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January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2

WinterWxLuvr

By WinterWxLuvr,
in Mid Atlantic

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted
Way out there on the gefs so obviously taken with a huge grain of salt.  Would be nice to evolve into a pattern with some -NAO help.
Just for conversations sake....-AO/EPO/NAO  +PNA  Vortex heading toward SE Can and heights lowering in the 50/50 region.
 
gfs-ens_z500a_namer_65.thumb.png.783ca4bda9223fa77d78f6228179c04c.png
 
Setting up for the Great Valentine's Day storm 2018! Or the great heartbreak, one or the other. I actually like the period between the 10th-16th and have for several days now. Still some key transitional systems to watch before that time obviously.
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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted

Looking at the overnight runs of the GFS and the Euro suites and I thought there was a lot to like. Just a couple of quick thoughts on that.

IMO chances of seeing more then a dusting to an inch for the general area for the day four storm are low at this point. Direct impacts from a coastal low are slim and the inverted trough is a very fickle feature to nail down (precip totals/location) beyond 48 hours or so. So let's revisit that possibility later tomorrow into Sunday. I will mention that the ensembles have cooled a touch on the idea of any meaningful inverted trough actually even setting up but again lets see where we stand later on that. Probably nothing but something to at least keep an eye on with future runs. The overnight EPS actually now has a small camp (5 members) that develop the low in the southeast and track it where it exits land at OBX or just north. These 5 members are now responsible for a good portion of the snow fall means for our area on the EPS ensembles unlike previous runs where the inverted trough was producing the snow. 

Not worth breaking down the day 7/8 storm at this point except to say that we saw improvements in regards to that as well. The ensembles (GEFS, EPS) both show the boundary setting up farther south/east as the precip moves through. At this point the battle ground is setting up through our region and any adjustments N or S will have a very meaningful impact through the region between winners and losers. At this point the upside potential is probably of the 4-8, 5-10 variety. But again we are still 7+ days out so lets see where we are 2/3 days down the road.

Generally I really liked the changes I saw at 500 mb through the extended, especially on the GEFS. Noted a couple of days ago that the models were probably once again overdoing the Southwest trough/energy. This in turn was bumping up the SE ridging which was pushing the boundary, that the storms run, northward. Last nights GEFS run made a very significant move away from that. In response we now see far less SE ridging and the mean boundary is now setting up farther south below our region. Needless to say this extra real estate means better odds of us being on the winning side as the boundary moves back and forth as storms run through our region. One other thing of note on the GEFS is that we are seeing ridging building into Greenland at the end of the run. 

We also saw improvements with the EPS at 500 mb in regards to the SW trough/energy though nowhere near to the extent as the GEFS. But the EPS has been slow to the game quite often in this regards so hopefully we see continue improvements over future runs. 

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
54 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Looking at the overnight runs of the GFS and the Euro suites and I thought there was a lot to like. Just a couple of quick thoughts on that.

IMO chances of seeing more then a dusting to an inch for the general area for the day four storm are low at this point. Direct impacts from a coastal low are slim and the inverted trough is a very fickle feature to nail down (precip totals/location) beyond 48 hours or so. So let's revisit that possibility later tomorrow into Sunday. I will mention that the ensembles have cooled a touch on the idea of any meaningful inverted trough actually even setting up but again lets see where we stand later on that. Probably nothing but something to at least keep an eye on with future runs. The overnight EPS actually now has a small camp (5 members) that develop the low in the southeast and track it where it exits land at OBX or just north. These 5 members are now responsible for a good portion of the snow fall means for our area on the EPS ensembles unlike previous runs where the inverted trough was producing the snow. 

Not worth breaking down the day 7/8 storm at this point except to say that we saw improvements in regards to that as well. The ensembles (GEFS, EPS) both show the boundary setting up farther south/east as the precip moves through. At this point the battle ground is setting up through our region and any adjustments N or S will have a very meaningful impact through the region between winners and losers. At this point the upside potential is probably of the 4-8, 5-10 variety. But again we are still 7+ days out so lets see where we are 2/3 days down the road.

Generally I really liked the changes I saw at 500 mb through the extended, especially on the GEFS. Noted a couple of days ago that the models were probably once again overdoing the Southwest trough/energy. This in turn was bumping up the SE ridging which was pushing the boundary, that the storms run, northward. Last nights GEFS run made a very significant move away from that. In response we now see far less SE ridging and the mean boundary is now setting up farther south below our region. Needless to say this extra real estate means better odds of us being on the winning side as the boundary moves back and forth as storms run through our region. One other thing of note on the GEFS is that we are seeing ridging building into Greenland at the end of the run. 

We also saw improvements with the EPS at 500 mb in regards to the SW trough/energy though nowhere near to the extent as the GEFS. But the EPS has been slow to the game quite often in this regards so hopefully we see continue improvements over future runs. 

Nice to see the eastern US ridging become more muted in recent runs. Also nice to see towards the end of the last few runs a PNA ridge develop in addition to the EPO. And yes, the GEFS looks like it wants to add in at least a weak -AO/NAO combo as well, which seems to influence the trop PV to become a bit further displaced southward.

Remember your suppression concerns? :P 

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, mappy said:

Monday/Tuesday thing? WBAL mentioned it again this AM. 

Yes. As showme said, I think this is most likely nothing or perhaps a dusting-1” thing at best. IF there’s an IVT somewhere, a small area could jackpot, but they are very fickle beasts.

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Nice to see the eastern US ridging become more muted in recent runs. Also nice to see towards the end of the last few runs a PNA ridge develop in addition to the EPO. And yes, the GEFS looks like it wants to add in at least a weak -AO/NAO combo as well, which seems to influence the trop PV to become a bit further displaced southward.

Remember your suppression concerns? :P 

Decided not to mention that because I thought I would leave my post positive and not bring up that the GEFS was starting to shift the PV southward. Guess the cat's out of the bag now thanks to someone. :lol: 

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mappy

mappy

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yes. As showme said, I think this is most likely nothing or perhaps a dusting-1” thing at best. IF there’s an IVT somewhere, a small area could jackpot, but they are very fickle beasts.

Cool, thanks. I haven't been paying much attention these days. 

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North Balti Zen

North Balti Zen

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Decided not to mention that because I thought I would leave my post positive and not bring up that the GEFS was starting to shift the PV southward. Guess the cat's out of the bag now thanks to someone. :lol: 

IF we go cold and dry again that Stormy guy is gonna birth a cow.

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clskinsfan

clskinsfan

Posted
Posted
18 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

A little surprised but the EPS has the IVT on most of the solutions. Everywhere from south of us to far north of us. Might have more to it than I first thought. 

Interesting that the GFS was the first model to pick up on the little follow up chance. It saw it on the early Wednesday runs as a small follow up wave after the frontal passage. If it ends up verifying it is a big win for the GFS at range.

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted

Thought I would show the difference that we saw with the overnight GEFS run in regards to the SW troughing and why it has an impact for our region.

Below we have yesterdays 12Z run. It is the 5 day 500 mb mean at day 14. Notice the distinct troughing we have extending into the SW? (Follow the elongated low pressure anomalies from the pv down towards the SW) This look is one of surges coming out of Canada focusing much of their energy into the SW. In response to this troughing we see the Western Ridging displaced into the Pacific Ocean as well as a bump up of the SE ridging and heights in the east. Also notice the 558 line for future reference.

5a6b2fed736ae_12ZGEFS500mb.gif.666555798b855f2a51b238b692610d42.gif

 

Now this was the overnight run of the GEFS. Notice that the SW troughing is much weaker and we no longer see the low pressure anomalies running down towards it. This shows that we are no longer seeing major surges directed towards the SW but more so southeasterly/easterly. In response to this weaker SW trough we are seeing the western ridging shifted farther east as well as a dampening down of the SE ridging and the higher heights in the east. Now notice the location of the 558 mb line compared to the previous map. In the previous map we saw it in southern PA but now we see it located running through southern MD, a shift of roughly a hundred miles southward. What this shows is that we are getting better southward placement in the east with the cold through this period.

 

5a6b2fea0841c_00ZGEFS500mb.gif.82d4190263a419b0bb37e32e3b2e2e69.gif

 

Here's yesterdays 5 day temp mean at 850 mb. Now compare to the next map which is the 00Z run.

5a6b2fef8051f_12ZGEFStemps.thumb.gif.74530a4bb4ca18ddf3da46b8db2da681.gif

 

Notice that we are seeing a much better temp profile for our region for snow chances.

5a6b2fec15b30_00ZGEFStemps.thumb.gif.692d2befb4da92d70de3bee7c0d3eda9.gif

 

 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

Good post @showmethesnow. To add a little, both the GEFS and EPS have trended colder in the d10-15 range so built into the spread is less ridging/roasting and more depth to the cold behind fronts. By default this increases chances because the precip pattern looks active. 

The 2nd/3rd window is really only the beginning. We're super focused on it because the GFS has been teasing the crap out of us but it's a high risk setup and could break in any direction. The good thing is that potential event is just the beginning of a longer term regime change. One way or another I would say that it we'll most likely put some snow on the ground during weeks 2-3. How it happens and how much can be discussed as discrete windows present themselves. 

We've had some bad breaks this winter. Oddly, longitude played a bigger role than latitude. That doesn't look to be the case anymore. At least not missing to the east anyways. The bigger risk will be missing to the west (our western brethren love this part of my post. lol). But latitude is certainly going to be in play too. As long as we don't have widely spaced chances I think our region's chances of jumping into double digit annual totals within the next 2-3 weeks is pretty good. It may not happy all pretty with cold powder but the whole thing has the feel of the tide turning in our favor to at least not be on the outside looking in anymore. 

 

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Yeoman

Yeoman

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:
8 hours ago, poolz1 said:
Way out there on the gefs so obviously taken with a huge grain of salt.  Would be nice to evolve into a pattern with some -NAO help.
Just for conversations sake....-AO/EPO/NAO  +PNA  Vortex heading toward SE Can and heights lowering in the 50/50 region.
 
gfs-ens_z500a_namer_65.thumb.png.783ca4bda9223fa77d78f6228179c04c.png
 

Setting up for the Great Valentine's Day storm 2018! Or the great heartbreak, one or the other. I actually like the period between the 10th-16th and have for several days now. Still some key transitional systems to watch before that time obviously.

I like that period every year

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

I like that period every year

That's another reason why I feel pretty good for the next 2-3 weeks (probably longer). We're entering an active period that isn't going to be warm day in day out and it's happening pretty much in our prime window. Other than everything, nothing can really go wrong....but even if a few things go wrong we can still manage to not strike out and enter the pit of despair. 

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