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1/16-17 Anafrontal/Coastal Low Snows Disco/Obs


Zelocita Weather

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8 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Why do you think so? I've seen lots of storms like this over the years; they don't favor us. Unless you mean we will get some small amount of frozen precip. I don't see much of significance here ( I consider 1-3 insignificant; anyone who has lived in the area for any amount of time does not stop daily activities for this amount, which I don't think we will even see ).

doesn't that HRRR graphic displayed above look a little suspect in the areas north of the Raritan ? it shows its snowing in southern Middlesex county and raining in Newark ? That is flat out wrong 

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12 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Why do you think so? I've seen lots of storms like this over the years; they don't favor us. Unless you mean we will get some small amount of frozen precip. I don't see much of significance here ( I consider 1-3 insignificant; anyone who has lived in the area for any amount of time does not stop daily activities for this amount, which I don't think we will even see ).

I don't speak for him, but I think models aren't handling the temperature profiles correctly. Either way, this storm will be very fun to track. With light/moderate events like this, it's sometimes nice to have a second plot thread to track. 

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2 hours ago, snywx said:

It's interesting how some people view Orange County so far yet a good chunk of it is closer to Manhattan than 75% of Suffolk. I live in far western Orange County (51 miles as the crows fly ) to Manhattan which is the equivalent to Coram on the island. 

I'm 56 miles from SOHO and can make it to the Henry Hudson Bridge in ~40 minutes pretty much anytime other than rush hour.

1 hour ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

I haven’t really notice this cutoff move much all day, West Point has next to nothing 

44C68491-A44A-4798-BC5D-D52F05A59210.jpeg

I've had a few periods of light flurries that barely coated the ground but nothing heavier than that. Still expecting 4" just as I called it two days ago. If I get more great but I won't be surprised if I end up with less.

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1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I’m not sure why everyone keeps pushing this as a grass event, it’s not. I have been doing snow removal for years now and have it pretty pegged. Paved surfaces are cold from the recent cold so any snow that does fall will stick. The two exceptions are treated surfaces and when the sun comes up. 

No kidding. It's cold. The ground is cold. The salt on the street was washed away Friday. The water bodies in Central Park are solidly refrozen. It was below freezing for 72 hours before this morning and it's been cloudy all day. It's not early December.

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15 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

doesn't that HRRR graphic displayed above look a little suspect in the areas north of the Raritan ? it shows its snowing in southern Middlesex county and raining in Newark ? That is flat out wrong 

Well, sometimes they are dead on; most had my area just barely out of the big snows for the last event, it was hard to believe the cutoff would be so close, and yet it was. So I'll agree it looks unlikely, but it could it also be possible that the rain area should be further west? 

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Pretty funny watching the buses go up and down Broadway with chains on. Some didn’t during the blizzard.  Personally I’m fine with anything that happens as I’ll be on the clock regardless. I do think where I am at 120th and Broadway will see at least some accumulation. I’m pretty far NW for the city. At home in wantagh anything more then a coating will be a pleasant surprise 

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28 minutes ago, hooralph said:

No kidding. It's cold. The ground is cold. The salt on the street was washed away Friday. The water bodies in Central Park are solidly refrozen. It was below freezing for 72 hours before this morning and it's been cloudy all day. It's not early December.

Well, the NY Central Park reservoir is not 'solidly frozen', the western half is mostly open water. That said, it does feel cold enough to expect any snow to stick. If there is rain, things will get very slick.

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3 minutes ago, etudiant said:

Well, the NY Central Park reservoir is not 'solidly frozen', the western half is mostly open water. That said, it does feel cold enough to expect any snow to stick. If there is rain, things will get very slick.

It should stick in areas where it snows; the ground is still cold.

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3 hours ago, snywx said:

It's interesting how some people view Orange County so far yet a good chunk of it is closer to Manhattan than 75% of Suffolk. I live in far western Orange County (51 miles as the crows fly ) to Manhattan which is the equivalent to Coram on the island. 

I’m in Commack and even here we think of coram as the boonies. I had to go out there for a meeting and felt like I was in the middle of nowhere. 

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1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

doesn't that HRRR graphic displayed above look a little suspect in the areas north of the Raritan ? it shows its snowing in southern Middlesex county and raining in Newark ? That is flat out wrong 

Yes, but Southern Middlesex County is much further West than Newark is.  Looking at the 2m temperature profile on say the 3K NAM, you can see the freezing line set up in a very North to South direction.  Not saying it's right, but I think that's where the idea is coming from.

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2 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

Yes, but Southern Middlesex County is much further West than Newark is.  Looking at the 2m temperature profile on say the 3K NAM, you can see the freezing line set up in a very North to South direction.  Not saying it's right, but I think that's where the idea is coming from.

Yes it is, but I'm not convinced it won't be raining there as well.

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2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Yes it is, but I'm not convinced it won't be raining there as well.

going to be interesting exactly where the rain snow mix line develops and where it travels from there - we can use that for future reference

 

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11 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Yes it is, but I'm not convinced it won't be raining there as well.

 

8 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

going to be interesting exactly where the rain snow mix line develops and where it travels from there - we can use that for future reference

 

I agree, it's anyone's guess as to where these parameters set up.

Some Mount Holly thinking from a couple hours ago:

Quote

 

(3) Introduced more mixing E of the Fall Line, especially early on
in the event. Temps this afternoon in the 40s along/E of I-95 and
mid to upper 30s just to the west. Just about all of the guidance
shows this residual warm boundary layer present at the onset of
precipitation tonight, resulting in mainly rain along and E of I-95
at the onset and a rain-snow mix just to the N/W. CAA and dynamical
cooling will allow for a changeover to snow from NW to SE toward
early morning but expect riming and melting at the surface to result
in lower snow ratios and thus snowfall amounts near and especially
south of I-78 as well as east of I-287.

(4) Emphasized window for heavy snow with snowfall rates of 1-2" per
hour late tonight across NE PA and N NJ. The heavy snow potential
extends into the first half of Wednesday morning along and east of
the DE Valley. This means significant impacts for the morning
commute. Even though snowfall amounts are generally lower than
warning criteria for Warren and Morris Counties in NJ (3-6"), we
will have to consider upgrading to a warning based on impact on the
morning rush.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

 

I agree, it's anyone's guess as to where these parameters set up.

Some Mount Holly thinking from a couple hours ago:

 

good discussion here are the 8 pm observations

http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.asus41.OKX.KOKX.html

34 at Newark NE wind - will be a brief mix or rain at onset then precip intensifies and a change to snow

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7 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

I don' think the bronx is getting any rain out of this tonight.

I am sitting at 33/28 right now in western Nassau. Normally that would be a great pre-game setup. However, there is no precip around. The precip for the City comes mainly from a coastal front that brings warm air with it at the 925 level. It really comes down to where the progression of that warm air stops. The RGEM/EURO combo has that making it up to White Plains or so. The GFS has it making it to the South Shore. That is a huge difference...

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1 minute ago, mikem81 said:

I am sitting at 33/28 right now in western Nassau. Normally that would be a great pre-game setup. However, there is no precip around. The precip for the City comes mainly from a coastal front that brings warm air with it at the 925 level. It really comes down to where the progression of that warm air stops. The RGEM/EURO combo has that making it up to White Plains or so. The GFS has it making it to the South Shore. That is a huge difference...

31/28 here.   

FRG 32/28, 50 mins ago

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