donsutherland1 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: The rain snow line is very close . It's possible that the models are wrong with that aspect. We shall see It's a close call. I still think the City will get 1" with possibly 2" in a few spots (probably northern Manhattan and northward). The 3k NAM seems to point to such an outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 47 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Dropping the WWA here in NYC was rash. No need to do that yet. I see no reason not to still expect 2-4" here. Latest NAM looked much improved and it is downright cold here in Harlem. I just left Harlem it's 37 there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Is there any model that can be trusted this close to the event ? I mean isn't this timeframe still good for the HRRR and in its wheel house ----because I looked at it just now and it shows snow for everyone North of the city,,,,,OR are we down to radar and now casting at this point ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 36 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: I wonder if anyone is commuting from Pine Hill. NYC metro, eh? We have an employee working here that commutes everyday from the Northern Philly Burbs and a retired employee that commuted everyday from Seaside Heights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 RGEM appears to have trended cooler. Gives coastal CT 2-4 inches. 1 inch for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 38 minutes ago, Nibor said: I know a few who take the train from Port Jervis. It's interesting how some people view Orange County so far yet a good chunk of it is closer to Manhattan than 75% of Suffolk. I live in far western Orange County (51 miles as the crows fly ) to Manhattan which is the equivalent to Coram on the island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Dropped from 40 to 33. Temps on the north shore are crashing right now, wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 6 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: RGEM appears to have trended cooler. Gives coastal CT 2-4 inches. 1 inch for NYC NEW OLD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, psv88 said: Dropped from 40 to 33. Temps on the north shore are crashing right now, wow. This is the key to watch. Models have this warm tongue steadily advancing Northward until about 6-8z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: This is the key to watch. Models have this warm tongue steadily advancing Northward until about 6-8z Crazy wind shift. South of the LIE is 5-6* warmer than north, all of sudden my temp plummeted. Maybe the cold sound helps us out a bit, who knows. But i certainly was not expecting my temp to plummet like that. Very cool mesoscale feature, maybe it holds off the warm nose a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 14 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: RGEM appears to have trended cooler. Gives coastal CT 2-4 inches. 1 inch for NYC GFS looks bad. Seems to have cut back on QPF throughout the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, psv88 said: Crazy wind shift. South of the LIE is 5-6* warmer than north, all of sudden my temp plummeted. Maybe the cold sound helps us out a bit, who knows. But i certainly was not expecting my temp to plummet like that. Very cool mesoscale feature, maybe it holds off the warm nose a bit. I've always felt the North shore would do markedly better than the South, however QPF has now become an issue thanks to the dry slotting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: GFS looks bad. Seems to have cut back on QPF throughout the region. Dry slotting from cyclones making close pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: Dry slotting from cyclones making close pass. This storm is a headache. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: GFS also has lesser amounts far N n West------if Billy has warnings of 6 - 10 what gives , what is the NWS looking at up there ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 hour ago, HeadInTheClouds said: What's your best guess for ratios north of 84 in dutchess county? I was thinking 10-12:1. I'd hedge a bit lower than climo, which is around 12:1 in our area. Forcing undershooting the DGZ, heavy riming, and compaction due to marginal surface temps are all limiting factors, though I did briefly discuss in the NW 'burbs thread one possible upside. My expectations are around 8:1. Should be a nice sticky snowfall that makes everything look beautiful when the first rays of sun break through tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: This storm is a headache. They rarely aren't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 13 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: NEW OLD Same shift again and uh oh. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 12 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: NEW OLD Models could be correcting a bit SE now. I've always liked my area for 2-4" and we're knocking on the doorstep again, which is why I stand by the NWS being wayyy premature pulling the WWA plug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 My totals should boost a tad up here, I’ve been light snow almost all day, I have a 2 inches on the board, if I squeeze 4-6 tonight/tomorrow it should be nice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 36 and cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Temp has dropped from 40 to 36.5 here in last 2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 25 minutes ago, psv88 said: Crazy wind shift. South of the LIE is 5-6* warmer than north, all of sudden my temp plummeted. Maybe the cold sound helps us out a bit, who knows. But i certainly was not expecting my temp to plummet like that. Very cool mesoscale feature, maybe it holds off the warm nose a bit. some hi-res guidance has hinted at this, even to the point where parts of the city start as freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 8 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: My totals should boost a tad up here, I’ve been light snow almost all day, I have a 2 inches on the board, if I squeeze 4-6 tonight/tomorrow it should be nice... The radar has hit a brick wall all day near rt 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Temp has dropped from 40 to 36.5 here in last 2 hours.39.2 to 35.5 in past 90 minutes in LynbrookSent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: The radar has hit a brick wall all day near rt 15 Yea I drove down to Newburgh near SWF, barely anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 The 18z RGEM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 10 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: some hi-res guidance has hinted at this, even to the point where parts of the city start as freezing rain. Yea, GEM-LAM shows a sliver of freezing rain NW Suffolk, down to 32.2 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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