Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 Just now, Thanatos_I_Am said: Ji ain’t gonna like this Euro run. Yea, that's an ugly way to get skipped over. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 Surface is the issue with the euro run so it's actually closer to a decent mod event than the panels show. Wasn't a huge shift away from previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 Well I guess we can say all options are still on the table lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 as usual....a disastrous day in modeling when it comes to snow. keep trying guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Well I guess we can say all options are still on the table lol. Yea, let's hug the gefs. Check out how many members have 3-4 events. No way to fail! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Well I guess we can say all options are still on the table lol. DT will will pad himself on the back. Granted, he did do a brief post on the possible upcoming event, however, he has maintained his stance that for us in the Mid Atlantic we need to wait a bit longer for the MJO progression. He has held to that belief/forecast. Nothing set in stone, so of course logically you are correct, all the options are on the table at this timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 The gefs always looks good until the storm we are tracking comes into focus Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 13 minutes ago, Ji said: The gefs always looks good until the storm we are tracking comes into focus Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk We’re in a valley just above the Earth’s core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 25 minutes ago, frd said: DT will will pad himself on the back. Granted, he did do a brief post on the possible upcoming event, however, he has maintained his stance that for us in the Mid Atlantic we need to wait a bit longer for the MJO progression. He has held to that belief/forecast. Nothing set in stone, so of course logically you are correct, all the options are on the table at this timeframe. I think the mjo gets too much attention. I'm not doubting the favorable phases becuase there is data backing it up but we get snow in all phases. Our winter wx is as much due to luck as it is favorable indices. There is plenty of data supporting both sides of the argument except for big storms. They usually coincide with 8-1-2. However, much of our snowfall comes from smaller flawed events. Feb 14&15 were mostly phase 7 with some 6 in there iirc. I'll go back and look at some data this week and show hard numbers but I'm 100% positive that I can find many many exceptions to the "8-1-2" rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I think the mjo gets too much attention. I'm not doubting the favorable phases becuase there is data backing it up but we get snow in all phases. Our winter wx is as much due to luck as it is favorable indices. There is plenty of data supporting both sides of the argument except for big storms. They usually coincide with 8-1-2. However, much of our snowfall comes from smaller flawed events. Feb 14&15 were mostly phase 7 with some 6 in there iirc. I'll go back and look at some data this week and show hard numbers but I'm 100% positive that I can find many many exceptions to the "8-1-2" rule. I agree. My guess is fo you look at the correlations between phases and snowfall that R squared is pretty low and that much of the variance would be from other factors besides the MJO being in a phase favorable for the mean trough being in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Unsurprisingly, the GEFS went weak/dry also. Wouldn't have expected it any other way though. GEFS always plays the leader inside of 7 days. The d7-8 event is getting interesting though. Maybe we can get 3 events in a week and crack 6" total. It is always the next 7-8 day event... until it gets within 5 days... Then it is the next 7-8 day events. I also like how we are now calling them events instead of storms. Very close to getting Reaped. Tomorrow night better pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I think the mjo gets too much attention. I'm not doubting the favorable phases becuase there is data backing it up but we get snow in all phases. Our winter wx is as much due to luck as it is favorable indices. There is plenty of data supporting both sides of the argument except for big storms. They usually coincide with 8-1-2. However, much of our snowfall comes from smaller flawed events. Feb 14&15 were mostly phase 7 with some 6 in there iirc. I'll go back and look at some data this week and show hard numbers but I'm 100% positive that I can find many many exceptions to the "8-1-2" rule. Bob, I know you feel that way, and corectly, there are many things at play, anyone focusing on one all, be all, is either too confident or refuses to seek and admit to other minor and obscure drivers that play a role in our snowfall. Using MJO as a supplement could reinforce other forecasting tools. Also, was not the +PNA a factor in the winters of 14 & 15. SST driven/supported in at least one instance I believe, within the strong positive PDO at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 Check out, the Euro has a >570 block over Scandinavia. Late Jan/early Feb this rolls forward to pretty strong SE ridge 15-30 days (I think). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 The GEPS have been more cautious about the Feb 2/3 event than the GEFS, for the most part keeping DC below 1" on the snow depth mean. They didn't back off much on today's 12z run. It looks like they're mostly tightening up the spread (and the gradient on the mean) over time. Here's the mean snow depth for Saturday morning over the last 6 GEPS runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 5 minutes ago, Interstate said: It is always the next 7-8 day event... until it gets within 5 days... Then it is the next 7-8 day events. I also like how we are now calling them events instead of storms. Very close to getting Reaped. Tomorrow night better pan out. On the positive side though I prefer this winter where the events go poof in the 4-6 day range instead of in the 2 day range which is much more disappointing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Yet again with today’s rain, totals have far underperformed short range guidance even let alone medium range. Got to keep that in mind as well until there’s a good reason to change. The few storms that have had a gulf or Atlantic moisture connection this winter, except maybe the Jan 4th storm, have been drier than advertised. Congratulations!! You are very perceptive. And, a professional. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 1 hour ago, Ji said: as usual....a disastrous day in modeling when it comes to snow. keep trying guys honestly dude. Noone is trying to get YOU snow!! Your constant negative tone makes you come off like you know better than the rest of the bunch. It was funny, now its just tiresome. Pick a new hobby like knitting or something where everything you do is progress. Offer some analysis while you constantly troll. Whether we get it or not, the analysis and input by many here is fantastic...no matter what your back yard looks like. Get over yourself. and MODS...I'm sorry for the rant. But if the constant trolling was in the banter thread, i'd keep my pie hole shut. Apologies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 7 minutes ago, pasnownut said: honestly dude. Noone is trying to get YOU snow!! Your constant negative tone makes you come off like you know better than the rest of the bunch. It was funny, now its just tiresome. Pick a new hobby like knitting or something where everything you do is progress. Offer some analysis while you constantly troll. Whether we get it or not, the analysis and input by many here is fantastic...no matter what your back yard looks like. Get over yourself. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 8 minutes ago, pasnownut said: honestly dude. Noone is trying to get YOU snow!! Your constant negative tone makes you come off like you know better than the rest of the bunch. It was funny, now its just tiresome. Pick a new hobby like knitting or something where everything you do is progress. Offer some analysis while you constantly troll. Whether we get it or not, the analysis and input by many here is fantastic...no matter what your back yard looks like. Get over yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 looking at ensembles at 240, looks like GEFS/EPS are similar, and GEPS is on its own. Not looking much farther beyond for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 honestly dude. Noone is trying to get YOU snow!! Your constant negative tone makes you come off like you know better than the rest of the bunch. It was funny, now its just tiresome. Pick a new hobby like knitting or something where everything you do is progress. Offer some analysis while you constantly troll. Whether we get it or not, the analysis and input by many here is fantastic...no matter what your back yard looks like. Get over yourself. and MODS...I'm sorry for the rant. But if the constant trolling was in the banter thread, i'd keep my pie hole shut. Apologies.What trolling? I'm not the ones taking these storms away that we spend so much tracking only to see them keep poof. And less than helpful ensembles are making this to the point where you can't be anything than negative. The storm going poof wasn't even an option yesterday. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 13 minutes ago, pasnownut said: looking at ensembles at 240, looks like GEFS/EPS are similar, and GEPS is on its own. Not looking much farther beyond for now. Gefs and eps looks basically the same for the next 2 weeks. +pna driven progressive pattern with seemingly a lot of activity. Precip events pretty tightly spaced with 3-4 days tops in between. Win, lose, or draw....there will be no shortage of things to track. Busy 10 days and beyond. The only detail worth mentioning about d10-15 is it looks basically the same as d5-10. My guess is d15-20 will look similar too. Big storms won't come easy but chances for snow are above to much above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 Look at the bright side ... The CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks both call for below average temperatures and above normal precipitation. The EPS gives us a >90% chance of at least one inch of snow during the next 15 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: The storm going poof wasn't even an option yesterday. Really dude? Who told you that. Every single medium range storm can go poof. And it can unpoof too. You've been doing this for longer than me. I shouldnt even have to make this post. Nothing is ever locked in beyond d3-4 and even that is pushing it. There's a pretty high probability of a precip event of some sort on Friday. That's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 33 minutes ago, Ji said: What trolling? I'm not the ones taking these storms away that we spend so much tracking only to see them keep poof. And less than helpful ensembles are making this to the point where you can't be anything than negative. The storm going poof wasn't even an option yesterday. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk How many years have you been at this?? Enough to know that we often lose storms in the middle range, only to see them come back to life inside 48-72 hrs. If you were a newbie I'd get it....your not. Stop looking at models verbatim and start using the space between your ears. Your better than your posts show, so act like it, and while you may be right in the end, history of medium range model watching suggests you could more than likely be wrong. For the record, this isnt an attack, and I'm not here for likes and emojies to my responses. I enjoy weather analysis and some fun along the way. If its too much to ask for you to put some input into your reasoning why you think otherwise, than that's on you. Stop the 1 liners. We get it...were nervous too. again mods.....apologies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 43 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Gefs and eps looks basically the same for the next 2 weeks. +pna driven progressive pattern with seemingly a lot of activity. Precip events pretty tightly spaced with 3-4 days tops in between. Win, lose, or draw....there will be no shortage of things to track. Busy 10 days and beyond. The only detail worth mentioning about d10-15 is it looks basically the same as d5-10. My guess is d15-20 will look similar too. Big storms won't come easy but chances for snow are above to much above normal. ok....full disclosure,,,i cannot tell a lie....i peeked. 384 GEFS is sweet. Just not getting too wrapped up in the longER range, as to Ji's point...sometimes things go poof. I think we'll roll the dice inside 240 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 39 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Really dude? Who told you that. Every single medium range storm can go poof. And it can unpoof too. You've been doing this for longer than me. I shouldnt even have to make this post. Nothing is ever locked in beyond d3-4 and even that is pushing it. There's a pretty high probability of a precip event of some sort on Friday. That's it. i really hope your not thinking what the euro and gfs are showing Friday as a precip event. The whole point is everything we have tracked falls apart as soon as we start getting closer to game time and i am not really seeing anything to change that. We are still dealing with mostly northern stream after Feb 2-3 and Feb 2-3 is starting too look like a cold front passage again. We cant seem to get over the hump Bob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 Could hit 60 Wednesday. edit I meant Thursday. was looking only at 850mb, it's a day later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 1 minute ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Could hit 60 Wednesday Looks like we have a bigger chance to be sub-freezing on Wednesday than to hit 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Could hit 60 Wednesday I could hit the lottery Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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