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January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2


WinterWxLuvr

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Overnight EPS made another very good move for our day 6/7 snow chances. Will use yesterdays 00Z run for better comparison of the changes we have seen instead of the 12Z which was in between both solutions.

Now I have said this time and time again so I am sure everyone is sick of hearing it by now. But the EPS has continually overplayed the dumping of energy into the Southwest in the longer ranges only to pull away from that idea as we near in time. And it is no different in this case. Below we have yesterdays 500 mb. Notice that the surge has a large initial surge towards the Southwest indicated by the troughing and the low height anomalies. In response we see heights building strongly on the east coast along with a surge of warm air. 

Jan26144hr.gif.32233c0b153afc4e03f484d10aadbf48.gif

 

Now compare the above 500 mb to the overnight run. Notice that the troughing is shallower as much of the energy is being directed eastward as opposed to the strong southerly component on the previous map. This in turn is creating weaker ridging on the east coast where we are not seeing the warm air surge northward nearly to the extent of the previous map. This will make it easier for the cold air to scour out these temps when it does arrive.

Jan27144hr.gif.12feaa73fa791b8bf869c5ebf66aa273.gif

 

Below we have yesterdays overnight run a day later. With the strong southerly component we had with the initial push this sets up a deep trough in the center of the country as well as strong higher heights in the east for the lead in to our storm. Now look at the height lines. They argue that the low pressure/wave will track to our North and west as the low will have room to intensify well before it reaches our region. This is really not a good look for our snow chances.

Jan26168hr.gif.a6f9976d8254c786b69bb8d7caf75ab5.gif

 

 

Here we have the overnight run of this same time period. Notice we have a shallower drop of the trough and correspondingly weaker heights on the east coast. Notice that the height lines have a more west to east component then the previous example. They argue that any low/wave will ride through or just to the south of our region as the low will not have the room to intensify until much nearer our region.

Jan27168hr.gif.715b0d81b7521ff747efa38f3c096d15.gif

 

Now here is the surface from yesterdays overnight run for the same time period as above. Notice the strong north/south component to the anomaly trough axis? This argues that our storm (top circle) will have a more northerly component on its track. One last thing, notice that we have low pressure anomalies extending far to the south. In this case, with the axis of low pressures it doesn't mean squat.

Jan26168hrPressures.gif.7cf5bc73e7b6240e36a3622247bdaefe.gif

 

 

Now here is the overnight run for the same time period. We now see a more west to east component on the axis of anomalies. This setup argues that we would see a more easterly track to our low (Top circle). Now back to the second circle in the deep south. Could we possible see a follow up to our initial low ride up from the south? It is starting to take on that look in my mind with the general setup and axis of low pressures. But first we have to see what the initial low does because that will be key on any possible follow up.

Jan27168hrPressures.gif.dd8aad8d39e73a7588df65d8aa9ff8b4.gif

 

To give you an idea what these changes at 500 mb mean for the temp profile leading into the storm. Below we have yesterdays run at 850 mb. Notice that the freezing line is all the way north into northern PA.

Jan26temps.gif.7ed714ba665bd91bbc893220d47d7352.gif

 

Now compare the above to what we have after those changes. The freezing line is now showing up around the PA/MD line. Quite a significant shift southward in just one day of runs.

Jan27temps.gif.d6c20ca272d678f6c9fe3cf03d2aaeee.gif

 

 

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Oh boy.....Ji's gonna be pissed.....He may have nothing to complain about from the overnights, which may force a smile to his face.  Dat's gonna hurt.

All joking aside, it is nice to see the biases/seasonal tendencies coming to light, as it give me some optimism that we may have something entering the middle range and might be able to view models with a little less skepticism.  Will be interesting to see how this turns out as we enter the next fun period.

 

 

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13 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Totally agree and I could easily  invision a 4-8" type event ....but a region wide 2-4" would appeal to many and it would get this party started. 

seeing how were a week ahead of schedule in the tracking dept....

yeah, this is a big deal to me.  Almost like bonus snow.

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Not much to add. Yesterday I said after the 12z runs it was a possible "ah ha" moment and I just wanted to see the look hold in future runs. Well 0z upped the anti. 

Just about 100% of guidance indicates multiple threats. A minor one from the vort pass and IVT early next week. Then two legit threats feb 2/3 and another in the day 10-15. The gefs is really living the 10-15. EPS is Luke warm in it but is trending better every run. It's still trying to dump too much trough west and ridge east past day 8 then adjusts. Its been the most consistent guidance bias all year so no reason not to assume it continues. I don't mind guidance having bias as long as it's a consistent bias we can adjust for. 

The best part of all this is things are really just getting going. Day 15 on all guidance leaves us in a good place going forward. The epo ridge is building on all guidance. It's 100%. But this time the lower heights want to center to our north not over us or to the south. That's important because minus blocking things will be progressive and generally track more west to east than south to north. If the boundary is blasted to Florida we're probably just cold and dry. We saw that. We need the boundary to be near us then take our chances that one or two of those waves take a favorable track.  Yes that opens the door to some rain but we have to dance with the devil to win in this type pattern.   If this becomes the stable 3 week + look it appears to be simple probabilities are in our favor that one or more waves manage a flush hit.  As we head into February our chances go up. These waves tend to become more juiced as the potential  baroclinicity increases. 

To summarize I'm very pleased with how things look now. The flip back came faster then we hoped. The epo driven pattern seems more favorable for precip chances this go around. And long range indicators and the timing of this as well as the mjo wave propagating now hints this could line up perfectly to ride out right into march and spring. I'm fairly confident we see more snow and at least one respectable event before the season is over. 

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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Seems a little too early to me, but it clearly says experimental and the potential is there.   Maybe the Euro coming around made them go bold.

lwx agrees

Another cold front is expected to pass through the area Thursday
into Friday. Low pressure may develop along the boundary as
well...and depending on the timing of the frontal passage and
track of the low...there could be a period of snow that develops
over our area. Certainty remains very low this far out.
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So GFS goes from an amped up cutter at 12z yesterday to a weak frontal passage at 12z today for the Friday/Saturday storm. Funny how everyone was saying that this is what it's tendency was in the long range. Good times. Still lots of time. 

 

And the CMC is pretty much the same only it doesn't even change us over to snow...

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7 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

So GFS goes from an amped up cutter at 12z yesterday to a weak frontal passage at 12z today. Funny how everyone was saying that this is what it did in the medium range. Good times. Still lots of time. 

Cmc went the opposite and is way amped. Not even close to snow for the area.

Models have all flipped to the opposite of what each one was showing yesterday.  

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Right or wrong....I can't remember the last time the gefs spit out so many consecutive weenie runs. 12z might even be the best of the bunch. Worst case scenario of the 20 memebers is 2" but the vast majority are pretty big. 

I scanned through the members and most of the snow solutions are legit and not jacked up west tracks that shouldn't snow but the low reolsution makes it look better than it is. The whole run looked really good for above normal chances at a respectable storm or 2. 

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1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

Couple of decent hits. Interesting seeing the GFS less amped, but a decent bit of the ensemble members being very amped. Pretty sure that's a good thing though.

gefs_snow_ens_ma_30.thumb.png.52cf0f54953c649ad2974a55e03b039b.png

 

Kinda seems like the GFS is jumping around a little more with this pattern. Ensembles aren't playing follow the operational either it seems. A good spread overall. 

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2 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Wow! Boom...lol

 

How does the GEFS look for next Friday/Saturday?

Equal spread of solid hits, acceptable, and disasters. Solid majority support at least some accum snow so the true disasters are a small minority. 

0z eps was supportive of the op run in general but the majority were smaller events. Next week's deal is going to stress people out. It's going to be a narrow band of sig snow but it's going to move around a lot over the coming days. Odds seem to favor an event here but how much and where will take at least 3-4 days to feel comfortable guessing who wins and loses. Looks like a repeating pattern beyond so there will be plenty of optimism even if the late week deal underperforms. 

I hope everyone has proper expectations. A warning criteria event isnt going to come easy or be likely. Flip events rarely go big after the changeover. People need to be reasonable or there's going to be a lot of hurt feelings for dumb reasons. 

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