UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 11 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: You moved further north again? 6 minutes ago, Rjay said: He'll be in Plattsburgh before we know it. Pretty sure I know where I live... I’m exactly 17 miles from 84 interchange Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 5 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: How are you getting that from the 15z HRRR? Look at the radar simulation at the end of the run. The end of the 16z HRRR shows a decent slug of precip overhead but that’s at 10z (5am) and things are moving East quickly. This will be over by 9-10am in most locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Pretty sure I know where I live... I’m exactly 17 miles from 84 interchange Yeah, if you drive...as the crow flies New Paltz is only 15 miles from 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The end of the 16z HRRR shows a decent slug of precip overhead but that’s at 10z (5am) and things are moving East quickly. This will be over by 9-10am in most locations. Can you post the hrrr sim radar for 7 am? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 7 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Yeah, if you drive...as the crow flies New Paltz is only 15 miles from 84. Lol... apologies... 11.9 miles... so instead of “about” 20 I should have said “about 10”, I’ll distance track next time to paint a more accurate picture for someone that lives nowhere near here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 14 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: Anyone notice the unusual distribution of arctic air to the southwest? Noon (eastern) temperatures in the single digits in western KY, and a few hundred miles almost due north of there its in the mid 20s in Chicago. Winter storm warning for freezing rain in Houston. Brrrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 8 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Can you post the hrrr sim radar for 7 am? It's not available yet. However this is 5AM on the 16z HRRR. 17z is running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Euro totals, keep in mind it doesn't show anything for under 1" If this crazy cutoff were to verify I would have 4-6" and Paramus would have under an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It's not available yet. However this is 5AM on the 16z HRRR. 17z is running. Thanks. Just trying to figure how long before 7 am is "long before". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Riveting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Euro totals, keep in mind it doesn't show anything for under 1" If this crazy cutoff were to verify I would have 4-6" and Paramus would have under an inch. I can believe this cut off. Ridgewood always is the dividing line for close events like this. I’m not expecting much here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Thanks. Just trying to figure how long before 7 am is "long before". @rocklandwx's statement that it was mostly done by 12z isn't entirely accurate. But the peak of the storm in terms of precipitation intensity should be winding down by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Winter Storm Warning now in affect for Sussex Co. NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: Winter Storm Warning now in affect for Sussex Co. NJ Upton is going with only a 10% chance of 5" or more in Paramus. That in of itself is very telling as the colder solutions have that area solidly in the 4-6" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 6AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 42 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The end of the 16z HRRR shows a decent slug of precip overhead but that’s at 10z (5am) and things are moving East quickly. This will be over by 9-10am in most locations. You made an incorrect statement based on the 15z. Now you are moving the goal post. SOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: You made an incorrect statement based on the 15z. Now you are moving the goal post. SOS. You obviously didn't bother to read what I personally posted. The height of this storm is done by 12z for most locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: You obviously didn't bother to read what I personally posted. The height of this storm is done by 12z for most locations. I read way too much of it. I wish there was a lot less to read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 35 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Winter storm warning for freezing rain in Houston. Brrrr Some areas in Montana and North Dakota got very close to their record highest pressures for January yesterday. It was impressive seeing hourly weather reports with pressures over 31.00. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Suns out on the south shore. This ones looking like toast here. If we can get a nice thump at the end we may salvage an inch or two but that will be totally reliant on heavier rates bringing down the cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: His 15 inches just melted , I think he will live. That’s actually not entirely true. The cold ocean flow prevented a total meltdown from the blizzard. At least at my house on the south shore. I still have a decent amount of natural snow left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: Okay and your point? Didn’t have 15” here in a storm this year but I had more than that last March. I can’t complain, this storm will put me near average. Point is , telling him to enjoy his rain is unnecessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 28 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: I read way too much of it. I wish there was a lot less to read. Getting ready for our rainstorm? 40 here and blazing sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: unreal. People go into full meltdown mode in these event and the chest thumping is hilarious... The distance between Newburgh and Riverhead is only about 150 miles but in terms of sensible weather it might as well be 1500 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, psv88 said: Getting ready for our rainstorm? 40 here and blazing sunshine. It certainly has turned into a beautify blue sky day. Up to 43 here and a mile north it is still hovering near freezing. I guess the water in the sound is pretty cold. I'm not enthused about our prospects tomorrow, but I also don't think this afternoons warmth will have much bearing on what comes after midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Alrighty then. Everyone get that out of their system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poker2015 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 I feel like this could be a very frustrating storm for my area. From all the maps, I'm literally on the rain/snow line for accumulations...maybe I'll get lucky this time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, gravitylover said: Then don't make so many. Keep some of the thoughts to yourself until you're better able to verify that they will be correct. It's not just you, there are a couple of posters here that do the same thing. I haven't made an incorrect post about this storm yet. I was one of the first people to point out yesterday that the low level warmth needed to be watched and I was dismissed. Extrapolating the HRRR a few hours isn't rocket science, especially when you have other guidance to compare it to. Look how little precip falls on the 12z Euro after 12z tomorrow. This isn't rocket science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 6 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: It certainly has turned into a beautify blue sky day. Up to 43 here and a mile north it is still hovering near freezing. I guess the water in the sound is pretty cold. I'm not enthused about our prospects tomorrow, but I also don't think this afternoons warmth will have much bearing on what comes after midnight. I noticed that the south shore is colder than mid island right now. Ocean and sound keeping the beaches cooler today, inland LI is up into the 40s. Almost like a sea breeze today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 The tail end of the 18z HRRR is coming in a tick colder. That makes a difference for NE NJ and Rockland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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