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1/16-17 Anafrontal/Coastal Low Snows Disco/Obs


Zelocita Weather

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I do think that the mesoscale models are showing rain or a mix in areas that would be snow. A surface temperature of 33-34 isn't going to be rain when the rest of the column is below freezing. When I look at the soundings I don't see anything glaring. This is a heavy wet snow for places like Central Park, the Bronx, Westchester and Northern Queens. It's a bit more dicey for any areas that face the ocean. This is why my snow map has most of NYC in the 1-3" with the Northern boroughs more in the 2-4" range. I think Westchester County does real well and I wouldn't be shocked if Central Park did decently as well.

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3 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

heavy precip on the RGEM early morning, nearly .75" liquid equivalent. low level warmth is much deeper on overnight guidance, but i still think that if this heavy precip materializes it will quickly flip to heavy snow before it ends. 

RGEM has consistently shown most of Long Island staying rain throughout, though I don't disagree with your reasoning.

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3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I do think that the mesoscale models are showing rain or a mix in areas that would be snow. A surface temperature of 33-34 isn't going to be rain when the rest of the column is below freezing. When I look at the soundings I don't see anything glaring. This is a heavy wet snow for places like Central Park, the Bronx, Westchester and Northern Queens. It's a bit more dicey for any areas that face the ocean. This is why my snow map has most of NYC in the 1-3" with the Northern boroughs more in the 2-4" range. I think Westchester County does real well and I wouldn't be shocked if Central Park did decently as well.

I’m in the northern part of Brooklyn and even I do well with these type of events. Coney Island would get 1” and I would get 2-3”

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Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Rgem has 1 such of QPF on the coast. Even though the maps show rain and mix, wouldn't the heavier precip and intensity be snow since the temps are close?

RGEM maps usually are slightly biased on the warm side. They showed Boston raining for a decent amount of time during the Blizzard a few weeks ago. That being said, the models seem to be trending slightly warmer for the coast.  The one thing that can save the coast is that the upper level are cool and models often miss low level cold. We shall see

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7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I do think that the mesoscale models are showing rain or a mix in areas that would be snow. A surface temperature of 33-34 isn't going to be rain when the rest of the column is below freezing. When I look at the soundings I don't see anything glaring. This is a heavy wet snow for places like Central Park, the Bronx, Westchester and Northern Queens. It's a bit more dicey for any areas that face the ocean. This is why my snow map has most of NYC in the 1-3" with the Northern boroughs more in the 2-4" range. I think Westchester County does real well and I wouldn't be shocked if Central Park did decently as well.

Hopefully the HRR when it’s in range will be able to pinpoint this accurately 

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4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

RGEM has consistently shown most of Long Island staying rain throughout, though I don't disagree with your reasoning.

yeah, most guidance shows this. the RGEM has had a warm bias in the low levels this winter - see the xmas snow in BOS and ice the week before. no doubt it will torch initially with the SE 925 flow but once that goes NW it should collapse quickly SE.

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Just now, purduewx80 said:

yeah, most guidance shows this. the RGEM has had a warm bias in the low levels this winter - see the xmas snow in BOS and ice the week before. no doubt it will torch initially with the SE 925 flow but once that goes NW it should collapse quickly SE.

This is why yesterday I was worried about the initial Southwest flow. Once the SLP takes over it will flip the winds to out of the Northeast, but it will also be pulling the moisture away with it.

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

Ouch, 12z GFS coming in warm. The warm air is actually moving further inland here.

5a5e1acd71eda.png

Really don't think you can discount the warm nose at this point. It's easier to with NWS stalwarts going bullish but I've been burned by that before (see March 2017). They might be good but they're also really bad at admitting they're wrong. 

Something to watch. 

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

I cannot help but say I told you so, to many on here that wanted me tarred and feathered yesterday.

This is even a putrid run for my area. If correct nobody outside of the higher terrain receives more than a coating.

 

Just now, NJwx85 said:

I cannot help but say I told you so, to many on here that wanted me tarred and feathered yesterday.

This is even a putrid run for my area. If correct nobody outside of the higher terrain receives more than a coating.

GFS shows snow just to the west of NYC

Colder than 6z

Better run for inland areas

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1 minute ago, mikem81 said:

Also not much precip on the GFS. Maybe .25-.35 for the area. Need to go to Orange County to see .4-.5

Right which is the issue for the city on South . There is no warm layer on the HI RES NAM or GFS.

 

The moisture is N and W , good for you guys.  We just had 15 and you guys ate dust , so we hope you guys do well. 

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