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January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2

WinterWxLuvr

By WinterWxLuvr,
in Mid Atlantic

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Ji

Ji

Posted
Posted

now chuck is a troll....not me lol. My mindset is that everything that possibly can go wrong has gone wrong for everything we have tracked this season so excuse my skepticism. Once we get that snow event, i promise ill change my attitude

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Ji said:

i really hope your not thinking what the euro and gfs are showing Friday as a precip event. The whole point is everything we have tracked falls apart as soon as we start getting closer to game time and i am not really seeing anything to change that. We are still dealing with mostly northern stream after Feb 2-3 and Feb 2-3 is starting too look like a cold front passage again. We cant seem to get over the hump Bob

I don't exactly know how it's going to play out any more than anyone else. I said several times that the euro/gfs runs showing 6" of snow or .5 - .8 precip are top end solutions and unlikely to happen. It's wave running a boundary at best and always has been. Somewhere in the range of .25 - .50 qpf is probably most realistic and that applies to every single event just like it. I think that's a pretty good number for 5 days leads. Snowfall gets tricky because temps are borderline. It could be all snow or no snow. If you set your bar at .75 QPF and 6" of snow then I don't think that's unrealistic. It's within the realm but way at the top of possible outcomes. 

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Ji

Ji

Posted
Posted

i think there was a GEFS graphic yesterday for the Feb 2/3 storm. like 60% of the members showed 2 or more inches of snow and like 10% showed a complete shutout. So why is the OP showing the 10%....its stuff like this thats driving me crazy and whats worse is that everytime i try to hit submit and stupid ad pops up and i have to click off it to post

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Scraff

Scraff

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Ji said:

i think there was a GEFS graphic yesterday for the Feb 2/3 storm. like 60% of the members showed 2 or more inches of snow and like 10% showed a complete shutout. So why is the OP showing the 10%....its stuff like this thats driving me crazy and whats worse is that everytime i try to hit submit and stupid ad pops up and i have to click off it to post

Yes. This! I’m talking about the damn pop ups. Lol. 

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, Ji said:

i think there was a GEFS graphic yesterday for the Feb 2/3 storm. like 60% of the members showed 2 or more inches of snow and like 10% showed a complete shutout. So why is the OP showing the 10%....its stuff like this thats driving me crazy and whats worse is that everytime i try to hit submit and stupid ad pops up and i have to click off it to post

While it sucks that the op run shows less than stellar outcome, it could very well show a smack down for the MA but would to bobs point still be considered an outlier at + 96 hours out. A light to moderate event has been showing up for a few days and at this lead....consistency within the models is all we can look for to identify where we are headed. 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

 Somehow I feel like you’re only half kidding.  

Maybe it would be for the best if we call it a wrap. We're possibly stealing some snow tues morning, the flip to a more productive pattern is happening ahead of schedule, and the we're still in the game for the very first opportunity in the new pattern but it's obviously a complete disaster of epic proportions. This game is fun to me but I'm becoming tired of hearing all the complaining and negativity. It's happening in advance of things that haven't even happened yet. We fight and struggle for snow 7 out of every 10 years. And this year is a nina no less. From the outside looking in it seems like we have a Rockies climo and are experiencing unprecedented failure when in reality we're experiencing a common normal winter. If we do get another decent snowfall half of the people around here won't even enjoy it because it's not perfect. 

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Interstate

Interstate

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Maybe it would be for the best if we call it a wrap. We're possibly stealing some snow tues morning, the flip to a more productive pattern is happening ahead of schedule, and the we're still in the game for the very first opportunity in the new pattern but it's obviously a complete disaster of epic proportions. This game is fun to me but I'm becoming tired of hearing all the complaining and negativity. It's happening in advance of things that haven't even happened yet. We fight and struggle for snow 7 out of every 10 years. And this year is a nina no less. From the outside looking in it seems like we have a Rockies climo and are experiencing unprecedented failure when in reality we're experiencing a common normal winter. If we do get another decent snowfall half of the people around here won't even enjoy it because it's not perfect. 

Bob... I guess some of the negativity is because we are beaten down.  I said on the Dec 8th snow... wouldn't this be funny if this was are only real snow... so far that has come to fruition.  It does become a little tiring see all of our chances flat out when the models hit the 5 day mark.  To be honest... I just want one event to cover the grass completely so I can sled ride with my little ones.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Bob... I guess some of the negativity is because we are beaten down.  I said on the Dec 8th snow... wouldn't this be funny if this was are only real snow... so far that has come to fruition.  It does become a little tiring see all of our chances flat out when the models hit the 5 day mark.  To be honest... I just want one event to cover the grass completely so I can sled ride with my little ones.

But that's normal. What bob is saying is 100% true.   3/10 years we get lucky and whatever combo of factors that influence our weather align in a way that favors snow and it comes easy. But we're in a location where that is the anamoly not the normal. It's like a slot where we need 7/10 numbers to align to win. We're gonna lose way more then win.  70% of the time our winters will be just like this. A lot of fails. A struggle to get every inch. And we will finish between 5-18" for the majority of the region. That's our normal winter. Some here seek to be confused and complain every freaking year that is like that as if they expect that anamoly 20"+ winter every time and act like a spoiled petulant child the 70% of the time it doesn't happen. And it's even worse when we get 2-3 years like that in a row because then we hear the "we're on an epic fail run" when in reality that happens all the damn time too. 1997-99 sucked. 2001-2002 sucked. 2007-2009 sucked. 2012-1013 sucked. We get 2-3 year suckage all the time yet every time we do this same game. "Omg this is the worst ever, we're getting screwed". No we're not we're getting climo. 

Imo some need to recalculate their expectations. Assume every year is going to be the 70% and just hope we manage one decent event and a few small ones and call it a win. Then cherish the fluke big years and hug them tight when they come. And then reserve the meltdowns and whining for the 1-2 truly epic fails we get every decade where we don't even manage one decent snowfall like 1998, 2002, 2012, 2013, 2017.  The whining would be more tolerable if it was once or twice a decade and not 70% of the time. 

Im really sorry if my rant offended anyone but my god the constant complaining gets old after a while. 

Eta:  I'm just as crazy as you all are about snow. And living near D.C. It was killing me so I moved up here and have to do a damn quest every day to get to work but that was better then driving myself crazy like some are. So I totally get the frustration but at some point you have to set expectations with reality. And if reality isn't going to make you happy then move because climo isn't going to change. Someday I'm probably going to move to Colorado or New England because even here I sometimes envy more snow. I'm sick just like all you so I am no better but you're torturing yourselves.  

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Maybe it would be for the best if we call it a wrap. We're possibly stealing some snow tues morning, the flip to a more productive pattern is happening ahead of schedule, and the we're still in the game for the very first opportunity in the new pattern but it's obviously a complete disaster of epic proportions. This game is fun to me but I'm becoming tired of hearing all the complaining and negativity. It's happening in advance of things that haven't even happened yet. We fight and struggle for snow 7 out of every 10 years. And this year is a nina no less. From the outside looking in it seems like we have a Rockies climo and are experiencing unprecedented failure when in reality we're experiencing a common normal winter. If we do get another decent snowfall half of the people around here won't even enjoy it because it's not perfect. 

I feel you Bob. It is getting to a point where I find no pleasure in reading through the discussion thread let alone spend the time to post something of value. I have to wonder how many others feel this way as well. Now if the powers that be feel that the board is most productive with this nonstop whining and weenism within the discussion thread then so be it. I will just move on to other avenues where I can enjoy the pleasure of tracking without having to deal with the children who's self interest override those of their fellow posters.

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Cobalt

Cobalt

Posted
Posted

Great post @psuhoffman

We tend to forget how many memories/memorable storms we've had in this past decade (counting 09/10). We've had the 3 blizzards of 2009/10, comuteageddon (my personal favorite), the rare October snowstorm in 2011, the Feb 12-14 2014 storm, the overachieving St Patty's day storm, that exceptional stretch from Mid Feb-early March 2015, and of course most recently, the Blizzard of 2016. We've in fact gone one better and have gotten 4 overachieving winters in the past 10 years. DCA's first 3 years in a row with above normal snowfall since the 60s. If anyone wants to say we're in a long term snow drought, they're completely wrong. Compare the past 10 years to the 90s, or even the 2000s, and you quickly realize how lucky we are. 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Bob... I guess some of the negativity is because we are beaten down.  I said on the Dec 8th snow... wouldn't this be funny if this was are only real snow... so far that has come to fruition.  It does become a little tiring see all of our chances flat out when the models hit the 5 day mark.  To be honest... I just want one event to cover the grass completely so I can sled ride with my little ones.

Just make sure you enjoy it even if you "only" get 3" when the forecast was for 6". 

I'm at the point where I find myself not wanting to post the good things I see on runs anymore. Which really sucks because that's the entire spirit that eastern and now amwx was built on. If it wasn't for that spirit there wouldn't even be any eastern or amwx. And now I find myself holding back. Wtf. 

18z gefs looked better than the op for Fri and continues the run of potential right through the end. It would go a long ways if people could wait until something is off the table before piling on the lead blanket of pessimism. Sure, Fri could be a whiff or all rain or non accum snow. But you know what? It might also be our best event of the year. Nobody has the power to see into the future. At least enjoy the chase and the potential. At least we HAVE potential. We spent 10 out of the 12 weeks of met winter last year with literally NO potential at all. That's b*tchworthy.

We haven't gone 2 week this whole winter without something intesting going on. Even if it didn't pan out big it's still fun to track this stuff. It's like hunting and fishing for me. I've gone out many days and came home empty handed. And you know what? I still had fun, enjoyed the chase, and looked forward to doing it again. I wish more of that spirit lived here nowadays. It clearly doesn't 

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Interstate

Interstate

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I feel you Bob. It is getting to a point where I find no pleasure in reading through the discussion thread let alone spend the time to post something of value. I have to wonder how many others feel this way as well. Now if the powers that be feel that the board is most productive with this nonstop whining and weenism within the discussion thread then so be it. I will just move on to other avenues where I can enjoy the pleasure of tracking without having to deal with the children who's self interest override those of their fellow posters.

Well since the PSA didn't work it might be time to limit posting of some that puts post in the wrong area.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Just make sure you enjoy it even if you "only" get 3" when the forecast was for 6". 

I'm at the point where I find myself not wanting to post the good things I see on runs anymore. Which really sucks because that's the entire spirit that eastern and now amwx was built on. If it wasn't for that spirit there wouldn't even be any eastern or amwx. And now I find myself holding back. Wtf. 

18z gefs looked better than the op for Fri and continues the run of potential right through the end. It would go a long ways if people could wait until something is off the table before piling on the lead blanket of pessimism. Sure, Fri could be a whiff or all rain or non accum snow. But you know what? It might also be our best event of the year. Nobody has the power to see into the future. At least enjoy the chase and the potential. At least we HAVE potential. We spent 10 out of the 12 weeks of met winter last year with literally NO potential at all. That's b*tchworthy.

We haven't gone 2 week this whole winter without something intesting going on. Even if it didn't pan out big it's still fun to track this stuff. It's like hunting and fishing for me. I've gone out many days and came home empty handed. And you know what? I still had fun, enjoyed the chase, and looked forward to doing it again. I wish more of that spirit lived here nowadays. It clearly doesn't 

God I'm with you. Could we start an "analysis only" thread where whining and crap is not tolerated at all. I know technically the goal was to confine that crap to the panic room but mods don't want to be heavy handed with deleting posts and I totally get that but it's just getting out of hand.  To me it's that the complaining is now discouraging substantive analysis. The whiners jump all over any mention of optimistic assessments to the point it makes me think twice about posting my objective opinion sometimes too. Knowing someone is gonna chime in with "yea right it won't happen". So maybe if the mods aren't comfortable being heavy handed in regular threads we could start a "no complaints analysis thread" and then they won't feel so bad deleting crap because it's one thread specifically for avoiding that. In reality it's semantics because the substantive posts here would just migrate over there.. I'm aware but darn it whatever it takes at this point. I don't even mind bad analysis, some are just trying to learn and I sucked at this once too, but the discouraging of analysis in favor of a pity party is inexcusable. 

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