UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Nice storm for the interior folks, the coast has been getting all the fun lately. i do like how models have trended, however, i believe the potential for bust and us interior folks to get our hopes up is there, this is a weak LP, that were relying on to deliver, the slighest issue in timing/track would be the difference between 1-3 and 6-8 imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 NYC is getting snow tomorrow it'l taint for a while but tomorrow night I think we'll get 3 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 26 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: GFS just came in much warmer too. Almost no snow accumulation here. Really going to be disappointing if this ends up being a rain event. It's the GFS so take its surface temps with a grain of salt, but amped at the end has been the way to go for almost every recent event. There's lots of warm air to overcome with the initial easterly flow, and the track is getting closer to the coast each run. The Euro having the 925mb low going into E CT screws it from the city on east. The RGEM also being very warm at this stage should be worrisome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 5 minutes ago, jm1220 said: It's the GFS so take its surface temps with a grain of salt, but amped at the end has been the way to go for almost every recent event. There's lots of warm air to overcome with the initial easterly flow, and the track is getting closer to the coast each run. The Euro having the 925mb low going into E CT screws it from the city on east. The RGEM also being very warm at this stage should be worrisome. 850s still look pretty cold on the 0z GFS. At hr 33, NYC is like -5C 850mb temps. Total precip is 0.25-0.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 22 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: i do like how models have trended, however, i believe the potential for bust and us interior folks to get our hopes up is there, this is a weak LP, that were relying on to deliver, the slighest issue in timing/track would be the difference between 1-3 and 6-8 imo If this follows the seasonal trend, then the low will get a bit stronger/more amped. I think 6+ looks good for N/W of metro folks. Probably a general 1-3 for NYC and areas near the coast down to central NJ. I'm thinking a wet 32-34F type snow for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 GGEM with the interior weenie run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 UKMET looks like its milder as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 This winter's theme of westward trending in the final 48 hours has caught up to us on the coastal plain. This event looks like a "north and west event" with the typical geographical cutoffs including 287, 78, and 80. Suspect this is a Sussex County/Pocono special. White rain then period of non-accumulating snow for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Hi Res RGEM Blows precip intensity up along 84 interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Meanwhile WWA goes into effect at 10am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 32 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: UKMET looks like its milder as well Ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Ulster Jackpot?.....hugging the HRDPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 so why are the latest trends looking like rain further West is it that the system is moving more West or that the winds off the ocean are warming the air or both or some other combo ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Euro warm push also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 How about the euro 36hr? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Ukmet 6-10 Hudson Valley, pretty excited about this sneaky clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Ukmet 6-10 Hudson Valley, pretty excited about this sneaky clipper Looks solid for nw nj too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Ukmet 6-10 Hudson Valley, pretty excited about this sneaky clipper I would gladly take this and run !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Kind of hard to go against the models when most are showing that warm push for some coastal sections although I still wouldn't discount things cooling off in the next couple of model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 6z nam drops the hammer with qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 7 minutes ago, Animal said: 6z nam drops the hammer with qpf. 3km snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 WWA hoisted for Manhattan and Bronx on north/west for 3-5 inches. Nothing for the lower boros or Long Island. Think this is a good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 46 minutes ago, weathermedic said: WWA hoisted for Manhattan and Bronx on north/west for 3-5 inches. Nothing for the lower boros or Long Island. Think this is a good call. I think three to five inches for Manhattan is too much, I'd say one to two inches on grassy surfaces only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 hour ago, weathermedic said: WWA hoisted for Manhattan and Bronx on north/west for 3-5 inches. Nothing for the lower boros or Long Island. Think this is a good call. I think an inch or two is a good call for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 What models had this happening? Man... https://twitter.com/stuostro/status/953117894358966272 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Advisory for 6-8”?!? Lol ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 The 12z Euro yesterday mostly sealed this deal for me in terms of coastal areas. Amped and west has been the hot hand over and over. A slight cold trend could still help Manhattan and the Bronx, since they’re right on the edge, and they could see a few inches. For the immediate coast IMO this is an inch or less. Around I-84 should be 6+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Roads already white here in West Point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, West Mtn NY said: Roads already white here in West Point Same here. Light snow and ground covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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