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1/16-17 Anafrontal/Coastal Low Snows Disco/Obs


Zelocita Weather

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I think this ultimately comes down to where the coastal develops. Models yesterday have been bringing west each run. Last run of the GFS and NAM actually developed it slightly east. Then again timing is key. Also need the coastal to develop earlier so the winds go from the SW to NE around NYC area. Should be interesting to see how this plays out given that this whole setup for the city and immediate suburbs comes down to 1-2 degrees at the 925 and surface levels... That's extremely close.

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4 hours ago, tmagan said:

I think three to five inches for Manhattan is too much, I'd say one to two inches on grassy surfaces only.

This is not a grassy surfaces storm. It has been cold so any snow that does fall will stick. I’ll be on the far UWS 120th street and I think it’s a solid even there. At home here on the south shore I’m not expecting much. 

Another factor not being discussed is the very cold near shore water temps. During our coldest winters we have seen Long Island do very well in marginal events due to cold water temps. As a result I wouldn’t completely write the Island off. This little factor is not considered by the models. 

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5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Looks like the 12z NAM still warm. Hopefully like u have stated its an overestimation of the warm punch.

Seems crazy with those surface temps depicted in the nam that Upton is still insisting on all snow west of the city. It goes from 34 to 37 overnight before dipping back down to freezing by morning. I guess we'll see

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2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Maybe they think that the warm punch will not be that severe

The NAM simulated radar has it starting as rain and still all rain at 8z tomorrow all the way up into Rockland County. It doesn’t switch to snow for us until after that. You don’t get all snow until in Orange County

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