weatherfreeeeak Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: Euro is closer with wave 2 also. The further west wave 1 goes , the more west wave 2 comes. Bring that wave 2 more west and bam, we have a more wintry week coming up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 8 minutes ago, weatherfreeeeak said: Bring that wave 2 more west and bam, we have a more wintry week coming up If wave 1 goes further east then it will bring the trough east and wave 2 will not have enough amplification to pull west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 10 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Euro is closer with wave 2 also. The further west wave 1 goes , the more west wave 2 comes. The redeveloper is always far more interesting. I'm thinking of Jan 2011 down in Maryland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 This was ukie totals, 3-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 A number of really tucked in EPS members with the second wave. Something to watch with a strong block east of Newfoundland and the UL closing off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 what do i have to do to convince people to stop looking at snow maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 10 minutes ago, forkyfork said: what do i have to do to convince people to stop looking at snow maps Forky, any thoughts on these potential snow events? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 hour ago, bluewave said: A number of really tucked in EPS members with the second wave. Something to watch with a strong block east of Newfoundland and the UL closing off. Northern stream winter is driving the models crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 55 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Northern stream winter is diving the models crazy In this case it may be the PAC Jet coming ashore in the West dropping the PNA and acting as a kicker for the second wave. I would feel better with more of a ridge out West so this can go neg tilt in time for areas outside the MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 I would say that's a decent shift. A few ticks west with that vortex crashing into pacNW and that ridge is in a better spot. I can feel PB starting to smile somewhere... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Nams ugly, strong SW but way positive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 22 minutes ago, mranger48 said: I would say that's a decent shift. A few ticks west with that vortex crashing into pacNW and that ridge is in a better spot. I can feel PB starting to smile somewhere... That 96 hour frame should give anyone other than Atlantic City folks, or Cape Coders flashback nightmares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 hour ago, snow1 said: Forky, any thoughts on these potential snow events? Thanks 0-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Title of this thread says the wednesday the 17th, but the snow on the NAM (about 1 inch for NYC) is tuesday morning which is the 16th. It looks earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 That 96 hour frame should give anyone other than Atlantic City folks, or Cape Coders flashback nightmares How much further west can it all get pulled?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 25 minutes ago, mranger48 said: I would say that's a decent shift. A few ticks west with that vortex crashing into pacNW and that ridge is in a better spot. I can feel PB starting to smile somewhere... PB should be smiling at the latest guidance. He was onboard for another possible snow event after this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, forkyfork said: 0-12" Way to narrow it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 I’m once again amazed at how poorly the GFS is performing. It’s a complicated setup with many pieces given you have activity here and in the MA and mid South. It has some parts close to other guidance but as a whole though it’s just so different than anything else. It’s missing the Arkansas Tennessee Mississippi snow almost entirely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: I’ll leave it here...This is a bad setup. Flat, progressive, fast flow, +PNA ridge getting crashed into and knocked down, the mean trough is positioned too far east and positively tilted, wave 1 pushes the baroclinic zone way off the coast This will very likely be a light snowfall event for NYC and nearby areas. Parts of New England could pick up a moderate snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 11 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Yeah but whatever he says is usually what doesn't happen. What's your thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 minute ago, hudsonvalley21 said: What's your thoughts? That uncertainty still reigns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 26 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: This will very likely be a light snowfall event for NYC and nearby areas. Parts of New England could pick up a moderate snowfall. Yes with wave 1 but who knows what will happen if wave 2 hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 28 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I’m once again amazed at how poorly the GFS is performing. It’s a complicated setup with many pieces given you have activity here and in the MA and mid South. It has some parts close to other guidance but as a whole though it’s just so different than anything else. It’s missing the Arkansas Tennessee Mississippi snow almost entirely You can see the gfs starting to come west with wave 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 15 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: What's your thoughts? For NYC Alberta clippers usually bring light precipitation because they move through quickly and have less QPF. And today's 1805Z prog shows the weak lows are too far east for S, S+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 55 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: This will very likely be a light snowfall event for NYC and nearby areas. Parts of New England could pick up a moderate snowfall. 28 minutes ago, Snow88 said: You can see the gfs starting to come west with wave 1 Our real shot is 1st wave, the disturbance out west crashing out Ridge isn’t helping either, the trough axis and position of the ULL isn’t remotely favorable, I’m a weenie , but I just can’t materialize a way wave 2 comes up coast, if we can’t trend our 1st wave closer to the coast and amplify our lead SW, once it hits warmer waters we can pump back some moderate snows into the area and into SNE... I’d say 3-6” is our high shot with 1-3” more likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 24 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Our real shot is 1st wave, the disturbance out west crashing out Ridge isn’t helping either, the trough axis and position of the ULL isn’t remotely favorable, I’m a weenie , but I just can’t materialize a way wave 2 comes up coast, if we can’t trend our 1st wave closer to the coast and amplify our lead SW, once it hits warmer waters we can pump back some moderate snows into the area and into SNE... I’d say 3-6” is our high shot with 1-3” more likely My thinking is that wave 2 isn’t a player for most of our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 3 hours ago, forkyfork said: what do i have to do to convince people to stop looking at snow maps 2x4 upside da head? When you figure it out use the same technique to quell the modelology and flip it back to meteorology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Gefs are about .1-.2 LE, more Eastern NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 56 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: My thinking is that wave 2 isn’t a player for most of our region. Don , I believe the western members of the EPS , I think the models are missing the WAR. I am buying the last wave for a moderate event for coastal locations across LI and on into SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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