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January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2


WinterWxLuvr

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

I like the precip maps. Better contours. Night and day compared to 18z. A couple warning level solutions in the mix. 

N0GyGnN.jpg

Seems to be consensus for accumulating snow. Looks like several members key  in on the enhanced blob of moisture in central va and ride it up and over us. Seems to be the difference between getting  a dusting to an inch or a 2 to 4 / 3 to 5 inch event. Like you said earlier this doesn't have huge upside but could turn in to a decent event.

 

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13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Pretty weenie gefs run. Actually several in a row now starting last night. Good trend with the front then several threats in the long range like the op run. 

Looks like after the storm cuts west next weekend we finally start to see some confluence and tighter spacing. More and more looks at storms getting forced under us. Also some west tracks spaced close enough to take advantage of a cold high so some front end snow and/or ice. Eps just started hinting at it with the 12z run d12+. 

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12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Looks like after the storm cuts west next weekend we finally start to see some confluence and tighter spacing. More and more looks at storms getting forced under us. Also some west tracks spaced close enough to take advantage of a cold high so some front end snow and/or ice. Eps just started hinting at it with the 12z run d12+. 

EPS has been following the gefs for a while now. Gefs first sniffed out the current 5-6 day cold period when the EPS was still advertising a torch this week. It seems to be happening again next week.  Gefs was also first to sniff out the AO tanking and that was right it seems. I don't hug any one model but the gfs and gefs have been the best for our purposes for a while now. 

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