Amped Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 If we could end the string of 1030mb+ highs over Georgia, that'd be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 18z definitely ticked southeast. I think the Euro being so progressive is a red flag for the GFS being so amped. If the seasonal trend of the models overamping systems continues maybe this can trend in a good way for us. Or just take the 12z cmc and call it a day. Haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 It would be totally awesome if parts or all of the region could score a few inches through next weekend. If not, just remember this is the very beginning of the pattern change. The fact that we are even in the game for frozen at this point is more than we could have hoped for a week ago. The really good period as modeled begins around the 10th or so, but in reality its more like mid month where the pattern should really become more favorable for the MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: It would be totally awesome if parts or all of the region could score a few inches through next weekend. If not, just remember this is the very beginning of the pattern change. The fact that we are even in the game for frozen at this point is more than we could have hoped for a week ago. The really good period as modeled begins around the 10th or so, but in reality its more like mid month where the pattern should really become more favorable for the MA. I agree with this. This is kind of the transition as the epo tanks again and begins the process of dumping cold into the Conus. It happened late novomver early December too only now we can score during the build up because of better climo. I think the peak of the cold is after feb 10. And it could last into the first half of march. If we can get some storms to build heights up into the nao domain and give some help there it could turn really good. If not we roll with rooting for waves. But I'm happy with the progression I'm seeing now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 The GFS op track is further west than every esemble member. I would guess there's some good hits in there with raining changing to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 Was out all day and just caught up with the 12z and 18z ens. Oh man, what a great day in ensemble land. No doubt the strongest signal for snowfall in our area over the next 2 weeks all season. Many different ways to get it done. Plenty of action inbound. Get your sleep this weekend cuz it's going to be busy around here for the next 2-3 or maybe even 4-5 weeks. Even though it's a high risk pattern, the sheer number of ensembles and ops that get it done is pretty jaw dropping. With just a couple lucky breaks we may remember and talk about this upcoming period for years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 Was out all day and just caught up with the 12z and 18z ens. Oh man, what a great day in ensemble land. No doubt the strongest signal for snowfall in our area over the next 2 weeks. Many different ways to get it done. Plenty of action inbound. Get your sleep this weekend cuz it's going to be busy around here for the next 2-3 or maybe even 4-5 weeks. Even though it's a high risk pattern, the sheer number of ensembles and ops that get it done is pretty jaw dropping. With just a couple lucky breaks we may remember and talk about this upcoming period for years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Was out all day and just caught up with the 12z and 18z ens. Oh man, what a great day in ensemble land. No doubt the strongest signal for snowfall in our area over the next 2 weeks. Many different ways to get it done. Plenty of action inbound. Get your sleep this weekend cuz it's going to be busy around here for the next 2-3 or maybe even 4-5 weeks. Even though it's a high risk pattern, the sheer number of ensembles and ops that get it done is pretty jaw dropping. With just a couple lucky breaks we may remember and talk about this upcoming period for years. That's a pretty impressive statement you said, especially coming from you. I sure hope so. I think we all should appreciate the models showing this when remembering the last time the GEFS showed a mid-long range this good was back when all the ensembles/operational models had that fake juiced stj that fizzled after a couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 1 minute ago, anotherman said: This sums it up well. Check out how many ens members have multiple events. More than a few have 3 events. Impressive for long leads. Gefs no different. If we can keep an active gradient pattern going for the next 5 weeks like ens and weekly guidance is showing we can make up some lost ground. Not a big storm pattern but I'd take a string of light and mod events no problem. Heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Was out all day and just caught up with the 12z and 18z ens. Oh man, what a great day in ensemble land. No doubt the strongest signal for snowfall in our area over the next 2 weeks. Many different ways to get it done. Plenty of action inbound. Get your sleep this weekend cuz it's going to be busy around here for the next 2-3 or maybe even 4-5 weeks. Even though it's a high risk pattern, the sheer number of ensembles and ops that get it done is pretty jaw dropping. With just a couple lucky breaks we may remember and talk about this upcoming period for years. Reminds one of 13-14 doesn't it? And we are just getting started with this pattern change, lol. Should be some really fun tracking times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, Cobalt said: That's a pretty impressive statement you said, especially coming from you. I sure hope so. I think we all should appreciate the models showing this when remembering the last time the GEFS showed a mid-long range this good was back when all the ensembles/operational models had that fake juiced stj that fizzled after a couple days. This looks like the real deal this time. We actully have room to fail. Lol. I'm bullish becuase this is the front side of what looks like a prolonged similar pattern. Weeklies have done a really good job this year and the cfs looks good through early march just like the eps. Not a good big storm or retention pattern but I'm not picky. I just like watching it fall, measuring/shoveling, and then it can melt before it piles up again. Lol. That sounds pretty fun actually.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 looks like two phased. Most seem a tad NW of OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Was out all day and just caught up with the 12z and 18z ens. Oh man, what a great day in ensemble land. No doubt the strongest signal for snowfall in our area over the next 2 weeks. Many different ways to get it done. Plenty of action inbound. Get your sleep this weekend cuz it's going to be busy around here for the next 2-3 or maybe even 4-5 weeks. Even though it's a high risk pattern, the sheer number of ensembles and ops that get it done is pretty jaw dropping. With just a couple lucky breaks we may remember and talk about this upcoming period for years. That's how I felt when I saw the 12z gefs and EPS. If we score multiple hits in the coming weeks today will be the day I remember first getting "that feeling" from the guidance. I want I see it hold for a while but the 18z gefs is just as weenie as the 12z As you said this is high risk. We don't have some perfect Rex block licking cold in. We're at the mercy of timing up the boundary and waves. But I like the location of the height centers this time. They look a lot like some of those examples of winning epo patterns of the past I posted. The core of the cold seems to want to align to our north this time not driving arctic highs into the south. If we get a 3-5 week period like what the guidance seems to be indicating and don't manage some decent snow then I say it's time to sacrifice a weenie to the snow gods because we obviously offended them somehow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, WestminsterSnowCapitalMA said: looks like two phased. Most seem a tad NW of OP I thought the gefs left the door open there too. A few amped up solutions. One gives me 12" lol. But we started a new thread for that storm that's why no one is talking about it here anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I thought the gefs left the door open there too. A few amped up solutions. One gives me 12" lol. But we started a new thread for that storm that's why no one is talking about it here anymore. doh! makes sense lol. ive never actually been to cascade lake, only ever heard about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 58 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Reminds one of 13-14 doesn't it? And we are just getting started with this pattern change, lol. Should be some really fun tracking times ahead. Yea, it really does. Of course expecting the ease and frequency of events like 13-14 is ripe for disappointment but you just can't help but be encouraged right now. My bullish post wasn't just about the next couple opportunities because we could easily fail. It was more about the entire next month. All guidance looks the same. Practically carbon copies across the board. The latest cfs for Feb sums it up. Complete a agreement with this general look. We can do ok with this longwave pattern: I would like to somehow pull off climo this year. It's a big number left to go for my yard (16"). From how it looks right now, no shutout pattern is being even hinted at through the first week of March. We'll most likely have threats on the radar for weeks. Even if we don't pull off the coastal/ivt next week or the big front a few days after, the future looks bright. I hope this sub is nothing but high fives in Feb. It's been a disaster around here the last month. We need to get out of the rut and stop the bad vibes and rampant pessimism. It's been tiresome and that's saying it very nicely. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 DT Wxrisk did a great analysis like always. I'm already starting to like him, even though i only watched 2 of his videos so far. He never overhypes things and gives honest views. What he's seeing is that both El Nino and Nina climo represent a good ol' tide pod blue look over the east coast of the subforum. What i'm confused is whether that leads to a dry moistureless pattern or a active snowy pattern. Phase 8 and Phase 1 of MJO rotation are conducive for snowstorms in the eastern U.S mainly starting around Mid-Feb, but there will be a few downsides before. The euro does have a favored pattern towards more of an ice pattern for the coast (VA, MD, Del, NJ and E PA) and more of a snow pattern farther west week 3. Mainly a dry pattern for the Lakes/Ohio Valley part of the subforum look, especially for the plains where arcticgeddon round 2 takes place. This could be bad for the drought going on there in the plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 1 hour ago, WeathermanB said: DT Wxrisk did a great analysis like always. I'm already starting to like him, even though i only watched 2 of his videos so far. He never overhypes things and gives honest views. What he's seeing is that both El Nino and Nina climo represent a good ol' tide pod blue look over the east coast of the subforum. What i'm confused is whether that leads to a dry moistureless pattern or a active snowy pattern. Phase 8 and Phase 1 of MJO rotation are conducive for snowstorms in the eastern U.S mainly starting around Mid-Feb, but there will be a few downsides before. The euro does have a favored pattern towards more of an ice pattern for the coast (VA, MD, Del, NJ and E PA) and more of a snow pattern farther west week 3. Mainly a dry pattern for the Lakes/Ohio Valley part of the subforum look, especially for the plains where arcticgeddon round 2 takes place. This could be bad for the drought going on there in the plains. The referenced party is a great discusser of weather but a poor predictor of it. The "never overhyping" is simply incorrect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 The 18z gefs meteogram is pretty impressive. 100% chance of at least a trace and 95% chance of 2" or more over the next 16 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The 18z gefs meteogram is pretty impressive. 100% chance of at least a trace and 95% chance of 2" or more over the next 16 days. Meh. E1 for the win. Just kidding..lol I'm starting to get pumped for the upcoming pattern. Hopefully it delivers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 GFS coming in less amped again for next weekend...should be a nice hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, LP08 said: GFS coming in less amped again for next weekend...should be a nice hit No kidding. Much weaker Still an okay hit. 1-2" for DC. Canadian looks good (as it always does) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 This will become a non event soon...frontal passage like euroSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 Gfs/cmc/icon all look good enough for Friday. Right in the pocket with ens spread and all drop accum snow. Gfs backing off on the amp factor is nice. That's probably the biggest issue. Nice runs tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 Just now, Cobalt said: No kidding. Much weaker Still an okay hit. 1-2" for DC. Canadian looks good (as it always does) Yeah just kinda fizzled...the surface low goes south of the region just with considerable less umph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Gfs/cmc/icon all look good enough for Friday. Right in the pocket with ens spread and all drop accum snow. Gfs backing off on the amp factor is nice. That's probably the biggest issue. Nice runs tonight. yeah, less amped, less cutting. Can you PM Ji and let him know its ok.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 Just now, Ji said: This will become a non event soon...frontal passage like euro Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Could be but I doubt it. Euro ens look very good. Much better than the op. This one has legs. It's a very strong front with gulf moisture getting pumped in by the departing high off the atl coast. This isn't going to be a dry frontal passage. I'm confident saying that. Could be all rain though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: yeah, less amped, less cutting. Can you PM Ji and let him know its ok.... No. He's never ok with an op not showing a major hit 4 times a day for 7 straight days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: No. He's never ok with an op not showing a major hit 4 times a day for 7 straight days. well your state of the union address the other day lasted for like 2 posts w/ him.....good grief, i pitty his wife Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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