NJwx85 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 18z RGEM looks like a huge hit for a lot of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 I’m fairly confident in saying this is the final measurable snowfall for January so enjoy it whatever you get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Second wave looks interesting on that as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 18z RGEM looks like a huge hit for a lot of the area. I am right on that mix line in SW coastal CT. Sweating it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 53 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The NAM has always been a terrible model and just because it's a had a recent hot streak doesn't matter overall. Cliff Clavin has spoken. Seriously, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Total snow not out, but 6 hour snowfall panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: World’s apart from the new NAM. So nice to have model consistently among the mesos this close in. Par for the course this winter. Obviously one of the 2 is going to be dead wrong tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: World’s apart from the new NAM. So nice to have model consistently among the mesos this close in. Par for the course this winter. Obviously one of the 2 is going to be dead wrong tomorrow night The nam's been all over the place with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 18z RGEM.. Gets some snow down to the coast but the heavier stuff stays inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: World’s apart from the new NAM. So nice to have model consistently among the mesos this close in. Par for the course this winter. Obviously one of the 2 is going to be dead wrong tomorrow night This solution is more in line with trends and other guidance, but who knows until we get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTNoreaster Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 12 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I am right on that mix line in SW coastal CT. Sweating it out. No mention at all for mixing from NWS for point and clicks, even all the way down into Greenwich. This looks to be a North of the Parkway special for sure. You might be double what I get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, CTNoreaster said: No mention at all for mixing from NWS for point and clicks, even all the way down into Greenwich. This looks to be a North of the Parkway special for sure. You might be double what I get. Yeah they do mention it in the discussion though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, CTNoreaster said: No mention at all for mixing from NWS for point and clicks, even all the way down into Greenwich. This looks to be a North of the Parkway special for sure. You might be double what I get. I have a feeling its all or nothing. Either all in coastal CT get 4 to 8 or just 1 inch of slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 15 minutes ago, snywx said: 18z RGEM.. Gets some snow down to the coast but the heavier stuff stays inland. Unless the 925 low tracks overhead that’s going to be too warm for the coast. In prior runs the 925 low wasn’t really overhead on the RGEM if I remember right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, doncat said: Yeah they do mention it in the discussion though. GFS just came on colder for SW coastal CT. Rain stays on LI. About 3 to 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 hours ago, jm1220 said: I looked at the weather.us outputs, and 925 temps look toasty for most of the good precip from the city on east this run. If it’s near zero that’s fine, but the Euro has it at 2-4C. That’s enough to melt the snow before it makes it to the ground. The 925 low goes right over my head and then into SE CT, and for much of the time those winds come from the south or east. That tells me all I need to know. The 2/13/14 storm will be the last time I ever underestimate warmth in that layer. This is no 2/13/14, but the north shore did very well in that storm and looking at 12z model soundings much of the north shore might do better this time as well. Any heavier precip could be snow with an isothermal boundary layer here. 925 doesn't really make it past the north shore (except out east). None of the models are especially far off from that being a possibility, except maybe the Euro...but I can't see Euro detail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 16 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: The nam's been all over the place with this storm One of the Mets in the MA forum recently summed it up well when he said. If the NAM is drum beating from 72 hours on with no real changes it’s onto the event. If you see any waffling you can generally ignore it until inside 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 16 minutes ago, snywx said: 18z RGEM.. Gets some snow down to the coast but the heavier stuff stays inland. Quite Euro-like actually, maybe a slight bit colder. Central Park might be a good dividing line between a decent snow event and the sloppy inch the immediate coast gets. I assume the RGEM torches 925mb as well based on this map. There seemed to be a good amount of precip, so it’s not a dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Any input on wave2 on that last frame on the rgem. Kind of looks interesting but out of range . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 48 hr 18Z RGEM is interesting to say the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTNoreaster Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: GFS just came on colder for SW coastal CT. Rain stays on LI. About 3 to 4 inches. I was surprised that its only in the discussion, albeit I know that confidence is extremely low. I do agree with sentiments about LI sound being a mix line. Definitely has occurred in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, CTNoreaster said: I was surprised that its only in the discussion, albeit I know that confidence is extremely low. I do agree with sentiments about LI sound being a mix line. Definitely has occurred in the past. Agreed. Jan 17 and 18 of 2004 is the ultimate example of this. NEMO was another good example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 36 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I’m fairly confident in saying this is the final measurable snowfall for January so enjoy it whatever you get For the coast I would agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 15 minutes ago, Ace said: 48 hr 18Z RGEM is interesting to say the least Even though that closed low is a great look, notice how the trough is still slightly positively tilted. That's a problem. If you can get that ULL to completely roll over and pull the trough axis negative or even neutral, then you're in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 45 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I’m fairly confident in saying this is the final measurable snowfall for January so enjoy it whatever you get LOL..is that the company line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 rgem has had some major busts this season that would support a colder boundary layer than explicitly shown... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 15 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: LOL..is that the company line? It's really too early to say that even for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, WEATHERBUFF said: It's really too early to say that even for the coast. I think we will see another measurable snowfall before the month is out after Tuesday/Wednesday but I don't think that will happen until near the very end of the month say the last 5 days or so. I also have high hopes for February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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