sferic Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 On 1/14/2018 at 11:53 PM, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: Don , I believe the western members of the EPS , I think the models are missing the WAR. I am buying the last wave for a moderate event for coastal locations across LI and on into SNE. Expand What do you see as the ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 On 1/14/2018 at 11:53 PM, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: Don , I believe the western members of the EPS , I think the models are missing the WAR. I am buying the last wave for a moderate event Expand That’s a good point. It has the support of some of the EPS members as you noted. It will be interesting to see how things work out. I will be rooting for a snowy outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 On 1/14/2018 at 11:58 PM, sferic said: What do you see as the ratios? Expand 10 to 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 On 1/15/2018 at 12:01 AM, donsutherland1 said: That’s a good point. It has the support of some of the EPS members as you noted. It will be interesting to see how things work out. I will be rooting for a snowy outcome. Expand I think there could be as much as. 3 back into NYC and coastal NJ and. 5 on the east end. I see the way out, but the models have missed that push a few times and the western cluster of the EPS ended up right earlier as well. I loved the Blizzard from 7 days out, I liked this from 5. A 2 to 4 coast , 3 to 6 across LI type is my thinking sitting here today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 On 1/15/2018 at 12:05 AM, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: I think there could be as much as. 3 back into NYC and coastal NJ and. 5 on the east end. I see the way out, but the models have missed that push a few times and the western cluster of the EPS ended up right earlier as well. I loved the Blizzard from 7 days out, I liked this from 5. A 2 to 4 coast , 3 to 6 across LI type is my thinking sitting here today Expand Your hunch may very well happen. You can clearly see with the H5 maps that the WAR is flexing a bit more with each ensuing suite package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 On 1/15/2018 at 12:05 AM, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: I think there could be as much as. 3 back into NYC and coastal NJ and. 5 on the east end. I see the way out, but the models have missed that push a few times and the western cluster of the EPS ended up right earlier as well. I loved the Blizzard from 7 days out, I liked this from 5. A 2 to 4 coast , 3 to 6 across LI type is my thinking sitting here today Expand This one is a battle between the stronger WAR and more westward EPS members and the kicker coning into the West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 On 1/15/2018 at 12:26 AM, bluewave said: This one is a battle between the stronger WAR and more westward EPS members and the kicker coning into the West. Expand Yeh, these are never easy. However these have trended west 48 hours out this year. So I think we have another full day before we know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 NWS is favoring Eastern LI, North of NYC, and then New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 On 1/15/2018 at 2:16 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: NWS is favoring Eastern LI, North of NYC, and then New England Expand NAM is looking good for those N of NYC into SNE. 3-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 On 1/15/2018 at 2:38 AM, snywx said: NAM is looking good for those N of NYC into SNE. 3-6" Expand Was just looking, itnfinally came on board with that euro solution, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Not too excited about this in my backyard. South winds out ahead of this look to torch it to the upper 30s, and precip will be light. Most of the activity looks to be north of me. This looks like a 2-4” or so event for northern suburbs and into SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 On 1/15/2018 at 2:46 AM, jm1220 said: Not too excited about this in my backyard. South winds out ahead of this look to torch it to the upper 30s, and precip will be light. Most of the activity looks to be north of me. This looks like a 2-4” or so event for northern suburbs and into SNE. Expand Models are still adjusting west with a better precip shield. I doubt the coast sees all rain. Watch for stronger and colder runs ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 On 1/15/2018 at 2:38 AM, snywx said: NAM is looking good for those N of NYC into SNE. 3-6" Expand It'll be fully two weeks since the last plowable snowfall, so I'd have no complaints at all about a 2-4 or 3-6" deal... though the latter seems like a long-shot. Knowing how this month has played out so far, it makes perfect sense why we haven't seen a lot of snow. Still, if you just woke up from a coma and saw that we're running 4 to 5 degrees below normal for the month with above-average precip, you'd expect a different result I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 The NAM QPF looks a bit crazy given the synoptics of the thing. Even though it's still snowing at the end of the run, the hi-res NAM doesn't have anything close to the big swaths of .5"+ depicted by the 12km by hour 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Models are tending towards more precip thanks to the strong Atlantic ridge that's getting picked up by the models. Looks like a few inches Tuesday CMC is way northwest with the coastal for Thursday and gets moderate precip up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Cmc is a moderate hit with the second wave which becomes a coastal storn. Looks like 3-6 even for NYC...back to trading ttyl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Ggem looks to be our outlier big time, with wave 2, it closes off at H5, in a decent position but trough never goes negative, moves due east once it gets close enough to start making an impact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 On 1/15/2018 at 4:24 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Ggem looks to be our outlier big time, with wave 2, it closes off at H5, in a decent position but trough never goes negative, moves due east once it gets close enough to start making an impact Expand Eps showed the same thing so it's not an outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 No changes in the forecast of a moderate snow event right up I 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 On 1/15/2018 at 4:26 AM, Snow88 said: Eps showed the same thing so it's not an outlier Expand This. I'm a bit skeptical of going NAM/GFS when I have GEM/EPS. EPS had a huge W lean too. It all comes down to closing off H5 early enough. It's only about system #2 at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 So there is potential for two separate events, first Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday and then another Thursday? Which is the more impactful one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 That old euro run that crushed, and tonight’s Ggem are identical with a small difference, Euro was west with the ULL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 On 1/15/2018 at 4:34 AM, Rtd208 said: Expand DT jumping the gun though. Some, but NOT many of models are closing H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 UKMet is a non event. H5 never closes off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 The UKMET looks really good at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 On 1/15/2018 at 4:49 AM, Enigma said: UKMet is a non event. H5 never closes off. Expand LOL. Well I guess after 72 it did not look too good. It looked like it was headed big at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 RGEM is a warning event for Long Island, maybe even nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 On 1/15/2018 at 5:12 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: RGEM is a warning event for Long Island, maybe even nyc Expand For Tues or Thursday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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