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1/16-17 Anafrontal/Coastal Low Snows Disco/Obs


Zelocita Weather

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9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Nice storm for the interior folks, the coast has been getting all the fun lately. 

i do like how models have trended, however, i believe the potential for bust and us interior folks to get our hopes up is there, this is a weak LP, that were relying on to deliver, the slighest issue in timing/track would be the difference between 1-3 and 6-8 imo

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26 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

GFS just came in much warmer too. Almost no snow accumulation here. Really going to be disappointing if this ends up being a rain event. 

It's the GFS so take its surface temps with a grain of salt, but amped at the end has been the way to go for almost every recent event. There's lots of warm air to overcome with the initial easterly flow, and the track is getting closer to the coast each run. The Euro having the 925mb low going into E CT screws it from the city on east. The RGEM also being very warm at this stage should be worrisome. 

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5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It's the GFS so take its surface temps with a grain of salt, but amped at the end has been the way to go for almost every recent event. There's lots of warm air to overcome with the initial easterly flow, and the track is getting closer to the coast each run. The Euro having the 925mb low going into E CT screws it from the city on east. The RGEM also being very warm at this stage should be worrisome. 

850s still look pretty cold on the 0z GFS. At hr 33, NYC is like -5C 850mb temps. 

Total precip is 0.25-0.5".

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22 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

i do like how models have trended, however, i believe the potential for bust and us interior folks to get our hopes up is there, this is a weak LP, that were relying on to deliver, the slighest issue in timing/track would be the difference between 1-3 and 6-8 imo

If this follows the seasonal trend, then the low will get a bit stronger/more amped. I think 6+ looks good for N/W of metro folks.

Probably a general 1-3 for NYC and areas near the coast down to central NJ. I'm thinking a wet 32-34F type snow for many.

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This winter's theme of westward trending in the final 48 hours has caught up to us on the coastal plain. This event looks like a "north and west event" with the typical geographical cutoffs including 287, 78, and 80. Suspect this is a Sussex County/Pocono special. White rain then period of non-accumulating snow for the city. 

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46 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

WWA hoisted for Manhattan and Bronx on north/west for 3-5 inches. Nothing for the lower boros or Long Island. Think this is a good call.

I think three to five inches for Manhattan is too much, I'd say one to two inches on grassy surfaces only.

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The 12z Euro yesterday mostly sealed this deal for me in terms of coastal areas. Amped and west has been the hot hand over and over. A slight cold trend could still help Manhattan and the Bronx, since they’re right on the edge, and they could see a few inches. For the immediate coast IMO this is an inch or less. Around I-84 should be 6+. 

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