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January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2


WinterWxLuvr

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

We have full agreement of the general pattern through d15. Cfs and euro weeklies imply that it holds through the first week of March. We have 2 threats in the SHORT&MED range. I repeat SHORT&MED range. Active pattern right through d15 on the ens with weenie runs coming out every 6-12 hours. 

Best look by 100's of miles this winter. Optimism is a completely acceptable response. The only thing missing is a big storm setup. PD2 was pretty much 100% pna driven. Maybe pd3 will be too. 

The pattern the next 2 weeks fits what is typically a mix events type situation for D.C. And Baltimore. Snow threats galore but don't expect all snow powder bombs. History suggests a lot of 1-3 or 2-4" with ice and rain mixed in is the most likely outcome. We could get lucky and score a flush hit but that's not the majority when looking at past examples of this pattern. But shutouts aren't the norm either. This could be a lot of fun provided people don't whine if PA is getting 8" while we get 2-3" and mix. That's climo for this type pattern so don't set yourself up for disappointment expecting otherwise and if we end to the jackpot then celebrate.

What comes after is what has me even more optimistic. As you said the pattern is universal on all guidance. The epo ridge goes ape and the lower heights slowly migrate east across Canada. The look early on is good for smaller snow threats with weak waves along the boundary that should be oscillating around our region the next 2 weeks. But towards day 15 as the PV ends up to our north and northeast things  start to take on the look we need to score a more significant event in an epo driven pattern. 

Earlier this year when the epo showed as the dominant feature I went and pulled out every significant snow for our area I could find on a -epo +nao pattern. The look was pretty much what the day 15 gefs EPS shows now. Big epo ridge and lower heights to our north and northeast. Now by big I mean 6-12". It's still not a typical HECS pattern PD2 excluded. I highly doubt absent the raging stj and modoki Nino from that year we can pull a fluke like that off again. But I'm not one that lives HECS to HECS.  I swear if we score a couple 2-4" mix events then a 6-12" and someone complains I'm gonna troll them unmercifully.  JI excluded. One jaded sarcastic wisea$$ is ok, too many is annoying. Sorry newbies ji filled the position.

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13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro ens mostly agree with the op. Not many upside solutions but I wouldn't expect this type of deal to drop 4-8". It could of course but if we can pull off a 2-4/3-5 it would be sweet victory. 

I wish we were 72 hours closer though. These narrow stripes don't leave much cushion on either side. Plenty of lead time for things to go awry. Maybe the tues morning deal is a sign that our number is called. Not sure. I have a hunch there will be another threat beyond Friday on the radar by mid week. That could help soften the blow if this one slips away. 

Maybe some similarities to the Jan. 21st  2014 system. That one was 1-3/2-4 type deal 2 days out and ended up hitting max potential. 

Similar type wave that waited on cold to sink south. Colder air mass however with that one. This one may be a little narrower so it's tricky if not scary to miss altogether. 

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I would be ecstatic with a 6-10, 8-12 storm at this point. I'm pretty down on the Friday storm. 3-5 if everything breaks right. It would still be my biggest snow of the season, but sweating out a non-warning level snow is just more of the same of the past three years, minus the blizzard.

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Crap, gfs is flattening out h5 for the fri deal. I fear that more than amped/rain. Icon is a good hit though. I'll hug that for now. 

Doesn’t look like it snows at all on GFS.  Big change from last 4 runs.  Can’t be right. 

 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Crap, gfs is flattening out h5 for the fri deal. I fear that more than amped/rain. Icon is a good hit though. I'll hug that for now. 

I will admit this years trends are worrisome itr. But... this pattern isn't exactly the same as the previous one. The cold is centered to our north this time. The cold shouldn't be soul crushing this time. 

That said there are some trends with these boundary waves that seem almost universal. Some of the most consistent of any type system. The tend to over amp from range. Become overly suppressed in medium range. Then trend more amped within 48-72 hours. 

I don't want it squashed to nothing. It's only going to come back so far. But if the consensus is just a bit south and squashed at 72 hours I'm ok.  History says every time we were the bullseye at 72 on these type things we then watched it slowly slip away to our north. 

Think last feb. And think back to all those systems in 2015 before things finally broke our way because the cold went ape. We were pulling our hair out as system after system teased us from day 3-5 only to hit PA to New England. Maybe this years trend of squashed will continue but my gut says we don't want to be the bullseye now. 

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1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

Doesn’t look like it snows at all on GFS.  Big change from last 4 runs.  Can’t be right. 

 

Wouldn't be the first time we've seen amped in the med/long morph to flat med/short. Agree that it was big shift. Previous 7 runs looked similar and now the 12z goes off course. We'll know soon enough if it's a blip or not. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Wouldn't be the first time we've seen amped in the med/long morph to flat med/short. Agree that it was big shift. Previous 7 runs looked similar and now the 12z goes off course. We'll know soon enough if it's a blip or not. 

The SE Ridge is further east and bit weaker.  Seems like that was all that was holding the front and letting it buckle a bit...no buckle no snow

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1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

I fear the GFS this year..when it goes down  a road others seem to follow. 

If we were inside the 4 day range it would spook me more. Every threat we track has off op runs in the med range. I don't have a gut feeling either way about the gfs. The good thing is it was still right in the pocket and not some wholesale change. Just like Psu said, if we're still close in a couple days it can easily amp back up as we close the lead. 

Euro trended a little flatter/weaker from 12z to 0z. We'll see how it goes today. If nothing else, time is on our side no matter what the solution. That won't be the case in 48 hours though. 

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10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Lol- gfs making amends next weekend. Loving this repeating pattern look. We may have 3 threats under 7 days here shortly. I'm already planning my work schedule around model suites. Lol

The best part of this pattern is it's stability and from that the sheer number of threats we will get. Each one might have a low hit probability but over the course of several weeks the math is on our side. Similar to 2015 when we struck out the first several threats in what was a Jan 20-march 20 pattern.  I felt confident given more opportunities our luck would change. The patten didn't significantly shift, the cold pressed a bit more and we just scored a few hits. If this pattern locks in for 4-5 weeks it would take monumental bad luck to not manage one good hit. 

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5 minutes ago, Ji said:

so i go to church...come back and the the storm on the GFS is entirely gone. I guess i should of paid more attention at church

Unsurprisingly, the GEFS went weak/dry also. Wouldn't have expected it any other way though. GEFS always plays the leader inside of 7 days. The d7-8 event is getting interesting though. Maybe we can get 3 events in a week and crack 6" total. 

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Unsurprisingly, the GEFS went weak/dry also. Wouldn't have expected it any other way though. GEFS always plays the leader inside of 7 days. The d7-8 event is getting interesting though. Maybe we can get 3 events in a week and crack 6" total. 

this is like 2012-2013 when i had 23 events and 18 inches of snow

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Just now, Ji said:

this is like 2012-2013 when i had 23 events and 18 inches of snow

Can't be choosers. So far this winter has chosen to pretty much miss my yard except for the early Dec event. GEFS is VERY active. Tues/Friday/Sun/Wed all have potential. Can't remember the last time I saw 4 potential events packed into 10 days. Yes, all inside 10 days. lol

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14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Unsurprisingly, the GEFS went weak/dry also. Wouldn't have expected it any other way though. GEFS always plays the leader inside of 7 days. The d7-8 event is getting interesting though. Maybe we can get 3 events in a week and crack 6" total. 

It’s funny how even that event on the EPS and Euro 2-3 days back was a massive amped wave with a huge SE  ridge and that has definitely trended flatter the last 4 runs or so.  That may be more a product of the Euro and even the GFS overdoing the SE ridge somewhat beyond 2/6 and consistently backing down on that idea now.  Here in NYC we are trying to see how long we can go without a snow to rain event.  I’m not sure we’ve ever recorded 20 inches or more at any point in a season without having one event like that.  Either a Southwest flow event or a coastal runner

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Crap, gfs is flattening out h5 for the fri deal. I fear that more than amped/rain. Icon is a good hit though. I'll hug that for now. 

Yeah I found that interesting, but having the 12z CMC/Icon shifting the axis of best snows south give me some hope that were all still plenty in the game.

 

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Yet again with today’s rain, totals have far underperformed short range guidance even let alone medium range. Got to keep that in mind as well until there’s a good reason to change. The few storms that have had a gulf or Atlantic moisture connection this winter, except maybe the Jan 4th storm, have been drier than advertised.

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6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It’s funny how even that event on the EPS and Euro 2-3 days back was a massive amped wave with a huge SE  ridge and that has definitely trended flatter the last 4 runs or so.  That may be more a product of the Euro and even the GFS overdoing the SE ridge somewhat beyond 2/6 and consistently backing down on that idea now.  Here in NYC we are trying to see how long we can go without a snow to rain event.  I’m not sure we’ve ever recorded 20 inches or more at any point in a season without having one event like that.  Either a Southwest flow event or a coastal runner

Storms flattening in the mid range has been an undeniable trend this year. Still a lot of time left before we know what we're dealing with. Sure looks freekin active over the next 2 weeks though. May not have a prolific precip producers but the odds of pretty much everyone from the MA region northward getting accum snow over the next 2 weeks looks pretty good. One of the more active periods I can recall seeing since Feb 2015. 

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