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1/16-17 Anafrontal/Coastal Low Snows Disco/Obs


Zelocita Weather

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55 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Northern stream winter is diving the models crazy

In this case it may be the PAC Jet coming ashore in the West dropping the PNA and acting as a kicker for the second wave. I would feel better with more of a ridge out West so this can go neg tilt in time for areas outside the MA.

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22 minutes ago, mranger48 said:

I would say that's a decent shift. A few  ticks west with that vortex crashing into pacNW and that ridge is in a better spot. I can feel PB starting to smile somewhere...

ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_fh96_trend.gif

That 96 hour frame should give anyone other than Atlantic City folks, or Cape Coders flashback nightmares 

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25 minutes ago, mranger48 said:

I would say that's a decent shift. A few  ticks west with that vortex crashing into pacNW and that ridge is in a better spot. I can feel PB starting to smile somewhere...

ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_fh96_trend.gif

PB should be smiling at the latest guidance. He was onboard for another possible snow event after this weekend.

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I’m once again amazed at how poorly the GFS is performing.  It’s a complicated setup with many pieces given you have activity here and in the MA and mid South. It has some parts close to other guidance but as a whole though it’s just so different than anything else.  It’s missing the Arkansas Tennessee Mississippi snow almost entirely 

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1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

 

I’ll leave it here...This is a bad setup. Flat, progressive, fast flow, +PNA ridge getting crashed into and knocked down, the mean trough is positioned too far east and positively tilted, wave 1 pushes the baroclinic zone way off the coast

This will very likely be a light snowfall event for NYC and nearby areas. Parts of New England could pick up a moderate snowfall.

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28 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I’m once again amazed at how poorly the GFS is performing.  It’s a complicated setup with many pieces given you have activity here and in the MA and mid South. It has some parts close to other guidance but as a whole though it’s just so different than anything else.  It’s missing the Arkansas Tennessee Mississippi snow almost entirely 

You can see the gfs starting to come west with wave 1

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55 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

This will very likely be a light snowfall event for NYC and nearby areas. Parts of New England could pick up a moderate snowfall.

 

 

28 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

You can see the gfs starting to come west with wave 1

Our real shot is 1st wave, the disturbance out west crashing out Ridge isn’t helping either, the trough axis and position of the ULL isn’t remotely favorable, I’m a weenie ;) , but I just can’t materialize a way wave 2 comes up coast, if we can’t trend our 1st wave closer to the coast and amplify our lead SW, once it hits warmer waters we can pump back some moderate snows into the area and into SNE... I’d say 3-6” is our high shot with 1-3” more likely 

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24 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

 

 

Our real shot is 1st wave, the disturbance out west crashing out Ridge isn’t helping either, the trough axis and position of the ULL isn’t remotely favorable, I’m a weenie ;) , but I just can’t materialize a way wave 2 comes up coast, if we can’t trend our 1st wave closer to the coast and amplify our lead SW, once it hits warmer waters we can pump back some moderate snows into the area and into SNE... I’d say 3-6” is our high shot with 1-3” more likely 

My thinking is that wave 2 isn’t a player for most of our region.

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