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1/16-17 Anafrontal/Coastal Low Snows Disco/Obs


Zelocita Weather

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Pls excuse if posted.  Official NWS Forecast.  Enough for a Winter Weather Advisory if pattern verifies.  Winter Weather Advisory is issued by the National Weather Service of the United States when a low pressure system produces a combination of winter weather(snow, freezing rain, or sleet) that presents a hazard, but does not meet warning criteria.

Screen Shot 2018-01-15 at 6.03.24 PM.png

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6 minutes ago, WeatherFox said:

Pls excuse if posted.  Official NWS Forecast.  Enough for a Winter Weather Advisory if pattern verifies.  Winter Weather Advisory is issued by the National Weather Service of the United States when a low pressure system produces a combination of winter weather(snow, freezing rain, or sleet) that presents a hazard, but does not meet warning criteria.

Screen Shot 2018-01-15 at 6.03.24 PM.png

Be Prepared for either WWA being expanded - WSW issued or WWA being cancelled - this system has a high bust potential IMO

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1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

One of the Mets in the MA forum recently summed it up well when he said.  If the NAM is drum beating from 72 hours on with no real changes it’s onto the event.  If you see any waffling you can generally ignore it until inside 30

I mean, or you could think about how the model works - in particular, how it differs from other models - and weigh it more heavily in events that play to its 'strengths'....

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10 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

I disagree

Watch the end of January

Its been said by a few posters that this is one of those years when it wants to snow.  So far I don't agree with that assessment, but one way to earn that label would be to rack up some inches during the unfavorable periods.    

Probably right on the line of a decent little event here on the north shore of suffolk..

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7 minutes ago, Snowshack said:

Its been said by a few posters that this is one of those years when it wants to snow.  So far I don't agree with that assessment, but one way to earn that label would be to rack up some inches during the unfavorable periods.    

Probably right on the line of a decent little event here on the north shore of suffolk..

Even great winters have torchy and snowless periods. 95-96 had the 1/12/96 hugger that was just about all rain from the city on east and began the big melt of all the Blizzard snow. Even when "it wants to snow", the pattern does what it does and torches things when it wants. And the SE ridge can be a blessing as it's been a couple times already this year, or a curse like last March's storm that was a disaster for the coast. 

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2 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

This is no 2/13/14, but the north shore did very well in that storm and looking at 12z model soundings much of the north shore might do better this time as well.  Any heavier precip could be snow with an isothermal boundary layer here.  925 doesn't really make it past the north shore (except out east).  None of the models are especially far off from that being a possibility, except maybe the Euro...but I can't see Euro detail.

 

 

I had a foot in Bay Ridge in the 2/13/14 storm, right on the ocean. Not sure what people are talking about, that was a great storm for coastal areas of NYC.

Definitely happy to be in the Northeast Bronx for this one. Expecting 3-4" here...

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15 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Even great winters have torchy and snowless periods. 95-96 had the 1/12/96 hugger that was just about all rain from the city on east and began the big melt of all the Blizzard snow. Even when "it wants to snow", the pattern does what it does and torches things when it wants. And the SE ridge can be a blessing as it's been a couple times already this year, or a curse like last March's storm that was a disaster for the coast. 

Agreed, I was tying back to Goose's point about this potentially being the last snow event in January.    Torches and snow droughts are part of living in our area, but if this season is to earn the label of one that 'wants to snow', then it needs to find a way to sneak in an event or two during a long unfavorable period like the one that may be unfolding.

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16 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Even great winters have torchy and snowless periods. 95-96 had the 1/12/96 hugger that was just about all rain from the city on east and began the big melt of all the Blizzard snow. Even when "it wants to snow", the pattern does what it does and torches things when it wants. And the SE ridge can be a blessing as it's been a couple times already this year, or a curse like last March's storm that was a disaster for the coast. 

Last year's March storm was not "a disaster for the coast." Manhattan had 8-10", and we had 13" at my parents' place in Southern Westchester. Sure, it wasn't the 2 foot amounts some predicted, but a general 8-12" is nothing to sneeze at, especially in mid March.

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4 minutes ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said:

PB in trouble on this one. Never underestimate that warm push at 925 and a stale BL at the shore. Colts Neck isn’t getting snow out of this one. 

Where are you getting this from?  Neither GFS nor NAM gets 925 temps above about -3C in that area.  For that matter, 925s stay sub zero here too if those models are correct.

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12 minutes ago, nzucker said:

I had a foot in Bay Ridge in the 2/13/14 storm, right on the ocean. Not sure what people are talking about, that was a great storm for coastal areas of NYC.

Definitely happy to be in the Northeast Bronx for this one. Expecting 3-4" here...

On LI, the north shore of Suffolk had over a foot and the south shore of Nassau had less than half that much and rain.  It was a tough one for Long Beach.  There are no spotter reports from the south shore of Nassau from that day.  My guess is they were too disgusted to report.

...SUFFOLK COUNTY...
   COMMACK               15.1   700 AM  2/14  PUBLIC
   BAY SHORE             14.5   730 AM  2/14  NWS EMPLOYEE
   SMITHTOWN             13.5   900 AM  2/14  TRAINED SPOTTER
   EAST SETAUKET         12.8   630 AM  2/14  PUBLIC
   PORT JEFFERSON        12.8   745 AM  2/14  PUBLIC
   NORTH BABYLON         12.6   700 AM  2/14  PUBLIC
   DEER PARK             12.5   545 AM  2/14  PUBLIC
   SOUND BEACH           11.8  1000 AM  2/14  NWS EMPLOYEE
   YAPHANK               10.7   520 AM  2/14  PUBLIC
   ISLIP AIRPORT          8.7   700 AM  2/14  FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER
   LAKE RONKONKOMA        8.5   800 AM  2/14  TRAINED SPOTTER
   UPTON                  8.1   700 AM  2/14  NWS OFFICE
   OAKDALE                6.5   700 AM  2/14  PUBLIC
   BRIDGEHAMPTON          5.5   800 AM  2/14  CO-OP OBSERVER


...QUEENS COUNTY...
   BAYSIDE               11.8   700 AM  2/14  TRAINED SPOTTER
   ASTORIA               11.5   800 AM  2/14  PUBLIC
   NYC/LA GUARDIA        10.9   700 AM  2/14  FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER
   GLENDALE              10.9   515 AM  2/14  PUBLIC
   MIDDLE VILLAGE        10.3   600 AM  2/14  PUBLIC
   FOREST HILLS           9.2   545 AM  2/14  TRAINED SPOTTER
   NYC/JFK AIRPORT        6.9   700 AM  2/14  FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER
 

 

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16 minutes ago, nzucker said:

Last year's March storm was not "a disaster for the coast." Manhattan had 8-10", and we had 13" at my parents' place in Southern Westchester. Sure, it wasn't the 2 foot amounts some predicted, but a general 8-12" is nothing to sneeze at, especially in mid March.

8-10" after calls for 2'+ is a disaster. 

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7 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

On LI, the north shore of Suffolk had over a foot and the south shore of Nassau had less than half that much and rain.  It was a tough one for Long Beach.  There are no spotter reports from the south shore of Nassau from that day.  My guess is they were too disgusted to report.

L

 

In this case it was areas south of Sunrise Highway that got screwed.  Dsnowx (Doug) and I both had around a foot.  Again, do not discuss this storm with JM...

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2 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

8-10" after calls for 2'+ is a disaster. 

not having mid level temps widely available screwed over a lot of people. there was a sleet profile on the euro but it wasn't widely mentioned. ryan maue did post a cross section showing the warm layer but i didn't know about it until after the storm

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47 minutes ago, Snowshack said:

Its been said by a few posters that this is one of those years when it wants to snow.  So far I don't agree with that assessment, but one way to earn that label would be to rack up some inches during the unfavorable periods.    

Probably right on the line of a decent little event here on the north shore of suffolk..

...yeah,i think you guys got a better shot at some accumulations than me..thinking i rain 

most of the time..but i'm also rooting for PB to be right..

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6 minutes ago, tim said:

...yeah,i think you guys got a better shot at some accumulations than me..thinking i rain 

most of the time..but i'm also rooting for PB to be right..

If you look at the soundings for the GFS and NAM the 925 temps never get about -1 until you reach eastern half of Suffolk county. Then again, the RGEM is another story...

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March of last year’s storm was 3.5” for me with a foot predicted I believe. North and west of JFK is when there was real accumulation from all the sleet. 2/13/14 was altogether 6” or so but only about 4” on the front end after we went to rain and the mix line hung out a few miles north of me for hours. 

My point wasn’t to call 2/13/14 an analog to this or last March, but to not underestimate the SE ridge or 925mb warning. 

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15 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

not having mid level temps widely available screwed over a lot of people. there was a sleet profile on the euro but it wasn't widely mentioned. ryan maue did post a cross section showing the warm layer but i didn't know about it until after the storm

I remember the sleet profile vividly. It showed up in modeling so late, it was difficult for me to accept until it overwhelmed the city in real time. Oh well, you have your Boxing Days and you have your March 17's. 

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1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Where are you getting this from?  Neither GFS nor NAM gets 925 temps above about -3C in that area.  For that matter, 925s stay sub zero here too if those models are correct.

Ed , hes not.

He doesn't look at soundings,  he looks at snow maps.

I put out a moderate snow event call 7 days ago in here and never moved.

I like 2  in Colts Neck , 3 KNYC, 4 EWR 5 SWCT  6 KPOU .

850s are - 3 925s are 0 and 34/32 ( high res NAM is colder)  with .3 here , when I forecast I do it a week in advance and if 3 to 6 falls from S to N then my call of a moderate event will verify.

We will see.

If Red trash thinks Colts Neck gets 0 then he's going to have to wear that call when I post pictures.

 

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PB Colts Neck and Snow88 have a passion for weather and their logic is spot on.

They, amongst others offer a great deal to this forum and I look forward to their posts.

I enjoy their input just as much as the red taggers.

I remember ne.weather on usenet back in the 1990s and how personal and nasty that became.

May that never happen here.

 

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23 minutes ago, sferic said:

PB Colts Neck and Snow88 have a passion for weather and their logic is spot on.

They, amongst others offer a great deal to this forum and I look forward to their posts.

I enjoy their input just as much as the red taggers.

I remember ne.weather on usenet back in the 1990s and how personal and nasty that became.

May that never happen here.

 

Too late lol

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1 hour ago, nzucker said:

Last year's March storm was not "a disaster for the coast." Manhattan had 8-10", and we had 13" at my parents' place in Southern Westchester. Sure, it wasn't the 2 foot amounts some predicted, but a general 8-12" is nothing to sneeze at, especially in mid March.

It was about 6 inches here in Woodbridge, mostly sleet....

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1 hour ago, kingbaus said:

I'm expecting all rain for Monmouth county hoping I'm wrong.

We will be on the low end the max precip output as this time its is N W of here.

.2 to . 3 goes off here but .5 to .7 will be found from the Lehigh Valley/ Hudson Valley/ NNJ / across New England.

It's not that it's a rainer it's that the front is slow coming through and they snow out.

So you prob get 1 to 2 but again that's precip amount driven.

 

 

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15 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

We will be on the low end the max precip output as this time its is N W of here.

.2 to . 3 goes off here but .5 to .7 will be found from the Lehigh Valley/ Hudson Valley/ NNJ / across New England.

It's not that it's a rainer it's that the front is slow coming through and they snow out.

So you prob get 1 to 2 but again that's precip amount driven.

 

 

So 4” CNJ north has now become 1-2”, notes.

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