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January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2


WinterWxLuvr

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11 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

The Friday deal looks like a frontal passage with a few rain/snow showers

Mostly noise honestly. I mean yea, it could end up being just that but if anything the run was more amplified @ h5 and would actually support more precip than other runs. Just didn't have a consolidated wave this run. In the big picture the run pretty much continues to support the same general idea we've been seeing a lot of lately. 

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The only time this year the gefs have been so bullish was the phantom amped up sjt failure.  At least the gefs are getting to this bullish result with realistic storm systems for the pattern.  If they were just as robust but showing miller As coming out of the gulf, it would be a different story, imo.  Nothing is a lock obviously but chances are higher than avg of a decent stretch. 

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Mostly noise honestly. I mean yea, it could end up being just that but if anything the run was more amplified @ h5 and would actually support more precip than other runs. Just didn't have a consolidated wave this run. In the big picture the run pretty much continues to support the same general idea we've been seeing a lot of lately. 

Your right. H5 looks sharper. I would of thought the surface would of looked differently.

It's crazy how the Euro and GFS has shifted spots over the last 24 hours.

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Just now, Chris78 said:

Your right. H5 looks sharper. I would of thought the surface would of looked differently.

It's crazy how the Euro and GFS has shifted spots over the last 24 hours.

We're dealing with a narrow stripe of precip on a boundary. No single op run is better than the next until we shave some time off of this. Any run that shows any snow is a win. That's all we can hope for. Even too amplified/rain is still a good sign unless everything joins that party and doesn't let go...lol

The next 48 hours aren't worth over analyzing. If things still look good as we get under 5 days then we're going to put every op under the microscope. lol. Long week inbound but a lucky distraction with the IVT. That will help us not focus so much on an event that is outside of op accuracy range. I pretty much guaranty the 18z GEFS is going to show another splattering of good hits for next Fri. 

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2 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

On Feb 6 let's see how much precip there has been , it all falls between 216-240 anyway, where it's been all Winter.

But that's not what you said.  Your description of the 18z run was flat out wrong...now, if your opinion is that it will be .2 or less, that's one thing.  It's not a bad hedge tbh but this does seem to be a different pattern than what we have experienced so far this season.

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10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I like the navgem's version of the wave. This would be a good hit. 

navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_24.png

 

18z gefs solid again too. If nothing else, this event has had the most good looks with the most runs in a row at med-long range showing snow than any other event. 

you keep saying this is the best look of the winter...you remember Dec 21-24 model runs...we were getting 30,41,28 inch etc model runs. I really felt like we were going to get a HECS dude...it felt like Jan 2016 for a while

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11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I like the navgem's version of the wave. This would be a good hit. 

navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_24.png

 

18z gefs solid again too. If nothing else, this event has had the most good looks with the most runs in a row at med-long range showing snow than any other event. 

The whole period looks promising. Each event will frustrate because we're dealing with fairly weak systems at h5 and mostly waves along frontal boundaries. Models will struggle to resolve those from any range and they aren't found to have some 250 mile win zone like a juiced up miller a running into a block. The chance of fail on each threat is high but the sheer number of chances we could get in this pattern is what's encouraging. Simple probability math is in our favor here. 

One thing I've noticed with these types of patterns over the years is from range the guidance often underestimates the cold. Then once inside 72 hours these waves tend to trend more amplified and north. That's was the general rule for many of these things in 2014 and 2015 and that one wave last February that started north then teased us then ended up north again. So I wouldn't mind if the feb 2/3 threat trended even more south in the next 48 hours considering it's likely to trend more amped at the end.  18z gefs definitely lost most of the over amped north members. That's good at this range imo. We're still a long ways from clarity though. Like you I'm rooting for a fluke from the IVT then we can turn to the next threat. 

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5 minutes ago, Ji said:

you keep saying this is the best look of the winter...you remember Dec 21-24 model runs...we were getting 30,41,28 inch etc model runs. I really felt like we were going to get a HECS dude...it felt like Jan 2016 for a while

Fake Juiced stj during Dec 21-24 runs. That's not a factor now 

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3 minutes ago, Ji said:

i mean there was ensemble support. GEFS and EPS constantly had us in dark blue/purple colors

Yeah, which was why it was especially sad when the rug got pulled from under us. Looked like the real look was there. I just like that the models show a good look while we're still in peak snow climo. That's all. 

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5 minutes ago, Ji said:

i mean there was ensemble support. GEFS and EPS constantly had us in dark blue/purple colors

I can't disagree. I feel like the GEFS has been consistently terrible this winter. It's shown significant snow totals that have never come close to fruition over and over again.

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Just now, osfan24 said:

I can't disagree. I feel like the GEFS has been consistently terrible this winter. It's shown significant snow totals that have never come close to fruition over and over again.

thats why the GEFS weenie runs dont really excite me. they are all 10-15 days away

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1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

Yeah, which was why it was especially sad when the rug got pulled from under us. Looked like the real look was there. I just like that the models show a good look while we're still in peak snow climo. That's all. 

I would say the rug pulled out from under us. The storm was still 7 days away when he models switched 

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1 minute ago, Interstate said:

I would say the rug pulled out from under us. The storm was still 7 days away when he models switched 

but there was talk about how the big ones are seen early. Actually, one run that gave us 30 inches had the actual storm starting 4 days later in the Gulf of Mexico. It was so hearbreaking

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