weatherfreeeeak Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Anyone see the 18z ICON lol - who trusts this model at all? Looks similar to RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Anyone use the GEMLAM anymore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Pls excuse if posted. Official NWS Forecast. Enough for a Winter Weather Advisory if pattern verifies. A Winter Weather Advisory is issued by the National Weather Service of the United States when a low pressure system produces a combination of winter weather(snow, freezing rain, or sleet) that presents a hazard, but does not meet warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 On 1/15/2018 at 11:07 PM, WeatherFox said: Pls excuse if posted. Official NWS Forecast. Enough for a Winter Weather Advisory if pattern verifies. A Winter Weather Advisory is issued by the National Weather Service of the United States when a low pressure system produces a combination of winter weather(snow, freezing rain, or sleet) that presents a hazard, but does not meet warning criteria. Expand Be Prepared for either WWA being expanded - WSW issued or WWA being cancelled - this system has a high bust potential IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 On 1/15/2018 at 9:47 PM, SnowGoose69 said: One of the Mets in the MA forum recently summed it up well when he said. If the NAM is drum beating from 72 hours on with no real changes it’s onto the event. If you see any waffling you can generally ignore it until inside 30 Expand I mean, or you could think about how the model works - in particular, how it differs from other models - and weigh it more heavily in events that play to its 'strengths'.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 On 1/15/2018 at 9:23 PM, SnowGoose69 said: I’m fairly confident in saying this is the final measurable snowfall for January so enjoy it whatever you get Expand I disagree Watch the end of January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 On 1/15/2018 at 11:34 PM, Snow88 said: I disagree Watch the end of January Expand Its been said by a few posters that this is one of those years when it wants to snow. So far I don't agree with that assessment, but one way to earn that label would be to rack up some inches during the unfavorable periods. Probably right on the line of a decent little event here on the north shore of suffolk.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 On 1/15/2018 at 11:49 PM, Snowshack said: Its been said by a few posters that this is one of those years when it wants to snow. So far I don't agree with that assessment, but one way to earn that label would be to rack up some inches during the unfavorable periods. Probably right on the line of a decent little event here on the north shore of suffolk.. Expand Even great winters have torchy and snowless periods. 95-96 had the 1/12/96 hugger that was just about all rain from the city on east and began the big melt of all the Blizzard snow. Even when "it wants to snow", the pattern does what it does and torches things when it wants. And the SE ridge can be a blessing as it's been a couple times already this year, or a curse like last March's storm that was a disaster for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/15/2018 at 11:49 PM, Snowshack said: Probably right on the line of a decent little event here on the north shore of suffolk.. Expand Agreed. May be a nail-biter here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/15/2018 at 9:46 PM, NorthShoreWx said: This is no 2/13/14, but the north shore did very well in that storm and looking at 12z model soundings much of the north shore might do better this time as well. Any heavier precip could be snow with an isothermal boundary layer here. 925 doesn't really make it past the north shore (except out east). None of the models are especially far off from that being a possibility, except maybe the Euro...but I can't see Euro detail. Expand I had a foot in Bay Ridge in the 2/13/14 storm, right on the ocean. Not sure what people are talking about, that was a great storm for coastal areas of NYC. Definitely happy to be in the Northeast Bronx for this one. Expecting 3-4" here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/15/2018 at 11:57 PM, jm1220 said: Even great winters have torchy and snowless periods. 95-96 had the 1/12/96 hugger that was just about all rain from the city on east and began the big melt of all the Blizzard snow. Even when "it wants to snow", the pattern does what it does and torches things when it wants. And the SE ridge can be a blessing as it's been a couple times already this year, or a curse like last March's storm that was a disaster for the coast. Expand Agreed, I was tying back to Goose's point about this potentially being the last snow event in January. Torches and snow droughts are part of living in our area, but if this season is to earn the label of one that 'wants to snow', then it needs to find a way to sneak in an event or two during a long unfavorable period like the one that may be unfolding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/15/2018 at 11:57 PM, jm1220 said: Even great winters have torchy and snowless periods. 95-96 had the 1/12/96 hugger that was just about all rain from the city on east and began the big melt of all the Blizzard snow. Even when "it wants to snow", the pattern does what it does and torches things when it wants. And the SE ridge can be a blessing as it's been a couple times already this year, or a curse like last March's storm that was a disaster for the coast. Expand Last year's March storm was not "a disaster for the coast." Manhattan had 8-10", and we had 13" at my parents' place in Southern Westchester. Sure, it wasn't the 2 foot amounts some predicted, but a general 8-12" is nothing to sneeze at, especially in mid March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 12:09 AM, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said: PB in trouble on this one. Never underestimate that warm push at 925 and a stale BL at the shore. Colts Neck isn’t getting snow out of this one. Expand Where are you getting this from? Neither GFS nor NAM gets 925 temps above about -3C in that area. For that matter, 925s stay sub zero here too if those models are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 12:13 AM, nzucker said: I had a foot in Bay Ridge in the 2/13/14 storm, right on the ocean. Not sure what people are talking about, that was a great storm for coastal areas of NYC. Definitely happy to be in the Northeast Bronx for this one. Expecting 3-4" here... Expand On LI, the north shore of Suffolk had over a foot and the south shore of Nassau had less than half that much and rain. It was a tough one for Long Beach. There are no spotter reports from the south shore of Nassau from that day. My guess is they were too disgusted to report. ...SUFFOLK COUNTY... COMMACK 15.1 700 AM 2/14 PUBLIC BAY SHORE 14.5 730 AM 2/14 NWS EMPLOYEE SMITHTOWN 13.5 900 AM 2/14 TRAINED SPOTTER EAST SETAUKET 12.8 630 AM 2/14 PUBLIC PORT JEFFERSON 12.8 745 AM 2/14 PUBLIC NORTH BABYLON 12.6 700 AM 2/14 PUBLIC DEER PARK 12.5 545 AM 2/14 PUBLIC SOUND BEACH 11.8 1000 AM 2/14 NWS EMPLOYEE YAPHANK 10.7 520 AM 2/14 PUBLIC ISLIP AIRPORT 8.7 700 AM 2/14 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER LAKE RONKONKOMA 8.5 800 AM 2/14 TRAINED SPOTTER UPTON 8.1 700 AM 2/14 NWS OFFICE OAKDALE 6.5 700 AM 2/14 PUBLIC BRIDGEHAMPTON 5.5 800 AM 2/14 CO-OP OBSERVER ...QUEENS COUNTY... BAYSIDE 11.8 700 AM 2/14 TRAINED SPOTTER ASTORIA 11.5 800 AM 2/14 PUBLIC NYC/LA GUARDIA 10.9 700 AM 2/14 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER GLENDALE 10.9 515 AM 2/14 PUBLIC MIDDLE VILLAGE 10.3 600 AM 2/14 PUBLIC FOREST HILLS 9.2 545 AM 2/14 TRAINED SPOTTER NYC/JFK AIRPORT 6.9 700 AM 2/14 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Hi res rgem has a nice swath of 5-7” snowfall interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 12:15 AM, nzucker said: Last year's March storm was not "a disaster for the coast." Manhattan had 8-10", and we had 13" at my parents' place in Southern Westchester. Sure, it wasn't the 2 foot amounts some predicted, but a general 8-12" is nothing to sneeze at, especially in mid March. Expand 8-10" after calls for 2'+ is a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 12:25 AM, NorthShoreWx said: On LI, the north shore of Suffolk had over a foot and the south shore of Nassau had less than half that much and rain. It was a tough one for Long Beach. There are no spotter reports from the south shore of Nassau from that day. My guess is they were too disgusted to report. L Expand In this case it was areas south of Sunrise Highway that got screwed. Dsnowx (Doug) and I both had around a foot. Again, do not discuss this storm with JM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 12:32 AM, Wetbulbs88 said: 8-10" after calls for 2'+ is a disaster. Expand not having mid level temps widely available screwed over a lot of people. there was a sleet profile on the euro but it wasn't widely mentioned. ryan maue did post a cross section showing the warm layer but i didn't know about it until after the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/15/2018 at 11:49 PM, Snowshack said: Its been said by a few posters that this is one of those years when it wants to snow. So far I don't agree with that assessment, but one way to earn that label would be to rack up some inches during the unfavorable periods. Probably right on the line of a decent little event here on the north shore of suffolk.. Expand ...yeah,i think you guys got a better shot at some accumulations than me..thinking i rain most of the time..but i'm also rooting for PB to be right.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 12:40 AM, tim said: ...yeah,i think you guys got a better shot at some accumulations than me..thinking i rain most of the time..but i'm also rooting for PB to be right.. Expand If you look at the soundings for the GFS and NAM the 925 temps never get about -1 until you reach eastern half of Suffolk county. Then again, the RGEM is another story... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 March of last year’s storm was 3.5” for me with a foot predicted I believe. North and west of JFK is when there was real accumulation from all the sleet. 2/13/14 was altogether 6” or so but only about 4” on the front end after we went to rain and the mix line hung out a few miles north of me for hours. My point wasn’t to call 2/13/14 an analog to this or last March, but to not underestimate the SE ridge or 925mb warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 12:36 AM, forkyfork said: not having mid level temps widely available screwed over a lot of people. there was a sleet profile on the euro but it wasn't widely mentioned. ryan maue did post a cross section showing the warm layer but i didn't know about it until after the storm Expand I remember the sleet profile vividly. It showed up in modeling so late, it was difficult for me to accept until it overwhelmed the city in real time. Oh well, you have your Boxing Days and you have your March 17's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 I'm expecting all rain for Monmouth county hoping I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 12:19 AM, NorthShoreWx said: Where are you getting this from? Neither GFS nor NAM gets 925 temps above about -3C in that area. For that matter, 925s stay sub zero here too if those models are correct. Expand Ed , hes not. He doesn't look at soundings, he looks at snow maps. I put out a moderate snow event call 7 days ago in here and never moved. I like 2 in Colts Neck , 3 KNYC, 4 EWR 5 SWCT 6 KPOU . 850s are - 3 925s are 0 and 34/32 ( high res NAM is colder) with .3 here , when I forecast I do it a week in advance and if 3 to 6 falls from S to N then my call of a moderate event will verify. We will see. If Red trash thinks Colts Neck gets 0 then he's going to have to wear that call when I post pictures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 PB Colts Neck and Snow88 have a passion for weather and their logic is spot on. They, amongst others offer a great deal to this forum and I look forward to their posts. I enjoy their input just as much as the red taggers. I remember ne.weather on usenet back in the 1990s and how personal and nasty that became. May that never happen here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 1:37 AM, sferic said: PB Colts Neck and Snow88 have a passion for weather and their logic is spot on. They, amongst others offer a great deal to this forum and I look forward to their posts. I enjoy their input just as much as the red taggers. I remember ne.weather on usenet back in the 1990s and how personal and nasty that became. May that never happen here. Expand Too late lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 12:15 AM, nzucker said: Last year's March storm was not "a disaster for the coast." Manhattan had 8-10", and we had 13" at my parents' place in Southern Westchester. Sure, it wasn't the 2 foot amounts some predicted, but a general 8-12" is nothing to sneeze at, especially in mid March. Expand It was about 6 inches here in Woodbridge, mostly sleet.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 1:00 AM, kingbaus said: I'm expecting all rain for Monmouth county hoping I'm wrong. Expand We will be on the low end the max precip output as this time its is N W of here. .2 to . 3 goes off here but .5 to .7 will be found from the Lehigh Valley/ Hudson Valley/ NNJ / across New England. It's not that it's a rainer it's that the front is slow coming through and they snow out. So you prob get 1 to 2 but again that's precip amount driven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 0z nam doesn't bring snow in until after midnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 2:11 AM, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: We will be on the low end the max precip output as this time its is N W of here. .2 to . 3 goes off here but .5 to .7 will be found from the Lehigh Valley/ Hudson Valley/ NNJ / across New England. It's not that it's a rainer it's that the front is slow coming through and they snow out. So you prob get 1 to 2 but again that's precip amount driven. Expand So 4” CNJ north has now become 1-2”, notes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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