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January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2


WinterWxLuvr

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Not to echo but yea I'm totally ok with the gfs missing south right now. This is very likely to trend north the last 72 hours. Nothing to stop it really. One thing I will say might work in our favor and argue against snowgooses valid point is the progressive nature of this pattern. It will likely amp up some towards the end but it's a wave on a front and unlikely to go too amped. Things just want to keep moving this year. Perhaps that caps how far north this can trend. In the end though I'm more worried of rain then a miss south att. 

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15 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I think this event is fairly likely to end up amped and inland because of the phase the MJO is in as well as the WAR being a problem with almost every system the last few winters  

Maybe, but the trend from the med to short range this year has been to deamplify and flatten things. We've seen that quite a few times this winter. Normally I would worry more about amped/rain but winter wx events haven't been trending that way.

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5 minutes ago, Ji said:

D9 looks interesting

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
 

Splits and misses us. Typical. Lol. I don't like seeing that 1040 high blasting into the Deep South though. Let's not start that crap again. Ugh. But not over reacting to one op run but seriously if we start seeing guidance trending towards that me no likey. 

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

You have 9 days to sort that part out. Just seeing precip in the vicinity of cold air on an op at 9 day leads is basically the same as a storm. 

Agree but this was one hell of a tease run. Miss south. Miss north. Miss south. lol 

eta: if the next 3-5 weeks plays out that way though I won't be laughing though. 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Agree but this was one hell of a tease run. Miss south. Miss north. Miss south. lol 

eta: if the next 3-5 weeks plays out that way though I won't be laughing though. 

Come on man, you know how to do this...the cmc already took care of the d9 thing. We toss the gfs. Icon covered Friday unless the euro looks better. 

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Not sure want to think about the next Friday event. Seasonal trend has been to deamplify but this is a different pattern we are in now. This looks like a system that you would want south of you at 96 hours but the eastern shore has had the hot hand this year so who knows.

The last few runs the configuration has changed somewhat. The northern part has fizzled out and the southern part has been ramping up.Yesterday there was heavy shows north west of us up into the northeast. That has dried up with more focus south of us. The whole event has taken on a different look since yesterday.

 

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5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

In case we'll need some wiggle room...I'd rather it tick south than north at this range, lol

Yeah, I agree. We saw how it payed off to be on the Northern tier of heaviest snow in events such as the Blizzard of 2016. Southern parts, naso much. I like our chances of DCA getting 2" or more from this event. My main concern is having the storm go to our North imo. 

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7 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Splits and misses us. Typical. Lol. I don't like seeing that 1040 high blasting into the Deep South though. Let's not start that crap again. Ugh. But not over reacting to one op run but seriously if we start seeing guidance trending towards that me no likey. 

Agreed about the 1040 high blasting cold. I'll take that rain snow line anytime, straight up the ass, like Nassar in state prison, with gusto. We DON'T need extreme cold.

If I get rain and Chill gets a foot of pow, I'll be content.

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EPS has shown incremental improvements in the longwave pattern for the east coast over the last few runs. 0z edition looks really nice at the end, with with western ridge axis further east (more +PNA), very stout EPO ridge, and deeper trough in the east with the biggest h5 +height anomalies to our NE out over the western Atlantic. Lower Heights just west of there in the general 50-50 region. Looks like the PV could drop the hammer in a couple weeks. It's nice that we may score a couple times (this week) at the very front end of this pattern change, but man what lies ahead could be really fun.

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3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

EPS has shown incremental improvements in the longwave pattern for the east coast over the last few runs. 0z edition looks really nice at the end, with with western ridge axis further east (more +PNA), very stout EPO ridge, and deeper trough in the east with the biggest h5 +height anomalies to our NE out over the western Atlantic. Lower Heights just west of there in the general 50-50 region. Looks like the PV could drop the hammer in a couple weeks. It's nice that we may score a couple times (this week) at the very front end of this pattern change, but man what lies ahead could be really fun.

Who cares because it's never going to snow. ***whine***. Why do we even care what the long range shows because it is never right, unless it shows no snow. ***whine***. Models suck so I don't think anybody should be following them. ***whine*** The op run says I am only going to get 3 inches of snow 10 days from now but the run before said I would get 10. That's not fair. ***whine***We are in the middle of a drought so we will never get snow. ***whine***

***whine***

***whine***

***whine***

***whine***

***whine***

 

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Really starting to feel good about seeing snow around the Friday time period through the MD region. It is a pretty straight forward setup at this time and models have been pretty steadfast on the major features. Barring a major shift chances are looking good at this point. As long as people go into this with expectations of no more then a 1-3 inch type deal I think they will leave happy. This is not to say I don't think we can't see more (top end 4-8 maybe?) just that chances favor closer to a 1-3 then a 4-8 type deal.

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We have full agreement of the general pattern through d15. Cfs and euro weeklies imply that it holds through the first week of March. We have 2 threats in the SHORT&MED range. I repeat SHORT&MED range. Active pattern right through d15 on the ens with weenie runs coming out every 6-12 hours. 

Best look by 100's of miles this winter. Optimism is a completely acceptable response. The only thing missing is a big storm setup. PD2 was pretty much 100% pna driven. Maybe pd3 will be too. 

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16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We have full agreement of the general pattern through d15. Cfs and euro weeklies imply that it holds through the first week of March. We have 2 threats in the SHORT&MED range. I repeat SHORT&MED range. Active pattern right through d15 on the ens with weenie runs coming out every 6-12 hours. 

Best look by 100's of miles this winter. Optimism is a completely acceptable response. The only thing missing is a big storm setup. PD2 was pretty much 100% pna driven. Maybe pd3 will be too. 

yeah man.  Not much to complain about after after what were seeing over the last few days........

 

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3 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Thanks... sorry didn't see that.  I thought it was the entire run up til 138

Euro ens mostly agree with the op. Not many upside solutions but I wouldn't expect this type of deal to drop 4-8". It could of course but if we can pull off a 2-4/3-5 it would be sweet victory. 

I wish we were 72 hours closer though. These narrow stripes don't leave much cushion on either side. Plenty of lead time for things to go awry. Maybe the tues morning deal is a sign that our number is called. Not sure. I have a hunch there will be another threat beyond Friday on the radar by mid week. That could help soften the blow if this one slips away. 

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