NorthShoreWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 51 minutes ago, psv88 said: Dropped from 40 to 33. Temps on the north shore are crashing right now, wow. Down to a hair below freezing here. Most of the north shore from PJ west is between 30 and 33. I could see mostly rain here, or I could see a "surprise" thumping. I'm leaning to rain, but we are tantalizingly close to the cold side at 925 and tantalizingly close to heavier precip. Put those 2 together and we'd thump even if it is raining at ISP. South shore is easy for this one. I'll go with a rain forecast for the north shore, but on the low side for confidence. Basically, the guidance is pretty clear but there is so much that can go wrong and it only has to go a little wrong to change the outcome. Edit: Down to 31 as of 5:30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Definitly noticeably cooler here on the UWS then it was at home on the south shore. This one has an 80s storm feel. I remember as a kid feeling and smelling that moist maritime air before a forecast snow storm. Only to have it rain while the city and north shore had a decent snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 13 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Yea I drove down to Newburgh near SWF, barely anything Interesting, looks to be about an inch or so here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 45 minutes ago, psv88 said: Crazy wind shift. South of the LIE is 5-6* warmer than north, all of sudden my temp plummeted. Maybe the cold sound helps us out a bit, who knows. But i certainly was not expecting my temp to plummet like that. Very cool mesoscale feature, maybe it holds off the warm nose a bit. It's 35 here. Nothing will stop us (All of LI) from raining at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, Rjay said: It's 35 here. Nothing will stop us from raining at this point. Stefon Diggs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, Juliancolton said: Stefon Diggs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: It's 35 here. Nothing will stop us (All of LI) from raining at this point. I'm at 37 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 5 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Interesting, looks to be about an inch or so here. I haven’t really notice this cutoff move much all day, West Point has next to nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 13 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: Down to a hair below freezing here. Most of the north shore from PJ west is between 30 and 33. 32 in Wading river, so may be able to push that a little east although I’m with you on expecting liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 The precip wont even reach the city until after midnight according to most models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 I think I can finally call it 1" here on the 12th hour of snow. Not one of the more glamorous starts we've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 14 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Interesting, looks to be about an inch or so here. 28 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Yea I drove down to Newburgh near SWF, barely anything 27° w/ Steady Lgt Snow falling. 1.2" otg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 9 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I haven’t really notice this cutoff move much all day, West Point has next to nothing On my drive up from the city the temp dropped from 37 to 27 and didn't notice any sign of snowfall till I hit the Bear Mountain area. Steady snow falling from Chester westward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 31 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 16 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: I'm at 37 You're in better position than me for at least a little snow. Enjoy. Current temps don't mean a dam thing imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Little more than an inch. Light snow has been falling for the last couple of hours. As others have mentioned earlier, there is a cutoff currently with the precipitation, lucked out on the right side today. Northern Passaic County nasomuch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, Rjay said: You're in better position than me for at least a little snow. Enjoy. Current temps don't mean a dam thing imo. Oh I know. I expect to wake up to a slushy inch or two with wet pavement. It'll add to my seasonal total at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Oh I know. I expect to wake up to a slushy inch or two with wet pavement. It'll add to my seasonal total at least Never expected that much, and might not see much more than snow showers from all that I've been seeing here. Never was anywhere near being in much of the game for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 36 here and holding steady. Humidity is creeping upwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 18 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Oh I know. I expect to wake up to a slushy inch or two with wet pavement. It'll add to my seasonal total at least I’m not sure why everyone keeps pushing this as a grass event, it’s not. I have been doing snow removal for years now and have it pretty pegged. Paved surfaces are cold from the recent cold so any snow that does fall will stick. The two exceptions are treated surfaces and when the sun comes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Better to be North of the Long Island Expressway if you want frozen precip I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I’m not sure why everyone keeps pushing this as a grass event, it’s not. I have been doing snow removal for years now and have it pretty pegged. Paved surfaces are cold from the recent cold so any snow that does fall will stick. The two exceptions are treated surfaces and when the sun comes up. Expertise and experience take back seat to snow maps and gut feelings. You should know this by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 33 at Central Park now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 43 minutes ago, Rjay said: You're in better position than me for at least a little snow. Enjoy. Current temps don't mean a dam thing imo. Maybe, maybe not. Down to 31* here. It certainly helps to have colder BL when the issue is going to be the BL/925 MB level down the road. Id argue its better to start off below freezing than 37* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 latest HRRR much cooler, "crushes" Rockland, northern westchester and putnum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: all areas north of the Raritan river in NJ and west of eastern Staten Island and north of southern Brooklyn and Queens should have only a short period of liquid and mix and when the precip starts and when it starts getting heavier they will change to all snow quickly - wouldn't be surprised if the NWS has to reissue WWA for some areas they cancelled since some models are trending cooler again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: HRR puts me about 10 miles from the R/S line there. I wouldn't be surprised if it drops further SE again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: all areas north of the Raritan river in NJ and west of eastern Staten Island and north of southern Brooklyn and Queens should have only a short period of liquid and mix and when the precip starts and when it starts getting heavier they will change to all snow quickly - wouldn't be surprised if the NWS has to reissue WWA for some areas they cancelled since some models are trending cooler again Exactly what I've been saying -- entirely premature move on their part. And I'm only speaking 50% from a meteorological sense. They're acting like this is their first rodeo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: all areas north of the Raritan river in NJ and west of eastern Staten Island and north of southern Brooklyn and Queens should have only a short period of liquid and mix and when the precip starts and when it starts getting heavier they will change to all snow quickly - wouldn't be surprised if the NWS has to reissue WWA for some areas they cancelled since some models are trending cooler again Why do you think so? I've seen lots of storms like this over the years; they don't favor us. Unless you mean we will get some small amount of frozen precip. I don't see much of significance here ( I consider 1-3 insignificant; anyone who has lived in the area for any amount of time does not stop daily activities for this amount, which I don't think we will even see ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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