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1/16-17 Anafrontal/Coastal Low Snows Disco/Obs


Zelocita Weather

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2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

The rain snow line is very close . It's possible that the models are wrong with that aspect.

 

We shall see

It's a close call. I still think the City will get 1" with possibly 2" in a few spots (probably northern Manhattan and northward). The 3k NAM seems to point to such an outcome.

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38 minutes ago, Nibor said:

I know a few who take the train from Port Jervis.

It's interesting how some people view Orange County so far yet a good chunk of it is closer to Manhattan than 75% of Suffolk. I live in far western Orange County (51 miles as the crows fly ) to Manhattan which is the equivalent to Coram on the island. 

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5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

This is the key to watch. Models have this warm tongue steadily advancing Northward until about 6-8z

925mb_sf.gif?1516138714880

Crazy wind shift. South of the LIE is 5-6* warmer than north, all of sudden my temp plummeted. Maybe the cold sound helps us out a bit, who knows. But i certainly was not expecting my temp to plummet like that. Very cool mesoscale feature, maybe it holds off the warm nose a bit. 

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1 minute ago, psv88 said:

Crazy wind shift. South of the LIE is 5-6* warmer than north, all of sudden my temp plummeted. Maybe the cold sound helps us out a bit, who knows. But i certainly was not expecting my temp to plummet like that. Very cool mesoscale feature, maybe it holds off the warm nose a bit. 

I've always felt the North shore would do markedly better than the South, however QPF has now become an issue thanks to the dry slotting.

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1 hour ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

What's your best guess for ratios north of 84 in dutchess county? I was thinking 10-12:1. 

I'd hedge a bit lower than climo, which is around 12:1 in our area. Forcing undershooting the DGZ, heavy riming, and compaction due to marginal surface temps are all limiting factors, though I did briefly discuss in the NW 'burbs thread one possible upside. My expectations are around 8:1. Should be a nice sticky snowfall that makes everything look beautiful when the first rays of sun break through tomorrow afternoon.

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25 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Crazy wind shift. South of the LIE is 5-6* warmer than north, all of sudden my temp plummeted. Maybe the cold sound helps us out a bit, who knows. But i certainly was not expecting my temp to plummet like that. Very cool mesoscale feature, maybe it holds off the warm nose a bit. 

some hi-res guidance has hinted at this, even to the point where parts of the city start as freezing rain. 

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10 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

some hi-res guidance has hinted at this, even to the point where parts of the city start as freezing rain. 

Yea, GEM-LAM shows a sliver of freezing rain NW Suffolk, down to 32.2 now. 

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