PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 13 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Final Call Coating to 1" inside the purple 1-3" inside the black 2-4" inside the green 4-6" inside the dark blue 6"+ inside the red A C to an inch in the CPA ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 heavy precip on the RGEM early morning, nearly .75" liquid equivalent. low level warmth is much deeper on overnight guidance, but i still think that if this heavy precip materializes it will quickly flip to heavy snow before it ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 I do think that the mesoscale models are showing rain or a mix in areas that would be snow. A surface temperature of 33-34 isn't going to be rain when the rest of the column is below freezing. When I look at the soundings I don't see anything glaring. This is a heavy wet snow for places like Central Park, the Bronx, Westchester and Northern Queens. It's a bit more dicey for any areas that face the ocean. This is why my snow map has most of NYC in the 1-3" with the Northern boroughs more in the 2-4" range. I think Westchester County does real well and I wouldn't be shocked if Central Park did decently as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: A C to an inch in the CPA ? I guess you could extend that black line a bit more Southwest into PA but I wasn't worried about it since that's not our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: heavy precip on the RGEM early morning, nearly .75" liquid equivalent. low level warmth is much deeper on overnight guidance, but i still think that if this heavy precip materializes it will quickly flip to heavy snow before it ends. RGEM has consistently shown most of Long Island staying rain throughout, though I don't disagree with your reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 12z RGEM Rgem has 1 such of QPF on the coast. Even though the maps show rain and mix, wouldn't the heavier precip and intensity be snow since the temps are close? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I do think that the mesoscale models are showing rain or a mix in areas that would be snow. A surface temperature of 33-34 isn't going to be rain when the rest of the column is below freezing. When I look at the soundings I don't see anything glaring. This is a heavy wet snow for places like Central Park, the Bronx, Westchester and Northern Queens. It's a bit more dicey for any areas that face the ocean. This is why my snow map has most of NYC in the 1-3" with the Northern boroughs more in the 2-4" range. I think Westchester County does real well and I wouldn't be shocked if Central Park did decently as well. I’m in the northern part of Brooklyn and even I do well with these type of events. Coney Island would get 1” and I would get 2-3” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 The 12z RGEM is so warm initially that it even has me raining to start. I do think that the rain snow line here should be about 20 miles further Southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, EastonSN+ said: Rgem has 1 such of QPF on the coast. Even though the maps show rain and mix, wouldn't the heavier precip and intensity be snow since the temps are close? RGEM maps usually are slightly biased on the warm side. They showed Boston raining for a decent amount of time during the Blizzard a few weeks ago. That being said, the models seem to be trending slightly warmer for the coast. The one thing that can save the coast is that the upper level are cool and models often miss low level cold. We shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I do think that the mesoscale models are showing rain or a mix in areas that would be snow. A surface temperature of 33-34 isn't going to be rain when the rest of the column is below freezing. When I look at the soundings I don't see anything glaring. This is a heavy wet snow for places like Central Park, the Bronx, Westchester and Northern Queens. It's a bit more dicey for any areas that face the ocean. This is why my snow map has most of NYC in the 1-3" with the Northern boroughs more in the 2-4" range. I think Westchester County does real well and I wouldn't be shocked if Central Park did decently as well. Hopefully the HRR when it’s in range will be able to pinpoint this accurately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, dmillz25 said: I’m in the northern part of Brooklyn and even I do well with these type of events. Coney Island would get 1” and I would get 2-3” You can group Northern Brooklyn in there too, but I think the dividing line is probably close to the LIE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, weatherfreeeeak said: Hopefully the HRR when it’s in range will be able to pinpoint this accurately It's early but the long range HRRR is showing the mixing line even further NW than the RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: RGEM has consistently shown most of Long Island staying rain throughout, though I don't disagree with your reasoning. yeah, most guidance shows this. the RGEM has had a warm bias in the low levels this winter - see the xmas snow in BOS and ice the week before. no doubt it will torch initially with the SE 925 flow but once that goes NW it should collapse quickly SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, purduewx80 said: yeah, most guidance shows this. the RGEM has had a warm bias in the low levels this winter - see the xmas snow in BOS and ice the week before. no doubt it will torch initially with the SE 925 flow but once that goes NW it should collapse quickly SE. This is why yesterday I was worried about the initial Southwest flow. Once the SLP takes over it will flip the winds to out of the Northeast, but it will also be pulling the moisture away with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: Uptons snowmap has 4 inches for Manhattan and 3 inches for jFK with less further east. SELL SELL SELL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Ouch, 12z GFS coming in warm. The warm air is actually moving further inland here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Freezing line doesn't start moving back SE until 11-12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 And the warm air never really moves out on the GFS. Surface stuck in the mid 30's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 42 minutes ago, Animal said: This is a big deal This is very reminiscent of my childhood in the 1980's.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: Ouch, 12z GFS coming in warm. The warm air is actually moving further inland here. Really don't think you can discount the warm nose at this point. It's easier to with NWS stalwarts going bullish but I've been burned by that before (see March 2017). They might be good but they're also really bad at admitting they're wrong. Something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 GFS HOUR 24 KNYC / COLTS NECK .2 -4 AT 850 - 1 AT 925 33/32 IT`S ACTUALLY COLDER AT 925 THAN 6Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Also not much precip on the GFS. Maybe .25-.35 for the area. Need to go to Orange County to see .4-.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 I’m not that concerned about GFS surface temps. I’d look at models like the Euro and RGEM for those. For the city on east though it doesn’t matter, they’re all warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: I cannot help but say I told you so, to many on here that wanted me tarred and feathered yesterday. This is even a putrid run for my area. If correct nobody outside of the higher terrain receives more than a coating. Just now, NJwx85 said: I cannot help but say I told you so, to many on here that wanted me tarred and feathered yesterday. This is even a putrid run for my area. If correct nobody outside of the higher terrain receives more than a coating. GFS shows snow just to the west of NYC Colder than 6z Better run for inland areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, jm1220 said: I’m not that concerned about GFS surface temps. I’d look at models like the Euro and RGEM for those. For the city on east though it doesn’t matter, they’re all warm. 33 isn't warm at all for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 The 925mb low tracks over LI. That means the best lift is further NW which is why the precip is generally light near the coast. If the SLP actually tracks over LI it's going to be curtains for a lot of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, mikem81 said: Also not much precip on the GFS. Maybe .25-.35 for the area. Need to go to Orange County to see .4-.5 Right which is the issue for the city on South . There is no warm layer on the HI RES NAM or GFS. The moisture is N and W , good for you guys. We just had 15 and you guys ate dust , so we hope you guys do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 33 isn't warm at all for snow It's not just the surface. This is as precip is ending. 925mb is above freezing just East of NYC and it's one of the coldest panels while precip is still falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 27 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I guess you could extend that black line a bit more Southwest into PA but I wasn't worried about it since that's not our area. I see no reason that 4 to 6" amounts won't stretch back along 287 in Morris and somerset. There's likely to be a sharp cutoff southeast of there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 looks like an early or late season snow, you want to be above 500 feet and NW of 287 for this event, NW NJ into Northern Westchester look good, I-84 should have best snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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