weatherpruf Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Nothing doing here in Woodbridge, and not much is expected. Good luck to the folks NW and be safe out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Pixie dust started at 6:15 am. Light snow currently, with a quick dusting on all surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 I think this ultimately comes down to where the coastal develops. Models yesterday have been bringing west each run. Last run of the GFS and NAM actually developed it slightly east. Then again timing is key. Also need the coastal to develop earlier so the winds go from the SW to NE around NYC area. Should be interesting to see how this plays out given that this whole setup for the city and immediate suburbs comes down to 1-2 degrees at the 925 and surface levels... That's extremely close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveTinNY Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Very light snow dusting the ground in Spring Valley/Rockland County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stu Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Light snow even falling in Glen Ridge NJ. 'Tis probably time for the observation thread. No? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Uptons snowmap has 4 inches for Manhattan and 3 inches for jFK with less further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 11 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Uptons snowmap has 4 inches for Manhattan and 3 inches for jFK with less further east. Seems odd that they actually bumped up totals for the city overnight considering the various model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said: Seems odd that they actually bumped up totals for the city overnight considering the various model runs. This is still worth watching Any east shift will change the outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 4 hours ago, tmagan said: I think three to five inches for Manhattan is too much, I'd say one to two inches on grassy surfaces only. This is not a grassy surfaces storm. It has been cold so any snow that does fall will stick. I’ll be on the far UWS 120th street and I think it’s a solid even there. At home here on the south shore I’m not expecting much. Another factor not being discussed is the very cold near shore water temps. During our coldest winters we have seen Long Island do very well in marginal events due to cold water temps. As a result I wouldn’t completely write the Island off. This little factor is not considered by the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 8 minutes ago, Snow88 said: This is still worth watching Any east shift will change the outcome Or even an overestimation of the slight warmth punch. That’s not a deep tropical warm punch coming in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Temps aren't budging much here. Been around 20F the past couple of hours, getting a bit excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Snow stopped at 8:00 am; a brief appetizer of potential? Temps were holding at 22. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 17 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: Or even an overestimation of the slight warmth punch. That’s not a deep tropical warm punch coming in... Looks like the 12z NAM still warm. Hopefully like u have stated its an overestimation of the warm punch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, EastonSN+ said: Looks like the 12z NAM still warm. Hopefully like u have stated its an overestimation of the warm punch. It's more a westward shift close in like we have been seeing in recent times with most of our storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Looks like the 12z NAM still warm. Hopefully like u have stated its an overestimation of the warm punch. Seems crazy with those surface temps depicted in the nam that Upton is still insisting on all snow west of the city. It goes from 34 to 37 overnight before dipping back down to freezing by morning. I guess we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 12z 3k NAM crushes NNJ into LHV. 6-8". Lollies up to 10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 The snow the 12km NAM DOES show for the coast also doesn’t make a whole lot of sense either. The setup is so non conducive at 500 that we would see that much precip from 12-15Z behind the low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 18 minutes ago, bluewave said: It's more a westward shift close in like we have been seeing in recent times with most of our storms. What's throwing me off is NWS still has the wwa for CT coast. 3 to 5. Just saw 3k. Does give coast approx. 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, EastonSN+ said: What's throwing me off is NWS still has the wwa for CT coast. 3 to 5. Maybe they think that the warm punch will not be that severe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 5 minutes ago, nesussxwx said: 12z 3k NAM crushes NNJ into LHV. 6-8". NAM is a crush job for the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Maybe they think that the warm punch will not be that severe The NAM simulated radar has it starting as rain and still all rain at 8z tomorrow all the way up into Rockland County. It doesn’t switch to snow for us until after that. You don’t get all snow until in Orange County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Hi Res Nam is colder for the whole area. Inland areas do very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 11 minutes ago, snywx said: NAM is a crush job for the interior. What's your temperature out there? 12z 12km NAM oddly had NWNJ starting as rain briefly before a changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, nesussxwx said: What's your temperature out there? 12z 12k NAM oddly had NWNJ starting as rain briefly before a changeover. I'm in Brooklyn till the early afternoon but there is a NYSmesonet 1 mile north of my place. It's showing 22* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 22 minutes ago, nesussxwx said: 12z 3k NAM crushes NNJ into LHV. 6-8". Lollies up to 10". This is a big deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Final Call Coating to 1" inside the purple 1-3" inside the black 2-4" inside the green 4-6" inside the dark blue 6"+ inside the red Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Hi Res Nam shows 2-4 inches for NYC with more to the west and less to the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Final Call Coating to 1" inside the purple 1-3" inside the black 2-4" inside the green 4-6" inside the dark blue 6"+ inside the red Looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 12z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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