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1/16-17 Anafrontal/Coastal Low Snows Disco/Obs


Zelocita Weather

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5 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

gefs juicy too, NWCT or Western MA is my jackpot for this, 8-10 isnt crazy to think up there

gef 11111.png

Agree with this, model consensus for the most part keying in on Ma/Ct/Lower Hudson River area for best snows. This makes sense given the tracks of the mid level features. The remaining question is does the initial “overrunning” produce higher amounts for Nj or do they scrape from the developing weak coastal only?

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14 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

looking at early nam, looks like better heights along the EC and a slightly better trough orientation

namconus_uv250_us_fh23_trend.gif

The coast doesn't really want a more amped up solution. Right now the positive tilt allows the surface low to track ENE so that the mid-level stay cold. If this tracked more up and in it could bring more warm air with it.

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3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Anyway, the 18z NAM says what snow? That's why people here should never compliment the NAM as much as they do.

5a5d0dc11f130.png

Don't say that until it doesn't verify.

 

Anyway, the 18z NAM looks to split the energy more, with the northern and southern aspect becoming more disjointed. The result is there is a "screw zone" where forcing abates before things can get going again

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1 minute ago, weatherbear5 said:

Don't say that until it doesn't verify.

 

Anyway, the 18z NAM looks to split the energy more, with the northern and southern aspect becoming more disjointed. The result is there is a "screw zone" where forcing abates before things can get going again

The NAM has always been a terrible model and just because it's a had a recent hot streak doesn't matter overall.

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32 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said:

NWS issued WWA for N NJ for 2-4" west of the GSP, 4-6" in NW NJ. 

well since the GSP and NJ TPK both intersect in my town, this distinction usually doesn't mean much for me. I have a feeling from about western Union co NW will do best. I'm thinking best case is 1-3 in my zone. Or less, that's how it usually goes in clippers here. It does seem to want to snow this year though. I'll keep watching.

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