Animal Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: 0z nam doesn't bring snow in until after midnight 025-.5 for most folks tied to precip. Lost the lolipops of 0.50-0.75 again for the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: 0z nam doesn't bring snow in until after midnight Better than the 18z run. 18z gave us barely an inch, but the 0z run gives us around 2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: not having mid level temps widely available screwed over a lot of people. there was a sleet profile on the euro but it wasn't widely mentioned. ryan maue did post a cross section showing the warm layer but i didn't know about it until after the storm There was a pro met, retired, discussing it here the night before the storm, in which he thought we would have a lot of sleet in the NYC area, and that historically for the most part ( there are exceptions ) March storms tend not to produce killer amounts in the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Hi res has the freezing line on NYC Colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 19 minutes ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said: So 4” CNJ north has now become 1-2”, notes. I have 2 here in Colts Neck , 3 probably near the Driscoll. And 4 to 6 N and W of NYC on into N/E. I don't forecast for 11 acres bro But from 7 days out ? That's tidy . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 850/925 are below 0 at KNYC on the hi res NAM throughout. 33 BL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: 850/925 are below 0 at KNYC on the hi res NAM throughout. 33 BL. In the middle of the night....accumulating snow.... If it's thermal profile is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Wouldn’t rely too much on nam surface reflection, doesn’t line up well to me with the 500mb energy aloft, misput imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Lovin the 0z RGEM look. Interior peeps are gonna like it if its correct Upton may need to bump Orange county into a warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 PB Colts Neck and Snow88 have a passion for weather and their logic is spot on. They, amongst others offer a great deal to this forum and I look forward to their posts. I enjoy their input just as much as the red taggers. I remember ne.weather on usenet back in the 1990s and how personal and nasty that became. May that never happen here. OMG 'usenet'!? Brings back my old Unix days at Bell Labs, Holmdel! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Wow RGEM just came in as a mostly rain event even for areas slightly west of the city. That can't be right can it? Hard to believe this will be mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 0z RGEM.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 12 minutes ago, snywx said: Lovin the 0z RGEM look. Interior peeps are gonna like it if its correct Upton may need to bump Orange county into a warning Yea..hammers areas 25 miles n&w of the city. 6-10 on the map saw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Storm canceled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, snywx said: 0z RGEM.. Boston screwed as well. I'm ok with that. Climo for the win? Way warmer than 18z from that map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: Boston screwed as well. I'm ok with that. Climo for the win? Way warmer than 18z from that map... Def. warmer for the coast but much snowier for the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Ok, but let's first see on 0Z GFS, Ukie and Euro if it's a trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, snywx said: Def. warmer for the coast but much snowier for the interior. Oh yeah, maybe it has a stronger low? More warm fetch off the water and more QPF? Haven't seen surface maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Boston screwed as well. I'm ok with that. Climo for the win? Way warmer than 18z from that map...Climo? It’s mid January not November. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, sferic said: Ok, but let's first see on 0Z GFS, Ukie and Euro if it's a trend NAM was much colder and we haven't seen any model as warm as 0z RGEM just was. Right now I would assume it was just a bad run. I just can't see mostly rain even west of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, mranger48 said: Climo? It’s mid January not November. . Yeah? There' a reason they average almost 2x more snow up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 The RGEM is also dropping like 3-4 inches of snow in Atlanta while the NAM had 0. I'm not sure what model to believe right now anywhere between here and the SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 gfs bumps interior totals too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Keep ignoring that warm surface layer. I wouldn’t rule out a last minute tick back to a colder solution tomorrow but I think best case scenario is what the 12z guidance had for coastal areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 GFS just came in much warmer too. Almost no snow accumulation here. Really going to be disappointing if this ends up being a rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: gfs bumps interior totals too Do you have a snow map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigfoot Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 I’m here west of Albany ,and our go time is 7A.M. In the morning ,so my call is 3-5 for the 24hr.snow flakes....anybody else want to make a call ,because really models do not matter this close or far away lately it seems,in the pond on the bank..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Do you have a snow map? Its about 6-7" throughout O.C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 9 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: gfs bumps interior totals too Nice storm for the interior folks, the coast has been getting all the fun lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Nice storm for the interior folks, the coast has been getting all the fun lately. Dude ur declaring a victory already. Remember the people that give up early always lose. I don't think NYC gets screwed. It's been cold, the ground is frozen, permFrost is im surs colder the normal also. It' the coldest week of the year climatology. We got a coastal developing on the right side of us bear the benchmark I don't see this as rain especially coming in at night like most models have it. I'd say anyone east of Islip is good for a 3-6 inch. Some will taint in the beginning but look for a colder solution tomorrow. Don' ever give up otherwise you'll lose your trade! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.