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January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2


WinterWxLuvr

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16 hours ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Today's off-the chart mjo ensemble does look promising for phase 8 in the long range.

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Yeah. I saw that. If it is accurate there is no way we dont go into phase 8 and 1 in February. That is about as as good as it gets for a Februrary MJO forecast. Of course the MJO forecast has performed horridly so far this winter.

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28 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, looks good again. Much more amplified than the euro. Which seems backwards lately.  All we can do is hug the gfs until the euro caves right? lol

Well, happy hour delivers again..tricks us into staying up for 0z and we know how it goes.  In all seriousness, I'm still hanging in their for a d4 miracle, but this 180 hour threat is probably all we've got in the next 8-14 days

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Weeklies look fine again. Pretty much the same general pattern we are seeing the first week of Feb holding on for 4 weeks. First week of March probably looks the best of the bunch but overall it's a roller coaster progressive pattern with a +PNA/-EPO right up until the end when it breaks down. Not an eye popping type of winter pattern but far better than anything we've been experiencing the last 2 weeks. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Weeklies look fine again. Pretty much the same general pattern we are seeing the first week of Feb holding on for 4 weeks. First week of March probably looks the best of the bunch but overall it's a roller coaster progressive pattern with a +PNA/-EPO right up until the end when it breaks down. Not an eye popping type of winter pattern but far better than anything we've been experiencing the last 2 weeks. 

Best look since the late December juiced stj fiasco. As long as we are fighting between ptype rather than precip... I'm sold on this look. 

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6 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

GEFS plenty better for NW parts of this forum with the upcoming 8-9 day window. 

Everyone needs to understand and accept  that we are in a very dry pattern. I tried to introduce this to this board 3 weeks ago. The causes are beyond anything I have witnessed. Last year it ended in April.

Last winter I received 4.5 inches of snow in in a dry pattern

In January of 96, I received 33 inches of snow and 9.36 inches of rain and melted snow. 3 times normal. A wet pattern relates to snowfall  , the long range offers some hope. but, not a lot.

The experts on this board will hopefully give us a heads up regarding when this abnormally dry pattern will break. 

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6 minutes ago, stormy said:

Everyone needs to understand and accept  that we are in a very dry pattern. I tried to introduce this to this board 3 weeks ago. The causes are beyond anything I have witnessed. Last year it ended in April.

Last winter I received 4.5 inches of snow in in a dry pattern

In January of 96, I received 33 inches of snow and 9.36 inches of rain and melted snow. 3 times normal. A wet pattern relates to snowfall  , the long range offers some hope. but, not a lot.

The experts on this board will hopefully give us a heads up regarding when this abnormally dry pattern will break. 

What do you think we should do about it? Rain dance?

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42 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Weeklies look fine again. Pretty much the same general pattern we are seeing the first week of Feb holding on for 4 weeks. First week of March probably looks the best of the bunch but overall it's a roller coaster progressive pattern with a +PNA/-EPO right up until the end when it breaks down. Not an eye popping type of winter pattern but far better than anything we've been experiencing the last 2 weeks. 

To me it was an ok look then a very good look for a couple weeks before it breaks down right at the end.  We should luck our way into at least one respectable snow if that's how we roll. 

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

To me it was an ok look then a very good look for a couple weeks before it breaks down right at the end.  We should luck our way into at least one respectable snow if that's how we roll. 

The advertised pattern looks decent enough and should offer ample precip chances. February is a snow month. It likes to snow in Feb. And early March lately. It will probably rain plenty, but there should also be a few snow events mixed in. Probably not a good pattern for those who want a big storm or a 3-6" snowstorm that sticks around for a week. Mid Feb into the first week of March may be the best period if the weeklies are to be believed. Not much skill though beyond EPS day 15 + a week.

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19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

To me it was an ok look then a very good look for a couple weeks before it breaks down right at the end.  We should luck our way into at least one respectable snow if that's how we roll. 

Yea, the broad conus trough look late Feb into early March is pretty good. Also perfect timing with largest bn temp departures hitting when we need it the most. It's been a pretty boring and disappointing 5 weeks since the early Dec event. Would be nice if something breaks our way. Maybe the ivt next week works out and sets the tone. 

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18 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

The advertised pattern looks decent enough and should offer ample precip chances. February is a snow month. It likes to snow in Feb. And early March lately. It will probably rain plenty, but there should also be a few snow events mixed in. Probably not a good pattern for those who want a big storm or a 3-6" snowstorm that sticks around for a week. Mid Feb into the first week of March may be the best period if the weeklies are to be believed. Not much skill though beyond EPS day 15 + a week.

I'm hoping we can pull off mutiple events and always have something trackable on the radar. Agree that a big storm seems pretty unlikely but with a battleground/gradient look it's possible to get a 6-12" event without a well developed coastal. Something like a 6-8 hour period of mod snow would feel like massive event considering it's been 2 years since the last time we saw heavy rates like that  lol

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Interesting, seems the MJO amplitude being forecasted may not really be an anomaly .

That/s pretty crazy what is being forecasted, and so strong is the projected MJO phases that some mets are saying this puts an end to the La Nina, granted that is not like rocket science as most Ninas do weaken in the Spring, however, this weakening may happen a lot faster. 

  

 

 

 

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Good post frd. These are the types of details about NWP I like to file in the memory banks.

I know we're bruised and jaded from how things have gone so far but at least we have a chance at a strong finish. Maybe we pull off something like what happened in 2015. First 10 weeks of that winter were pretty bad but when it flipped we made up for lost ground in a hurry. And unlike some here, I like accum snow period. I couldnt give less of a crap if it comes during "sun angle season". Snow falling and accumulating in April that gets nuked 15 minutes after sunrise would still make me happy AF. 

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1 minute ago, yoda said:

CMC is decent, though it has a North to south gradient... GFS has more a NW to SE gradient

We're still way out in time. The only thing that matters to me is that ops keep showing a wave running the boundary in a really good spot for us to get some snow. The amounts are going to change every 6 hours for 6 days. Just keep us in or near the game and I'm satisfied 

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38 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We're still way out in time. The only thing that matters to me is that ops keep showing a wave running the boundary in a really good spot for us to get some snow. The amounts are going to change every 6 hours for 6 days. Just keep us in or near the game and I'm satisfied 

So...in 2015...we just happened to luck out and be on the snow side of the line for most of those chances? Lol (sounds like this is gonna be a Russian roullete)

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