Ji Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 i have never seen jaw dropping amounts like that for run after run after run where we ended up getting zero. This was as close to march 2001 as i have ever gotten Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 7 minutes ago, Ji said: i mean there was ensemble support. GEFS and EPS constantly had us in dark blue/purple colors It was still way out in time though. We're inside of 7 days now and things still look good. Ops and ensembles are all showing the same thing and it's not a single event like the Dec head fake. I know it can all go poof and we're definitely not in the locked range but this upcoming period is at closer leads and looks to continue beyond the end of the ens runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ji said: thats why the GEFS weenie runs dont really excite me. they are all 10-15 days away Again, a lot of good stuff is showing well inside of 10-15 days. I get the argument about long range being unstable but we're almost in the med range with 2 legit threats showing up. I get your pessimism but at least accept that we have 2 chances at snow that are NOT in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 6 minutes ago, Interstate said: I would say the rug pulled out from under us. The storm was still 7 days away when he models switched Exaclty, we never got into the believable range. It looked great for a few days but we never got inside of the range where you can start feeling like it's all believable. The late week deal is already getting going to our west d4-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ji said: i have never seen jaw dropping amounts like that for run after run after run where we ended up getting zero. This was as close to march 2001 as i have ever gotten Are our busts now 7 day threats that fizzle out? I can't believe how far technology has come! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 13 minutes ago, Ji said: i have never seen jaw dropping amounts like that for run after run after run where we ended up getting zero. This was as close to march 2001 as i have ever gotten Lol- u got problems. Diving in head first before we cross the d4 barrier is masochism. I'm starting to think deep down inside you get pleasure out of long range busts. At least you live in a area where it happens a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 This is silly. Yea most of the threats are in long range which is why we're talking about it here. And everyone knows it could bust and go poof on us. It happens. But know what else happens sometimes...it snows. Would you rather it look bad right now? Complaining about a good look because "it might bust" is just stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 Check out how strong the +NAO is on medium range models. I'm starting to this this Pacific pattern is more a tendency because it would be the 4th time it repeats versus the real thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 ICON is my new favorite model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 ICON is my new favorite model. Puts the ggem to shameSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 We need something from the gfs tonight. Even a positive tick better trend would doSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 6 minutes ago, Ji said: We need something from the gfs tonight. Even a positive tick better trend would do Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Doesn't look like you are going to get it Edit: Actually it did tick to the NW with the better snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 Doesn't look like you are going to get itI see a tick improvement Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 Just now, Ji said: I see a tick improvement Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Yup. Decent hit for areas South of DC. Step in the right direction when we needed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 It's a good run. Gives us cushion. Congrats dtSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 Just now, Ji said: I see a tick improvement Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Yea, smokes SoMD and eastern shore. I like that a lot. Gfs juiced up and we only need a 50 mile nw shift in 5 days. We can do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 Nice hit from DCA to EZF... 4 to 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 Funny if this were to play out lol. Good improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, Interstate said: Doesn't look like you are going to get it That was a big improvement honeslty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ji said: I see a tick improvement Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Yep... I updated my post. Give a good hit to places that have been hit all year... AKA southern MD and the Eastern Shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 and of course the CMC goes amped and by looking at the surface low... we are on the warm side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 My region improved all the way down to .10" from 8-19" few days ago lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 Icon solid hit, gfs close to a really good hit, CMC is a amped disaster. I'll toss the cmc no problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 GFS was good for everyone. The threat of mostly rain is real. Seeing the beaches and tidewater get nailed at this juncture is awesome. It wont end up like that with this set up. Well, I mean it could, but I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Icon solid hit, gfs close to a really good hit, CMC is a amped disaster. I'll toss the cmc no problem. I think this event is fairly likely to end up amped and inland because of the phase the MJO is in as well as the WAR being a problem with almost every system the last few winters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 GFS was good for everyone. The threat of mostly rain is real. Seeing the beaches and tidewater get nailed at this juncture is awesome. It wont end up like that with this set up. Well, I mean it could, but I doubt it.Was thinking same thing. This one shoukd actually trend north but we gotta be careful not too muchSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: Was thinking same thing. This one shoukd actually trend north but we gotta be careful not too much Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk My concern exactly. Either we get to pull out our shovels, or we all get a free car wash lol. No way it heads to the South as depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: Was thinking same thing. This one shoukd actually trend north but we gotta be careful not too much Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Maybe but SE tidewater has the hot hand this winter. So it can’t be dismissed. Different set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 Maybe but SE tidewater has the hot hand this winter. So it can’t be dismissed. Different set up. Yes...when Florida was frozen!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 D9 looks interesting Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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