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January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2


WinterWxLuvr

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4 minutes ago, usedtobe said:

The NAM has a sharper 500h than the GFS at the same time.  Big differences. The NAM looks sort of like last night's Euro before ti completely folded.  Too bad we're probably being NAMed

 

Jan_16_compare.png

I didn't like seeing the gfs making a fairly big shift with heights in canada really early on. Tells me that we still don't know how the trough is going to dig and progress. Not saying it means good things or anything. Just that progression and amplitude is still being figured out. 

The area of enhanced precip in VA was on multiple eps members but it wasn't centered in central VA. It was more centered over the corridor. We can only hope....lol

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12 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

@Bob Chill We did test the Gfs with the southern stream and it did great. Never wavered to any reasonable degree with the 1/16 blizzard. Idk if that was pre-update, but the parallel Gfs did great too..

I was going to add "except 2016" in my post but it's just one storm and all models honed in on that one 8 days out. That particular storm was an aberration with long lead ops. Everything was perfectly in place for a long lead track. The -ao/nao couldn't have popped up more perfectly. It's pretty depressing that Jan 16 was the last warning level event. Going on 2 years and counting unless something pops up STAT

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46 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Based on the last page of one eyed focus really hard reading...I’ll just keep drinking and pretend it’s snowing all day every day. Did I just describe weenie heaven?  :beer:

Drinking is one solution! As I said three weeks ago, the pattern is not our friend. I have been watching this for 40 - 50 years. Moderate Drought over much of Va. does not bode well for MECS. Last 48 hrs., I received 1.00" rainfall. First one inch rainfall in my area since August 29.  Very cold is usually dry.  As we gradually climb out of this Nina pattern, things may improve. My feelings are that Feb. 15 - April 1 may present better opportunities possibly suppressed east of the mountains. Next winter with a progged .5 - 1.0 Nino, we may be rewarded for patience.

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Finally seeing signs of better height patterns in the east d12+. Eps backed off on AN heights and even hinting at  eastern troughing returning on the means. 18z Gefs followed. Pac is less bad. Both the gefs and eps showing some snow chances returning after next weekend as well. If we don't lose the -ao then maybe it does all start to come together for a late run for the money. 

Next weekend does look like a repeat of this weekend but beyond that maybe....just maybe....we turn a bit of a corner here. Last week of Jan and first 2 weeks of Feb are the meat of prime climo. We either go down in flames or a blaze of glory. 

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24 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Finally seeing signs of better height patterns in the east d12+. Eps backed off on AN heights and even hinting at  eastern troughing returning on the means. 18z Gefs followed. Pac is less bad. Both the gefs and eps showing some snow chances returning after next weekend as well. If we don't lose the -ao then maybe it does all start to come together for a late run for the money. 

Next weekend does look like a repeat of this weekend but beyond that maybe....just maybe....we turn a bit of a corner here. Last week of Jan and first 2 weeks of Feb are the meat of prime climo. We either go down in flames or a blaze of glory. 

That's the spirit! 

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21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Finally seeing signs of better height patterns in the east d12+. Eps backed off on AN heights and even hinting at  eastern troughing returning on the means. 18z Gefs followed. Pac is less bad. Both the gefs and eps showing some snow chances returning after next weekend as well. If we don't lose the -ao then maybe it does all start to come together for a late run for the money. 

Next weekend does look like a repeat of this weekend but beyond that maybe....just maybe....we turn a bit of a corner here. Last week of Jan and first 2 weeks of Feb are the meat of prime climo. We either go down in flames or a blaze of glory. 

If the very dry pattern subsides, we may turn a corner. Yesterday was an outlier.

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2 minutes ago, stormy said:

If the very dry pattern subsides, we may turn a corner. Yesterday was an outlier.

Yesterday was the first synoptic event post cold period. I don't think it's an outlier as much as a sign that the cold/dry pattern has indeed changed. The west coast is under the gun for a while. That will translate east in general. Maybe not our yards specifically but the east half of the country looks primed for several more decent precip events over the next two weeks. Mostly rain unfortunately from how it looks now.  

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yesterday was the first synoptic event post cold period. I don't think it's an outlier as much as a sign that the cold/dry pattern has indeed changed. The west coast is under the gun for a while. That will translate east in general. Maybe not our yards specifically but the east half of the country looks primed for several more decent precip events over the next two weeks. Mostly rain unfortunately from how it looks now.  

I will treasure your expertise until I see it in my rain gage. I need moisture anyway I can get it. Private wells in the Valley are beginning to fail.

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3 minutes ago, yoda said:

FWIW with the 00z NAM, it's snowing in DC hour 78 to 84... but only about an inch of accumulation... more to the SW of 2 inches by CHO

Very light up this way. Who knows if the heavier stuff moves this far NE. But, it doesn't matter since it's the Nam at 84.

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2 minutes ago, yoda said:

FWIW with the 00z NAM, it's snowing in DC hour 78 to 84... but only about an inch of accumulation... more to the SW of 2 inches by CHO

Nam looks a bit like a cluster of eps memebers with an enhanced "blob" embedded along the front. 

We aren't going to know if or where an area of enhanced precip will happen until probably mon-tues. Once the front is organized in real time the models will prob converge on a similar soltuion. Fingers crossed that it happens overhead. Gfs had it in central VA.

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