stormtracker Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Guess I should have waited for the next panel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 yes please = 12z GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GFS still smokes us pretty good but honestly, I don't like that progression at all. It could work but it introduces a lot of all rain risk into the equation. With rain? That looks like an all rain or nearly all rain solution to me. I don’t buy the dusting on the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Just now, Interstate said: Keeps driving the heaviest snow west with each run... it has gone from central Frederick county to central Ohio in the last three runs Yea, don't get me wrong... I do NOT like that type of progression at all. Let's get back to simple boundary/wave...lol. We have a week to go and have seen many storms trend flatter/weaker as leads close so maybe this goes the same way. Might be a good week to start drinking again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'd much prefer the simple wave idea... strong storm + amp = trouble. Let me dream Bob just let me dream! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 I'm staying up for the 12z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 You know something isn't right when the GFS shows a cutter producing snow extending to the shores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: With rain? That looks like an all rain or nearly all rain solution to me. I don’t buy the dusting on the backside. I can't recall a snow set-up for us where the LP goes west thru PA, Albany, to Maine where we had significant backside snow. WAR is flexing on the GFS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Runs that get the final wave (which likely will be the most amplified one) south of us have a series of strung out waves along the front as it continues east. The new gfs and other runs that cut west have a lead weak wave then too much space allowing the trailing wave to begin to amplify way too soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 So what we have so far is. GFS - Super amped and cuts CMC- Nice wave that runs the boundary Euro- Frontal Passage with hardly nothing Am I missing anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 3 minutes ago, Interstate said: So what we have so far is. GFS - Super amped and cuts CMC- Nice wave that runs the boundary Euro- Frontal Passage with hardly nothing Am I missing anything? Yes, 85 ensemble members that show every combination in between and more. lol. Ops are only as good as a single ens member at this lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Looks like there are three storms coming. PV coming down on the third. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Runs that get the final wave (which likely will be the most amplified one) south of us have a series of strung out waves along the front as it continues east. The new gfs and other runs that cut west have a lead weak wave then too much space allowing the trailing wave to begin to amplify way too soon. Quoting for reference for when the models begin to sort this out. Rooting for the series of strung out wave scenarios to show an uptick on the various ensembles over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yes, 85 ensemble members that show every combination in between and more. lol. Ops are only as good as a single ens member at this lead. yea, 5 days out, so can't expect much unity, but still nice to have some threats to track after one more welcomed nice weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 UKMET is pretty beast. I don't have access to the 500mb after 72 hours but at 72 hours, you can see a trailing northern stream vort that presumably produce some interaction with the departing low. Precip. EDIT: This is last night's run but i'm stubbornly refusing to delete this. Baseline for today's run, I suppose. 11 minutes ago, Interstate said: So what we have so far is. GFS - Super amped and cuts CMC- Nice wave that runs the boundary Euro- Frontal Passage with hardly nothing Am I missing anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Something to watch for...the GFS has been consistently over-amplifying in the medium-range, only to see it devolve into a shredded mess in the short-range. Here we are again with the GFS cranking a 970mb into Maine. I'm leaning less amped and more sheared until proven otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 We take the 00z UKIE for Monday-Mon Night from last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 14 minutes ago, yoda said: yes please = 12z GGEM do we take and run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Just now, Round Hill WX said: Something to watch for...the GFS has been consistently over-amplifying in the medium-range, only to see it devolve into a shredded mess in the short-range. Here we are again with the GFS cranking a 970mb into Maine. I'm leaning less amped and more sheared until proven otherwise. Yep great point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: We take the 00z UKIE for Monday-Mon Night from last night Where are we taking it to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 1 minute ago, mappy said: do we take and run? Yes I think its a great run for all us and even our NW friends get in on the action Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 2 minutes ago, yoda said: We take the 00z UKIE for Monday-Mon Night from last night Temps? It’s a very different solution from everything else. Ji’s ukie rule might be in effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 2 minutes ago, mappy said: do we take and run? Meh, it's kind of on the light side.....I think we need at least twice that to get anyone interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 3 minutes ago, mappy said: Do we take and run the CMC? do we take and run? It is the first time we have been "NAM'ed" in awhile. It also fits our right in with our kind of storm... the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 2 minutes ago, Round Hill WX said: Something to watch for...the GFS has been consistently over-amplifying in the medium-range, only to see it devolve into a shredded mess in the short-range. Here we are again with the GFS cranking a 970mb into Maine. I'm leaning less amped and more sheared until proven otherwise. I was going to post the same thing. Most years we would want it south of us because of the dreaded north shift . But this year has been different. It may not be a bad thing that it's amped 7 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 3 minutes ago, MountainGeek said: Meh, it's kind of on the light side.....I think we need at least twice that to get anyone interested. That's especially the case at that range imo. eta: If the ensemble means show that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Hours 240-300 on the GFS are a perfect example of how truncation screws up the dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Waiting on temps... 12z UKIE at hr 72 QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 And ukie looks pretty loaded for next weekend from what an extrapolated 144hr plot can indicate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: And ukie looks pretty loaded for next weekend from what an extrapolated 144hr plot can indicate. Doesn't it seem to have an over-amped bias this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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