MD Snow Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Still to early to talk details etc but this op run of the gfs actually trended towards us for once. We haven’t had a positive trend on the gfs with this system in a while it seems. 18z was bone dry for us so this is encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Gfs looking good with the front/overruning thin run. Trough digging back deeper and slower. Like that for sure. Looks like still digging at 84? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 That enhanced area interesting. Looked very much like the group of eps memebers that gave us 2-4. Psu prob gets 4" this run with good ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psurulz Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Any snow for the I81 crew? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Any snow for the I81 crew?Same 1-3” as everyone else. It’s a good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 You can see why the area to the W and sw of dc get enhanced precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Blue Ridge seems to get near 5 inches lol down towards CHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Same 1-3” as everyone else. It’s a good run. Cold powdery snowfall if verified too. Seems like a theme so far this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Blue Ridge seems to get near 5 inches lol down towards CHO Kuchera maps aren't loaded on wxbell but I'll bet areas near Luray on the ridges top 6". This was a nice step. Hopefully it holds and enhanced precip area expands as we move forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Gfs just gave Ji his biggest event of the season. Now that he conceded with the coastal he'll be happy with the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 It was a great run. Love when we get the SW to NE alignment setting up. Can always look for early signals how the event is going to unfold by seeing how areas around CHO do before we start precipitating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Yea, this works. Potential for a little more upside. Not much given the setup but 3-6" is in the realm. Hopefully this isn't a blip but a trend. Nam was on its way to something similar. Navgem is even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Happy for the folks to the west. Models favoring that area now and have been lacking in snow, so good for them!! I live east, and still want snow though!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, this works. Potential for a little more upside. Not much given the setup but 3-6" is in the realm. Hopefully this isn't a blip but a trend. Nam was on its way to something similar. Navgem is even better. Yeah, navgem has been steady all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Can somebody tell me what we want to see from the Euro. I know more digging is good but just trying to catch up on the track we want at this point. More west or east—or I guess that depends if we are still hoping for a coastal??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 GEFS is certainly better FWIW. Mean is 1"-1.5" of snow, and there are 5/20 members that around 2" or more into the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 6 minutes ago, Cobalt said: GEFS is certainly better FWIW. Mean is 1"-1.5" of snow, and there are 5/20 members that around 2" or more into the area Can u post it please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Can u post it please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 I like the precip maps. Better contours. Night and day compared to 18z. A couple warning level solutions in the mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 @ cobalt. Thank you. Looks better than what I imagined. Handful of decent hits in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 I like the precip maps. Better contours. Night and day compared to 18z. A couple warning level solutions in the mix. How did e6 h appen lolSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 This is 18z for comparison. Big jump in coverage and amount of qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I like the precip maps. Better contours. Night and day compared to 18z. A couple warning level solutions in the mix. Seems to be consensus for accumulating snow. Looks like several members key in on the enhanced blob of moisture in central va and ride it up and over us. Seems to be the difference between getting a dusting to an inch or a 2 to 4 / 3 to 5 inch event. Like you said earlier this doesn't have huge upside but could turn in to a decent event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Coastal enhanced E6 is on fire tonight. Another solid hit a week later. That would be one way to make up a lot of ground in a hurry. Pol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Pretty weenie gefs run. Actually several in a row now starting last night. Good trend with the front then several threats in the long range like the op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Pretty weenie gefs run. Actually several in a row now starting last night. Good trend with the front then several threats in the long range like the op run. Looks like after the storm cuts west next weekend we finally start to see some confluence and tighter spacing. More and more looks at storms getting forced under us. Also some west tracks spaced close enough to take advantage of a cold high so some front end snow and/or ice. Eps just started hinting at it with the 12z run d12+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Looks like after the storm cuts west next weekend we finally start to see some confluence and tighter spacing. More and more looks at storms getting forced under us. Also some west tracks spaced close enough to take advantage of a cold high so some front end snow and/or ice. Eps just started hinting at it with the 12z run d12+. EPS has been following the gefs for a while now. Gefs first sniffed out the current 5-6 day cold period when the EPS was still advertising a torch this week. It seems to be happening again next week. Gefs was also first to sniff out the AO tanking and that was right it seems. I don't hug any one model but the gfs and gefs have been the best for our purposes for a while now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Uhm. What's this on euro. No surface maps. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=eus&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2018011400&fh=96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Too far east I think https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=eus&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2018011400&fh=96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Euro isn't as good as the gfs but it's close. Nice improvement from 12z. Like seeing this stuff as leads shorten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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