mitchnick Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 @Bob Chill We did test the Gfs with the southern stream and it did great. Never wavered to any reasonable degree with the 1/16 blizzard. Idk if that was pre-update, but the parallel Gfs did great too.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 At this point a coating to an inch is the bar. Hey it's snow, and it should be plenty cold enough. Maybe we get some late breaking positive changes, or the NAM out of range is on to something. Otherwise we take the car topper and look onward lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Are we allowed to hug the FV3 (the next para-GFS) yet? These are from last night's 00z runs. GFS on left, FV3 on right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, usedtobe said: The NAM has a sharper 500h than the GFS at the same time. Big differences. The NAM looks sort of like last night's Euro before ti completely folded. Too bad we're probably being NAMed I didn't like seeing the gfs making a fairly big shift with heights in canada really early on. Tells me that we still don't know how the trough is going to dig and progress. Not saying it means good things or anything. Just that progression and amplitude is still being figured out. The area of enhanced precip in VA was on multiple eps members but it wasn't centered in central VA. It was more centered over the corridor. We can only hope....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 12z gfs will make sure this thread starts off in classic MA fashion...unmitigated disasterYou nailed this forecast!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 12 minutes ago, mitchnick said: @Bob Chill We did test the Gfs with the southern stream and it did great. Never wavered to any reasonable degree with the 1/16 blizzard. Idk if that was pre-update, but the parallel Gfs did great too.. I was going to add "except 2016" in my post but it's just one storm and all models honed in on that one 8 days out. That particular storm was an aberration with long lead ops. Everything was perfectly in place for a long lead track. The -ao/nao couldn't have popped up more perfectly. It's pretty depressing that Jan 16 was the last warning level event. Going on 2 years and counting unless something pops up STAT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: You nailed this forecast! Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk I'm going down with the ship on this one...1-3" for the vast majority if not all of the sub. First and final call. If not 1-3 then more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 I'm going down with the ship on this one...1-3" for the vast majority if not all of the sub. First and final call. If not 1-3 then more. I give up. I'd actually be happy with thatSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Based on the last page of one eyed focus really hard reading...I’ll just keep drinking and pretend it’s snowing all day every day. Did I just describe weenie heaven? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 I miss the days when post count in a thread was proportional to eventual snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Paq Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 23 minutes ago, MDstorm said: I miss the days when post count in a thread was proportional to eventual snowfall. Agreed - I saw the post count and immediately thought the Euro went back to amazing. Not so much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 46 minutes ago, Scraff said: Based on the last page of one eyed focus really hard reading...I’ll just keep drinking and pretend it’s snowing all day every day. Did I just describe weenie heaven? Drinking is one solution! As I said three weeks ago, the pattern is not our friend. I have been watching this for 40 - 50 years. Moderate Drought over much of Va. does not bode well for MECS. Last 48 hrs., I received 1.00" rainfall. First one inch rainfall in my area since August 29. Very cold is usually dry. As we gradually climb out of this Nina pattern, things may improve. My feelings are that Feb. 15 - April 1 may present better opportunities possibly suppressed east of the mountains. Next winter with a progged .5 - 1.0 Nino, we may be rewarded for patience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 18z GGEM bumped up qpf a bit again. The overrunning event isn't as dry as it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Finally seeing signs of better height patterns in the east d12+. Eps backed off on AN heights and even hinting at eastern troughing returning on the means. 18z Gefs followed. Pac is less bad. Both the gefs and eps showing some snow chances returning after next weekend as well. If we don't lose the -ao then maybe it does all start to come together for a late run for the money. Next weekend does look like a repeat of this weekend but beyond that maybe....just maybe....we turn a bit of a corner here. Last week of Jan and first 2 weeks of Feb are the meat of prime climo. We either go down in flames or a blaze of glory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 24 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Finally seeing signs of better height patterns in the east d12+. Eps backed off on AN heights and even hinting at eastern troughing returning on the means. 18z Gefs followed. Pac is less bad. Both the gefs and eps showing some snow chances returning after next weekend as well. If we don't lose the -ao then maybe it does all start to come together for a late run for the money. Next weekend does look like a repeat of this weekend but beyond that maybe....just maybe....we turn a bit of a corner here. Last week of Jan and first 2 weeks of Feb are the meat of prime climo. We either go down in flames or a blaze of glory. That's the spirit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Finally seeing signs of better height patterns in the east d12+. Eps backed off on AN heights and even hinting at eastern troughing returning on the means. 18z Gefs followed. Pac is less bad. Both the gefs and eps showing some snow chances returning after next weekend as well. If we don't lose the -ao then maybe it does all start to come together for a late run for the money. Next weekend does look like a repeat of this weekend but beyond that maybe....just maybe....we turn a bit of a corner here. Last week of Jan and first 2 weeks of Feb are the meat of prime climo. We either go down in flames or a blaze of glory. If the very dry pattern subsides, we may turn a corner. Yesterday was an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, stormy said: If the very dry pattern subsides, we may turn a corner. Yesterday was an outlier. Yesterday was the first synoptic event post cold period. I don't think it's an outlier as much as a sign that the cold/dry pattern has indeed changed. The west coast is under the gun for a while. That will translate east in general. Maybe not our yards specifically but the east half of the country looks primed for several more decent precip events over the next two weeks. Mostly rain unfortunately from how it looks now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yesterday was the first synoptic event post cold period. I don't think it's an outlier as much as a sign that the cold/dry pattern has indeed changed. The west coast is under the gun for a while. That will translate east in general. Maybe not our yards specifically but the east half of the country looks primed for several more decent precip events over the next two weeks. Mostly rain unfortunately from how it looks now. I will treasure your expertise until I see it in my rain gage. I need moisture anyway I can get it. Private wells in the Valley are beginning to fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 FWIW with the 00z NAM, it's snowing in DC hour 78 to 84... but only about an inch of accumulation... more to the SW of 2 inches by CHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, yoda said: FWIW with the 00z NAM, it's snowing in DC hour 78 to 84... but only about an inch of accumulation... more to the SW of 2 inches by CHO Very light up this way. Who knows if the heavier stuff moves this far NE. But, it doesn't matter since it's the Nam at 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 4 minutes ago, yoda said: FWIW with the 00z NAM, it's snowing in DC hour 78 to 84... but only about an inch of accumulation... more to the SW of 2 inches by CHO Was a better look at 18z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, yoda said: FWIW with the 00z NAM, it's snowing in DC hour 78 to 84... but only about an inch of accumulation... more to the SW of 2 inches by CHO Nam looks a bit like a cluster of eps memebers with an enhanced "blob" embedded along the front. We aren't going to know if or where an area of enhanced precip will happen until probably mon-tues. Once the front is organized in real time the models will prob converge on a similar soltuion. Fingers crossed that it happens overhead. Gfs had it in central VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 500 on the NAM is, uhm, not the same compared to the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Just now, gymengineer said: 500 on the NAM is, uhm, not the same compared to the 18z. In a good or bad way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: In a good or bad way? Bad. Just toggle hr78 from 0z and 84 from 18z from last run and enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Just my two cents, really no scientific reasoning, but I think 1-3” is very doable. We’ve seen this an innumerable amount of times, events dry up 3-4 days out, only to get juiced the day before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: In a good or bad way? Not as far south dig as the 18Z run that had an echo of the good Euro runs. But the trough is also quite a bit further west. New look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Not as far south dig as the 18Z run that had an echo of the good Euro runs. But the trough is also quite a bit further west. New look.Way more positively tilted trof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 No closed h5 low on 00z GFS at hr 60 like there was at 18z hr 66 in MI H5 energy a bit more SW at 66 and 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Gfs looking good with the front/overruning this run. Trough digging back deeper and slower. Like that for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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