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January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2


WinterWxLuvr

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20 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

Some inverted trough love at hr108 and hr114 on the 12z gfs. 

What we need is the 2 pieces to merge overhead instead of staying separate. Another VERY close call but the trailing piece is still too late. That trailing piece is what's keeping the surface temps up when the coastal passes. If we can get them to work together it could do something for our area. Still a long shot but if you want to know what to look for...that's it...

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7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

What we need is the 2 pieces to merge overhead instead of staying separate. Another VERY close call but the trailing piece is still too late. That trailing piece is what's keeping the surface temps up when the coastal passes. If we can get them to work together it could do something for our area. Still a long shot but if you want to know what to look for...that's it...

Bob... what is your take on the Feb 2nd?  Looks like we are waiting for the change over

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14 hours ago, dallen7908 said:

EPS snow chances over the next 15 days couldn't be much lower given the time of year and chaos.  The mean snow during the next 5, 10, and 15 days for the immediate DC area is 0, 1, and 2 inches.  The percent chance of at least 1inch of snow for the same time period is 0%, 33%, and 56%.  The percent chance of at least 6 inches is 0%, 3%, and 6%.  Of course day 15 only brings us to February 8th when the pattern is expected by most to improve. 

 

The updated values from the 00 UT EPS run for (00Z Jan 25 to 00Z Feb 09). 

The mean snow during the next 5, 10, and 15 days for the immediate DC area is >T, 2, and 3 inches.   The percent chance of at least 1inch of snow for the same time period is 10%, 56%, and 68%.  The percent chance of at least 6 inches is 0%, 4%, and 16%

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Looks exactly like some of the events we saw in 13-14. Mid 40's and rain flipping to paste and temps crashing. I like it but with it was 6 days closer...lol

Never a fan waiting for the temps to crash... Most of the time we are left stand on the wall with everyone else dancing.  We could use a good 4-6 incher to get morale up in the region.

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Just now, Interstate said:

Never a fan waiting for the temps to crash... Most of the time we are left stand on the wall with everyone else dancing.

It's all worth it when you go instantly from moderate rain to moderate snow. GFS solution is touchy, but I like it consistently doing a similar thing 8 days out. We just need that to continue :lol:

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2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Ha, GFS is almost bigger than what it even showed.  Vort doesn’t quite grab the surface low enough to throw a CCB back at us, but it’s close.

Just the run of the mill 4-8/6-10 here and just missed the CCB as you stated... hopefully this is a run the GFS can get better on

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1 minute ago, yoda said:

Just the run of the mill 4-8/6-10 here and just missed the CCB as you stated... hopefully this is a run the GFS can get better on

This run was right in the pocket of all the good hits on the GEFS/EPS. The good thing is there seems to be some wiggle room with the end result snowing on us. It's going to be a long week....the risk of all rain won't go away until the short range when we can trust what we're seeing. 

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6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

This run was right in the pocket of all the good hits on the GEFS/EPS. The good thing is there seems to be some wiggle room with the end result snowing on us. It's going to be a long week....the risk of all rain won't go away until the short range when we can trust what we're seeing. 

Yeah, for sure will be a long week if that keeps showing up!  Not that I would mind if it works out.

It looks very March 5, 2015-ish in a way, to me.  Strong front goes through, with a decent wave moving up.  Iffy setup, but hey, it has happened before.  (ETA:  As I recall with that March 2015 event, the GFS was actually hinting at that possibly happening some time in advance, for what it's worth.)

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Just now, Always in Zugzwang said:

Yeah, for sure will be a long week if that keeps showing up!  Not that I would mind if it works out.

It looks very March 5, 2015-ish in a way, to me.  Strong front goes through, with a decent wave moving up.  Iffy setup, but hey, it has happened before.

Also helps that it wouldn't take long for stickage. That event worked out in the March sun, even for DCA.

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Just like the ensemble runs last night...gfs sets right up for round 2 a couple days later...

Ha, yes indeed!  We're going to see some nice, exciting oper runs...and some real crappers...in the next few days, until things get sorted out one way or another.  I'm sure emotions will be all over the place in here with each run, LOL!

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