SleetStormNJ Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Canadian shows potential freezing rain threat west of the city in NJ. Should we buy or sell on this occurring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: On tidbits it was warmer. Cut back from NJ through coastal CT. If this trend does not stop 84 will be in trouble. It was playing catch-up imo... south of Orange County was the cutoff for heavier snows I’d expect someone in duchess maybe Poughkeepsie jackpots for our area, then extreme NWCT, and WMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 12 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Finally lol, been watching from the sidelines for as many seasons in recent memory Things started improving for the interior with the storm last March. Since then, it has been a back and forth between interior and coast jackpots. 3-14-17....interior....12-9-17....interior....12-14/15-17....coast....1-4-18.....coast....1-17-18....interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 It’s prolly time to let go of the globals, they’re gonna waffle back and fourth 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Things started improving for the interior with the storm last March. Since then, it has been a back and forth between interior and coast jackpots. 3-14-17....interior....12-9-17....interior....12-14/15-17....coast....1-4-18.....coast....1-17-18....interior It’s been a while since we had an “everyone wins” how did coast do in last years blizzard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: It’s prolly time to let go of the globals, they’re gonna waffle back and fourth It’s been a while since we had an “everyone wins” how did coast do in last years blizzard? Was mainly a slizzard here in Harlem. About 8-10" of compacted ice pellets. Impressive QPF nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 14 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: 3/14/17? That was a big one up this way. A notch below the snowicane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 15Z HRRR has NYC around 35-36 during the height of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: 15Z HRRR has NYC around 35-36 during the height of the storm. That is not the height of the storm on HRRR. It actually hasn't done much of anything yet in NYC up to that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 8 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: It’s been a while since we had an “everyone wins” That almost never happens. For the interior to jackpot the coast needs to taint. For the coast to jackpot the interior gets fringed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 58 minutes ago, bluewave said: Temps out on LI are already a few degrees warmer than guidance was suggesting at 34 now in ISP. It actually got up to 36 here in Smithtown earlier and is now back down to 34 as of noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Current temp is 36 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 12 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: It’s prolly time to let go of the globals, they’re gonna waffle back and fourth It’s been a while since we had an “everyone wins” how did coast do in last years blizzard? Front end thump here before the changeover last March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 31 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: TWC just changed their forecast to mostly rain for coastal CT. I expect NWS to follow There's going to be an insane cutoff somewhere b/w here and DXR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 11 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: That is not the height of the storm on HRRR. It actually hasn't done much of anything yet in NYC up to that point. Not much falls after 12z-15z anywhere outside of E LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 22 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: It was playing catch-up imo... south of Orange County was the cutoff for heavier snows I’d expect someone in duchess maybe Poughkeepsie jackpots for our area, then extreme NWCT, and WMA The guidance keeps getting warmer south of Orange County. It’s looking very likely that Rockland starts off as all rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 12 minutes ago, snywx said: That almost never happens. For the interior to jackpot the coast needs to taint. For the coast to jackpot the interior gets fringed That’s why 96 and PD2 are so special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Not much falls after 12z-15z anywhere outside of E LI. Yea, this is all over and done west of the city long before 12z on the HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, snowman19 said: Yea, this is all over and done west of the city long before 12z on the HRRR People think i’m being biased towards the coast. Read the models, it’s not difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 7 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The guidance keeps getting warmer south of Orange County. It’s looking very likely that Rockland starts off as all rain No. Soundings show snow there IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: No. Soundings show snow there IMO. 925mb has trended remarkably warmer since yesterday to the point where they never cool in time because the surface low remains very weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: People think i’m being biased towards the coast. Read the models, it’s not difficult. I live right on the coast and I agree with you. This one just isn’t for us. I definitely can’t complain though given the huge impact around here from the 1/4 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: No. Soundings show snow there IMO. Look at 925mb, it’s getting warmer and warmer on new guidance. The surface is also starting warmer. When it does turn to snow, the boundary layer stays extremely borderline and ratios are going to be horrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 I’ll give you a good benchmark. If I and @BxEngine start off as rain, then LI and Coastal NJ are in trouble. If @UlsterCountySnowZ starts off as rain tonight, then almost all of us are screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I’ll give you a good benchmark. If I and @BxEngine start off as rain, then LI and Coastal NJ are in trouble. If @UlsterCountySnowZ starts off as rain tonight, then almost all of us are screwed. If i start as rain we’re all in serious trouble lol, I’m about 20 miles north of 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: If i start as rain we’re all in serious trouble lol, I’m about 20 miles north of 84 You moved further north again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: You moved further north again? He'll be in Plattsburgh before we know it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 25 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Not much falls after 12z-15z anywhere outside of E LI. How are you getting that from the 15z HRRR? Look at the radar simulation at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Currently 27F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Our LP has formed of the coast as of now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Anyone notice the unusual distribution of arctic air to the southwest? Noon (eastern) temperatures in the single digits in western KY, and a few hundred miles almost due north of there its in the mid 20s in Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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