Cobalt Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Just now, pasnownut said: the noise of the vaccuum that is sucking me back in is growning louder (seems like every 6 hours too) Also, if you listen carefully, you can hear the snow blowers in the distance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 5 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Also helps that it wouldn't take long for stickage. That event worked out in the March sun, even for DCA. It was quite cold through much of Feb. 2015, which helped. Then we had an ice event in early March. Followed by a brief warm-up and decent rain, then that snow event on its heels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 bob predicted we would be tracking late this week for next week....kudos on that forecast. Now comes the hard part lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: the noise of the vaccuum that is sucking me back in is growning louder (seems like every 6 hours too) It's a weenie run...lol. 3-8" on the 2nd then 2-4" on the 6th and capped off with a little ice on the 8th. Would be quite the comeback. Almost as good as the Feb 2015 comeback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Man, I really like the gfs version.... up to 1"/hr for 6 hours on this panel and temps below freezing.. Poor Wes and Mitch having their snow vaporized by the Chesapeake anti snow dome. On the whole, I’d be quite happy to take this GFS run verbatim and call it a year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: bob predicted we would be tracking late this week for next week....kudos on that forecast. Now comes the hard part lol I wish life had a fast forward button. Just like the sweet run we just saw...there is no doubt going to be disasters coming up as well. Long week inbound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 It's way out there beyond la-la land, but gotta love that 1064 high the GFS has coming down out of western Canada, with a cutter just ahead of it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I wish life had a fast foirward button. Just like the sweet run we just saw...there is no doubt going to be disasters coming up as well. Long week inbound. Now that the GFS is showing snow and no other model is...watch it finally be wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: It's a weenie run...lol. 3-8" on the 2nd then 2-4" on the 6th and capped off with a little ice on the 8th. Would be quite the comeback. Almost as good as the Feb 2015 comeback. my biggest surprise, is that we are several days ahead of where we thought the real flip would happen, and that in itself is a most welcome theme that is growing legs. Not saying its a lock, but were tracking....and thats why were here. Just remember gang, longer range has sucked, so just dont look at 384 and save yourselves some misery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Just now, pasnownut said: my biggest surprise, is that we are several days ahead of where we thought the real flip would happen, and that in itself is a most welcome theme that is growing legs. Not saying its a lock, but were tracking....and thats why were here. Just remember gang, longer range has sucked, so just dont look at 384 and save yourselves some misery. Yeah, not taking 384 hours seriously. But I was kind of bemused with that 1064 high coming down out of Canada!! That -EPO ridge just spikes right up toward the Pole at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: my biggest surprise, is that we are several days ahead of where we thought the real flip would happen, and that in itself is a most welcome theme that is growing legs. Not saying its a lock, but were tracking....and thats why were here. Just remember gang, longer range has sucked, so just dont look at 384 and save yourselves some misery. GEFS and EPS are mixed on timing. Cluster pushing through early and then another cluster pushing through on the 3rd-4th. Luckily the mix of solutions is the same with the chance of snow seeming to be increasing. Around 60% of the EPS members drop at least some snow during the 2nd-4th period and that # keeps growing every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 It looks like the GFS trended from a cutter to more of a rain to snow transition storm now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 13 minutes ago, Ji said: bob predicted we would be tracking late this week for next week....kudos on that forecast. Now comes the hard part lol It's going to be a long 4 days through the valley. We have to hope it stays on the models until like Sunday at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It's going to be a long 4 days through the valley. We have to hope it stays on the models until like Sunday at least Looks like a decent precip event is pretty well locked in at this point. As much as it can be at this lead anyways. The encouraging part is the ens are trending towards more snowy outcomes than rainy ones. I highly doubt the ops will hold snowy solutions run in run out but if the ensembles keep the trend over the next 3-4 days then we can probably start getting at least a little excited. Hopefully another event on the heels is in focus in the coming days so we're not stuck with a 1 and done chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Ji won't like this...GEFS stepped back from the last 2 runs for the d8-9 deal. Hopefully it's just noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Ji won't like this...GEFS stepped back from the last 2 runs for the d8-9 deal. Hopefully it's just noise. So the OP goes all in, and the GEFS gets cold feet. Sounds about right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Ji won't like this...GEFS stepped back from the last 2 runs for the d8-9 deal. Hopefully it's just noise. Stepped back from snowy solutions? The mean precip still looks juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Just now, Chris78 said: Stepped back from snowy solutions? The mean precip still looks juicy. Yea, more rainy ones than the last 2 runs. We're still 4-5 days away from getting a good handle on the progression either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, more rainy ones than the last 2 runs. We're still 4-5 days away from getting a good handle on the progression either way. I'm just glad it's juicng things up. The cold catching up to the precip is probably going to bounce around for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 5 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Stepped back from snowy solutions? The mean precip still looks juicy. Moved towards a more amplified idea where the second wave goes west of us also. There are still enough good solutions mixed in not to worry too much. As bob said still a few days away from getting a clear picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 FWIW, Bernie Rayno is feeling the upcoming pattern. Said to look toward next Friday for a storm and then he believes he will be doing a lot of videos on potential threats after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Euro shifted the IVT quite a bit south. Up to 2" in mappyville. Not much near the cities though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Euro shifted the IVT quite a bit south. Up to 2" in mappyville. Not much near the cities though. Is this for Day 4 or thereabouts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro shifted the IVT quite a bit south. Up to 2" in mappyville. Not much near the cities though. Inverted Trough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Is this for Day 4 or thereabouts? Yea, d4-5. It's a pretty potent IVT. Drops 3-4" in Dover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 3 minutes ago, PDIII said: Inverted Trough? this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 IVTs are very hard to forecast and I wouldn’t pay much attention to where it’s placed until like Sunday. I think the idea of the coastal snowing on us is mostly done though. I’d root for the 500mb energy to spread some love and give us all a lighter event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, d4-5. It's a pretty potent IVT. Drops 3-4" in Dover. Yeah, and the bullseye has been trending South. Is it possible for the IVT to continue shifting South, or is it as South as it can get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: Yeah, and the bullseye has been trending South. Is it possible for the IVT to continue shifting South, or is it as South as it can get? It could easily trend in any direction including going poof. It's a delicate type of setup. Much will have to do with proximity to the storm off the coast. Notable shift south with the NS energy this run. Keeps it interesting. Like WxUSAF said, notoriously hard to predict where features like this set up until we're in the short range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 EURO Day 8 goes poof with the front idea... looks nothing like the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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