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1/16-17 Anafrontal/Coastal Low Snows Disco/Obs


Zelocita Weather

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5 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

How are you getting that from the 15z HRRR?  Look at the radar simulation at the end of the run.

The end of the 16z HRRR shows a decent slug of precip overhead but that’s at 10z (5am) and things are moving East quickly. This will be over by 9-10am in most locations. 

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7 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Yeah, if you drive...as the crow flies New Paltz is only 15 miles from 84.

Lol... apologies... 11.9 miles... so instead of “about” 20 I should have said  “about 10”, I’ll distance track next time to paint a more accurate  picture for someone that lives nowhere near here 

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14 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Anyone notice the unusual distribution of arctic air to the southwest?

Noon (eastern) temperatures in the single digits in western KY, and a few hundred miles almost due north of there its in the mid 20s in Chicago.

Winter storm warning for freezing rain in Houston. Brrrr 

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2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Euro totals, keep in mind it doesn't show anything for under 1"

If this crazy cutoff were to verify I would have 4-6" and Paramus would have under an inch.

5a5e3e626b2c8.png

I can believe this cut off. Ridgewood always is the dividing line for close events like this. I’m not expecting much here. 

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35 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Winter storm warning for freezing rain in Houston. Brrrr 

Some areas in Montana and North Dakota got very close to their record highest pressures for January yesterday. It was impressive seeing hourly weather reports with pressures over 31.00.

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1 minute ago, psv88 said:

Getting ready for our rainstorm?

40 here and blazing sunshine.

It certainly has turned into a beautify blue sky day.  Up to 43 here and a mile north it is still hovering near freezing.  I guess the water in the sound is pretty cold.

I'm not enthused about our prospects tomorrow, but I also don't think this afternoons warmth will have much bearing on what comes after midnight.

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1 minute ago, gravitylover said:

Then don't make so many. Keep some of the thoughts to yourself until you're better able to verify that they will be correct. It's not just you, there are a couple of posters here that do the same thing.

I haven't made an incorrect post about this storm yet.

I was one of the first people to point out yesterday that the low level warmth needed to be watched and I was dismissed. 

Extrapolating the HRRR a few hours isn't rocket science, especially when you have other guidance to compare it to.

Look how little precip falls on the 12z Euro after 12z tomorrow. This isn't rocket science.

5a5e4e4438304.png

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6 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

It certainly has turned into a beautify blue sky day.  Up to 43 here and a mile north it is still hovering near freezing.  I guess the water in the sound is pretty cold.

I'm not enthused about our prospects tomorrow, but I also don't think this afternoons warmth will have much bearing on what comes after midnight.

I noticed that the south shore is colder than mid island right now. Ocean and sound keeping the beaches cooler today, inland LI is up into the 40s. Almost like a sea breeze today...

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