 3" here by 8pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 3 hours ago, snywx said: It's interesting how some people view Orange County so far yet a good chunk of it is closer to Manhattan than 75% of Suffolk. I live in far western Orange County (51 miles as the crows fly ) to Manhattan which is the equivalent to Coram on the island. I’m in Commack and even here we think of coram as the boonies. I had to go out there for a meeting and felt like I was in the middle of nowhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 1 hour ago, NEG NAO said: doesn't that HRRR graphic displayed above look a little suspect in the areas north of the Raritan ? it shows its snowing in southern Middlesex county and raining in Newark ? That is flat out wrong Yes, but Southern Middlesex County is much further West than Newark is. Looking at the 2m temperature profile on say the 3K NAM, you can see the freezing line set up in a very North to South direction. Not saying it's right, but I think that's where the idea is coming from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 6 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Most models under did this snow up here today 3” OTG, no model put 3" here by 8pm Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: Yes, but Southern Middlesex County is much further West than Newark is. Looking at the 2m temperature profile on say the 3K NAM, you can see the freezing line set up in a very North to South direction. Not saying it's right, but I think that's where the idea is coming from. Yes it is, but I'm not convinced it won't be raining there as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 27° w/ lgt snow 1.8" otg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Yes it is, but I'm not convinced it won't be raining there as well. going to be interesting exactly where the rain snow mix line develops and where it travels from there - we can use that for future reference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 11 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Yes it is, but I'm not convinced it won't be raining there as well. 8 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: going to be interesting exactly where the rain snow mix line develops and where it travels from there - we can use that for future reference I agree, it's anyone's guess as to where these parameters set up. Some Mount Holly thinking from a couple hours ago: Quote (3) Introduced more mixing E of the Fall Line, especially early on in the event. Temps this afternoon in the 40s along/E of I-95 and mid to upper 30s just to the west. Just about all of the guidance shows this residual warm boundary layer present at the onset of precipitation tonight, resulting in mainly rain along and E of I-95 at the onset and a rain-snow mix just to the N/W. CAA and dynamical cooling will allow for a changeover to snow from NW to SE toward early morning but expect riming and melting at the surface to result in lower snow ratios and thus snowfall amounts near and especially south of I-78 as well as east of I-287. (4) Emphasized window for heavy snow with snowfall rates of 1-2" per hour late tonight across NE PA and N NJ. The heavy snow potential extends into the first half of Wednesday morning along and east of the DE Valley. This means significant impacts for the morning commute. Even though snowfall amounts are generally lower than warning criteria for Warren and Morris Counties in NJ (3-6"), we will have to consider upgrading to a warning based on impact on the morning rush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 18 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: going to be interesting exactly where the rain snow mix line develops and where it travels from there - we can use that for future reference I don' think the bronx is getting any rain out of this tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 4 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: I agree, it's anyone's guess as to where these parameters set up. Some Mount Holly thinking from a couple hours ago: good discussion here are the 8 pm observations http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.asus41.OKX.KOKX.html 34 at Newark NE wind - will be a brief mix or rain at onset then precip intensifies and a change to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Officially below freezing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 7 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: I don' think the bronx is getting any rain out of this tonight. I am sitting at 33/28 right now in western Nassau. Normally that would be a great pre-game setup. However, there is no precip around. The precip for the City comes mainly from a coastal front that brings warm air with it at the 925 level. It really comes down to where the progression of that warm air stops. The RGEM/EURO combo has that making it up to White Plains or so. The GFS has it making it to the South Shore. That is a huge difference... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 1 minute ago, mikem81 said: I am sitting at 33/28 right now in western Nassau. Normally that would be a great pre-game setup. However, there is no precip around. The precip for the City comes mainly from a coastal front that brings warm air with it at the 925 level. It really comes down to where the progression of that warm air stops. The RGEM/EURO combo has that making it up to White Plains or so. The GFS has it making it to the South Shore. That is a huge difference... 31/28 here. FRG 32/28, 50 mins ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 16 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: I don' think the bronx is getting any rain out of this tonight. 34 here, forget it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 31.5 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 51 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Most models under did this snow up here today 3” OTG, no model put 3" here by 8pm Nice! 42 minutes ago, snywx said: 27° w/ lgt snow 1.8" otg Not fair Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 6 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said: 34 here, forget it. You can still snow at 34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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