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January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2


WinterWxLuvr

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7 minutes ago, Ji said:

i mean there was ensemble support. GEFS and EPS constantly had us in dark blue/purple colors

It was still way out in time though. We're inside of 7 days now and things still look good. Ops and ensembles are all showing the same thing and it's not a single event like the Dec head fake. 

I know it can all go poof and we're definitely not in the locked range but this upcoming period is at closer leads and looks to continue beyond the end of the ens runs. 

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4 minutes ago, Ji said:

thats why the GEFS weenie runs dont really excite me. they are all 10-15 days away

Again, a lot of good stuff is showing well inside of 10-15 days. I get the argument about long range being unstable but we're almost in the med range with 2 legit threats showing up. I get your pessimism but at least accept that we have 2 chances at snow that are NOT in the long range. 

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6 minutes ago, Interstate said:

I would say the rug pulled out from under us. The storm was still 7 days away when he models switched 

Exaclty, we never got into the believable range. It looked great for a few days but we never got inside of the range where you can start feeling like it's all believable. The late week deal is already getting going to our west d4-5. 

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4 minutes ago, Ji said:

i have never seen jaw dropping amounts like that for run after run after run where we ended up getting zero. This was as close to march 2001 as i have ever gotten

Are our busts now 7 day threats that fizzle out? I can't believe how far technology has come!

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13 minutes ago, Ji said:

i have never seen jaw dropping amounts like that for run after run after run where we ended up getting zero. This was as close to march 2001 as i have ever gotten

Lol- u got problems. Diving in head first before we cross the d4 barrier is masochism. I'm starting to think deep down inside you get pleasure out of long range busts. At least you live in a area where it happens a lot. 

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This is silly. Yea most of the threats are in long range which is why we're talking about it here. And everyone knows it could bust and go poof on us. It happens. But know what else happens sometimes...it snows. Would you rather it look bad right now?  Complaining about a good look because "it might bust" is just stupid. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Icon solid hit, gfs close to a really good hit, CMC is a amped disaster. I'll toss the cmc no problem.  

I think this event is fairly likely to end up amped and inland because of the phase the MJO is in as well as the WAR being a problem with almost every system the last few winters  

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GFS was good for everyone. The threat of mostly rain is real. Seeing the beaches and tidewater get nailed at this juncture is awesome. It wont end up like that with this set up. Well, I mean it could, but I doubt it.
Was thinking same thing. This one shoukd actually trend north but we gotta be careful not too much

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

Was thinking same thing. This one shoukd actually trend north but we gotta be careful not too much

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
 

My concern exactly. Either we get to pull out our shovels, or we all get a free car wash lol. No way it heads to the South as depicted. 

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

Was thinking same thing. This one shoukd actually trend north but we gotta be careful not too much

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
 

Maybe but SE tidewater has the hot hand this winter.  So it can’t be dismissed.  Different set up.  

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