psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 Not to echo but yea I'm totally ok with the gfs missing south right now. This is very likely to trend north the last 72 hours. Nothing to stop it really. One thing I will say might work in our favor and argue against snowgooses valid point is the progressive nature of this pattern. It will likely amp up some towards the end but it's a wave on a front and unlikely to go too amped. Things just want to keep moving this year. Perhaps that caps how far north this can trend. In the end though I'm more worried of rain then a miss south att. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: D9 looks interesting Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk It did until all the precipitation associated went north south east and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 15 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I think this event is fairly likely to end up amped and inland because of the phase the MJO is in as well as the WAR being a problem with almost every system the last few winters Maybe, but the trend from the med to short range this year has been to deamplify and flatten things. We've seen that quite a few times this winter. Normally I would worry more about amped/rain but winter wx events haven't been trending that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ji said: D9 looks interesting Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Splits and misses us. Typical. Lol. I don't like seeing that 1040 high blasting into the Deep South though. Let's not start that crap again. Ugh. But not over reacting to one op run but seriously if we start seeing guidance trending towards that me no likey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, RedSky said: It did until all the precipitation associated went north south east and west You have 9 days to sort that part out. Just seeing precip in the vicinity of cold air on an op at 9 day leads is basically the same as a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 5 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Lol GGEM is somehow still a semi-decent hit for DC and NW burbs Umm because that snow is from the day 8-9 storm not the feb 2 one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: Umm because that snow is from the day 8-9 storm not the feb 2 one. Oh sorry. Just realized lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: You have 9 days to sort that part out. Just seeing precip in the vicinity of cold air on an op at 9 day leads is basically the same as a storm. Agree but this was one hell of a tease run. Miss south. Miss north. Miss south. lol eta: if the next 3-5 weeks plays out that way though I won't be laughing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Agree but this was one hell of a tease run. Miss south. Miss north. Miss south. lol eta: if the next 3-5 weeks plays out that way though I won't be laughing though. Come on man, you know how to do this...the cmc already took care of the d9 thing. We toss the gfs. Icon covered Friday unless the euro looks better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 Not sure want to think about the next Friday event. Seasonal trend has been to deamplify but this is a different pattern we are in now. This looks like a system that you would want south of you at 96 hours but the eastern shore has had the hot hand this year so who knows. The last few runs the configuration has changed somewhat. The northern part has fizzled out and the southern part has been ramping up.Yesterday there was heavy shows north west of us up into the northeast. That has dried up with more focus south of us. The whole event has taken on a different look since yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Come on man, you know how to do this...the cmc already took care of the d9 thing. We toss the gfs. Icon covered Friday unless the euro looks better. People are going to go crazy each run in this pattern. From range these waves are going to jump all over run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: People are going to go crazy each run in this pattern. From range these waves are going to jump all over run to run. I cant tell for sure with the 24 hour spacing but I think the ukie would snow on us between 120-144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 Repeating pattern on the gfs...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 Yea, gefs looks great for the d5-6 threat. Best run yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 Euro is decent hit, but backed off of 5"+ totals like it had the past 2 runs. Don't like having this thing trend South given seasonal trends, but a 3" event would greatly boost spirits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 16 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Euro is decent hit, but backed off of 5"+ totals like it had the past 2 runs. Don't like having this thing trend South given seasonal trends, but a 3" event would greatly boost spirits In case we'll need some wiggle room...I'd rather it tick south than north at this range, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: In case we'll need some wiggle room...I'd rather it tick south than north at this range, lol Yeah, I agree. We saw how it payed off to be on the Northern tier of heaviest snow in events such as the Blizzard of 2016. Southern parts, naso much. I like our chances of DCA getting 2" or more from this event. My main concern is having the storm go to our North imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 At this point in time, 00UT EPS and 06 UT GFS also concur on 2" at DCA for next Friday. The EPS probability for >6" next Friday is 4%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 7 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Splits and misses us. Typical. Lol. I don't like seeing that 1040 high blasting into the Deep South though. Let's not start that crap again. Ugh. But not over reacting to one op run but seriously if we start seeing guidance trending towards that me no likey. Agreed about the 1040 high blasting cold. I'll take that rain snow line anytime, straight up the ass, like Nassar in state prison, with gusto. We DON'T need extreme cold. If I get rain and Chill gets a foot of pow, I'll be content. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 EPS has shown incremental improvements in the longwave pattern for the east coast over the last few runs. 0z edition looks really nice at the end, with with western ridge axis further east (more +PNA), very stout EPO ridge, and deeper trough in the east with the biggest h5 +height anomalies to our NE out over the western Atlantic. Lower Heights just west of there in the general 50-50 region. Looks like the PV could drop the hammer in a couple weeks. It's nice that we may score a couple times (this week) at the very front end of this pattern change, but man what lies ahead could be really fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: EPS has shown incremental improvements in the longwave pattern for the east coast over the last few runs. 0z edition looks really nice at the end, with with western ridge axis further east (more +PNA), very stout EPO ridge, and deeper trough in the east with the biggest h5 +height anomalies to our NE out over the western Atlantic. Lower Heights just west of there in the general 50-50 region. Looks like the PV could drop the hammer in a couple weeks. It's nice that we may score a couple times (this week) at the very front end of this pattern change, but man what lies ahead could be really fun. Who cares because it's never going to snow. ***whine***. Why do we even care what the long range shows because it is never right, unless it shows no snow. ***whine***. Models suck so I don't think anybody should be following them. ***whine*** The op run says I am only going to get 3 inches of snow 10 days from now but the run before said I would get 10. That's not fair. ***whine***We are in the middle of a drought so we will never get snow. ***whine*** ***whine*** ***whine*** ***whine*** ***whine*** ***whine*** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 Really starting to feel good about seeing snow around the Friday time period through the MD region. It is a pretty straight forward setup at this time and models have been pretty steadfast on the major features. Barring a major shift chances are looking good at this point. As long as people go into this with expectations of no more then a 1-3 inch type deal I think they will leave happy. This is not to say I don't think we can't see more (top end 4-8 maybe?) just that chances favor closer to a 1-3 then a 4-8 type deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 Friday is in range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 We have full agreement of the general pattern through d15. Cfs and euro weeklies imply that it holds through the first week of March. We have 2 threats in the SHORT&MED range. I repeat SHORT&MED range. Active pattern right through d15 on the ens with weenie runs coming out every 6-12 hours. Best look by 100's of miles this winter. Optimism is a completely acceptable response. The only thing missing is a big storm setup. PD2 was pretty much 100% pna driven. Maybe pd3 will be too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We have full agreement of the general pattern through d15. Cfs and euro weeklies imply that it holds through the first week of March. We have 2 threats in the SHORT&MED range. I repeat SHORT&MED range. Active pattern right through d15 on the ens with weenie runs coming out every 6-12 hours. Best look by 100's of miles this winter. Optimism is a completely acceptable response. The only thing missing is a big storm setup. PD2 was pretty much 100% pna driven. Maybe pd3 will be too. yeah man. Not much to complain about after after what were seeing over the last few days........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 8 hours ago, Cobalt said: Euro is decent hit, but backed off of 5"+ totals like it had the past 2 runs. Don't like having this thing trend South given seasonal trends, but a 3" event would greatly boost spirits How much of this falls tomorrow into Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 4 minutes ago, Interstate said: How much of this falls tomorrow into Tuesday? That’s a 24 hour snowfall map at hour 138 so none. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said: That’s a 24 hour snowfall map at hour 138 so none. Thanks... sorry didn't see that. I thought it was the entire run up til 138 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, Interstate said: Thanks... sorry didn't see that. I thought it was the entire run up til 138 Euro ens mostly agree with the op. Not many upside solutions but I wouldn't expect this type of deal to drop 4-8". It could of course but if we can pull off a 2-4/3-5 it would be sweet victory. I wish we were 72 hours closer though. These narrow stripes don't leave much cushion on either side. Plenty of lead time for things to go awry. Maybe the tues morning deal is a sign that our number is called. Not sure. I have a hunch there will be another threat beyond Friday on the radar by mid week. That could help soften the blow if this one slips away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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