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1/16-17 Anafrontal/Coastal Low Snows Disco/Obs


Zelocita Weather

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3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

World’s apart from the new NAM. So nice to have model consistently among the mesos this close in. Par for the course this winter. Obviously one of the 2 is going to be dead wrong tomorrow night

This solution is more in line with trends and other guidance, but who knows until we get there. 

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2 minutes ago, CTNoreaster said:

No mention at all for mixing from NWS for point and clicks, even all the way down into Greenwich. This looks to be a North of the Parkway special for sure. You might be double what I get.

I have a feeling its all or nothing. Either all in coastal CT get 4 to 8 or just 1 inch of slop. 

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2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

I looked at the weather.us outputs, and 925 temps look toasty for most of the good precip from the city on east this run. If it’s near zero that’s fine, but the Euro has it at 2-4C. That’s enough to melt the snow before it makes it to the ground. The 925 low goes right over my head and then into SE CT, and for much of the time those winds come from the south or east. That tells me all I need to know. The 2/13/14 storm will be the last time I ever underestimate warmth in that layer. 

This is no 2/13/14, but the north shore did very well in that storm and looking at 12z model soundings much of the north shore might do better this time as well.  Any heavier precip could be snow with an isothermal boundary layer here.  925 doesn't really make it past the north shore (except out east).  None of the models are especially far off from that being a possibility, except maybe the Euro...but I can't see Euro detail.

 

 

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16 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

The nam's been all over the place with this storm

One of the Mets in the MA forum recently summed it up well when he said.  If the NAM is drum beating from 72 hours on with no real changes it’s onto the event.  If you see any waffling you can generally ignore it until inside 30

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16 minutes ago, snywx said:

18z RGEM.. Gets some snow down to the coast but the heavier stuff stays inland.

 

Screen Shot 2018-01-15 at 4.27.46 PM.png

Quite Euro-like actually, maybe a slight bit colder. Central Park might be a good dividing line between a decent snow event and the sloppy inch the immediate coast gets. I assume the RGEM torches 925mb as well based on this map. There seemed to be a good amount of precip, so it’s not a dry slot. 

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4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

GFS just came on colder for SW coastal CT. Rain stays on LI. About 3 to 4 inches. 

I was surprised that its only in the discussion, albeit I know that confidence is extremely low. I do agree with sentiments about LI sound being a mix line. Definitely has occurred in the past.

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1 minute ago, CTNoreaster said:

I was surprised that its only in the discussion, albeit I know that confidence is extremely low. I do agree with sentiments about LI sound being a mix line. Definitely has occurred in the past.

Agreed. Jan 17 and 18 of 2004 is the ultimate example of this. NEMO was another good example.

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15 minutes ago, Ace said:

48 hr 18Z RGEM is interesting to say the least

500hv.conus.png

Even though that closed low is a great look, notice how the trough is still slightly positively tilted. That's a problem. If you can get that ULL to completely roll over and pull the trough axis negative or even neutral, then you're in business. 

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