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January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2


WinterWxLuvr

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1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

I’m not a gambling man.... but would you risk losing this for something bigger? Or do you take that right now and walk??

There's only so much upside on this type of setup. We saw a number of them in 13-15. Progressve flow will keep everything moving quick. The last 2 euro runs are top end already imho. Surface temps leading in will limit things as well. 

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On 1/24/2018 at 6:24 PM, showmethesnow said:

If this was just 2 or 3 years ago with the old GFS I would say we have it right where we want it (to the SE by a 100 miles). Not so sure now because the new GFS just doesn't seem to have that SE bias to the extent it used to display.

We have to hope that the trend to the north and west is not finished.

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Walking the line is stressful too. Even though the euro looks good it's only 75 miles from a disaster. I do like the progression through. Just enough cold press over the top for a solid thump. I'm glad models have moved away from the more amplified N-S alignment. That stuff is ripe for precip to shut off before or quick after temps get right. Keep the low center south of us with that sweet sw-ne alignment and it's one of the classic ways to get a good event with progressive flow. 

The upside scenario is too dicey. You need amplification and a stronger low. It could still work of course but I'd much prefer NOT walking that kind of line. 

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

There's only so much upside on this type of setup. We saw a number of them in 13-15. Progressve flow will keep everything moving quick. The last 2 euro runs are top end already imho. Surface temps leading in will limit things as well. 

What is the current timing of this event?  Daughter's 6th B-day party is Saturday.  Would this a Sat or Friday evening event?

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Don’t know when I’ve seen a mean that high

There's an unusually high number of multiple hits on individual members. I haven't seen a look like this since the second half of Feb 2015. Tight spacing and active flow with repeating progressions. I could easily envision a snow thump then a rain event with reinforcing cold followed by another shot at snow. 

There's been 4-5 gefs runs and 2-3 eps runs in a row showing active precip events and mutiple shots at snow. Pretty kick ass if you ask me  

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18 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Haven't looked to deeply into it but .I think that is more so a function of the mean precip coming in quite a bit drier then previous runs for that period.

It's both. Less precip and less snowy solutions. We'll know in a few more days if it's a blip or a trend. Control run is a good hit though. I think what the euro op is spitting out is the top end type of solution for an event like this either way. Folks need to be realistic and not set the bar at a warning level event. That's unrealistic imho. 

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11 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Warning level event will be tough i think.

My bar is 2 inches . I think that's realistic. 

 

That's where i'm at too. I got 3.5" in Dec so I hope I can top that but I wont set a bar like that until 48-72 hours out with all guidance showing it. 

If I get 2" it's prob pretty likely that northern and western folks get more than doubt that. Every flip event I can remember the folks near Parrs and Winchester do much better than my yard. 

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with the exception of Dec 8, every event that we have tracked has fallen apart and given us the least possible....anything less than 2 inches by the end of next week will be a disaster but thats probably where we area headed. With that being said, we werent suppose to get anything till around feb 6 so this is bonus fail!

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:

with the exception of Dec 8, every event that we have tracked has fallen apart and given us the least possible....anything less than 2 inches by the end of next week will be a disaster but thats probably where we area headed

Winter trends don't last always, dude...just wait and see. Clearly heading into a different kind of pattern here...logic says...wait and see!

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3 minutes ago, Interstate said:

The only problem I see with this is most of it comes towards the end of the run... and we know how models have been flipping this year.

Considering were still 6-7 days away from being in a half decent regime it's like that by default. However, the gefs is lit up pretty solid d6-10 so more than half of that happens by d10. And all models look similar. It's still long range and we know to tread lightly but for right at this point in time, we haven't seen anything like this all winter. Nothing even close honeslty and it's holding strong run after run. The stj tease in December didn't last 4 suites. Comparing current guidance to anything we've seen this winter....nothing compares at all.... All we can do it watch and wait and hope for the best. 

Its safe to say chances for snowfall in the next 2 weeks are above normal. That's fair. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Considering were still 6-7 days away from being in a half decent regime it's like that by default. However, the gefs is lit up pretty solid d6-10 so more than half of that happens by d10. And all models look similar. It's still long range and we know to tread lightly but for right at this point in time, we haven't seen anything like this all winter. Nothing even close honeslty and it's holding strong run after run. The stj tease in December didn't last 4 suites. Comparing current guidance to anything we've seen this winter....nothing compares at all.... All we can do it watch and wait and hope for the best. 

Its safe to say chances for snowfall in the next 2 weeks are above normal. That's fair. 

I will give you that... but that run is bulls eye city.:unsure:

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