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January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2


WinterWxLuvr

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17 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I am really starting to think we are headed for disappointment in Feb as well.  Just gut feeling.  

Well, if that happens, doesn't seem like it will be because of a too far East track...it would have to be because of too far west, lol But you know how it is here...you really can't judge one winter month by the next....especially with the "new regime" coming. New look, new opportunities to score (or fail)...I'd much rather deal with a new hand than have the same ol' deck. Hopefully this storm is the last dealt from THIS rather crappy deck, lol

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13 minutes ago, Ji said:

Didnt inspect to close but it looks like worst euro run of the year

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
 

??? Out of all the runs this winter and this is the worst of the year? A little melodramatic are we? :) 

Once you take into account and adjust for the EPS' penchant for dumping too much energy into the SW this year the run was not bad whatsoever. Thought there was also some marginal improvements for the day 4/5 deal as well with the trough axis and the energy rotating down with it. Still think it is of low order probability but it does have my attention because it is somewhat close to something whether a closer coastal or an inverted trough deal. Biggest issue I see with that is even if we see the adjustments needed to get an impact in our region those very changes also probably mean we would be fighting temps as the cold would be slower to arrive. I also thought there was improvement in regards to the day 9 possibility as well as we see it take on less of a N/S axis. But day 9 so that has plenty of time to play out. 

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1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

Quick update for those that follow the EPS snowfall means. Day 4 deal is roughly the same as the 12z with .5" just N of Balt/DC. Day 8/9 jumps to roughly 2" for the cities up from 1". And the total 15 day mean jumps to 3" from 2". Not breath taking numbers but improvements none the less.

What impressed me was the overall # of hits....not a ton of big hits but a big uptick in lighter (2-6") hits.

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57 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

One of the best eps runs of the year. You're not hugging properly. 

weenie rule #.....

gotta take model bias into account when you look at perty (or not so perty) colors. 

for example - Euro is king for holding back energy in SW.  

 

that said, I'm going w/ Bob and Showme's take, and discounting Ji's ;)

interpretation %'s

Bob-49%

Showme - 49%

ji - 2%

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20 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

weenie rule #.....

gotta take model bias into account when you look at perty (or not so perty) colors. 

for example - Euro is king for holding back energy in SW.  

 

that said, I'm going w/ Bob and Showme's take, and discounting Ji's ;)

interpretation %'s

Bob-49%

Showme - 49%

ji - 2%

It's a high risk/high return pattern coming up. The good thing is waves running boundaries should be juiced up good....the bad thing is that if you are on the wrong side you only get a free car wash out of the deal. Ens mean qpf is as high as I've seen in the LR all winter so unless things completely implode...our main problem will be temps instead of precip. 

The day 4 deal is a hail mary. If it works, great...if not, it went as expected..haha. Beyond that gets pretty wild. Nothing we can dissect at longer ranges but it looks active. Probably 2 shots embedded (one d8-9 and another d11+). Then it looks like a brief return to a warmer ridge as things reload for another similar progression. 

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6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's a high risk/high return pattern coming up. The good thing is waves running boundaries should be juiced up good....the bad thing is that if you are on the wrong side you only get a free car wash out of the deal. Ens mean qpf is as high as I've seen in the LR all winter so unless things completely implode...our main problem will be temps instead of precip. 

The day 4 deal is a hail mary. If it works, great...if not, it went as expected..haha. Beyond that gets pretty wild. Nothing we can dissect at longer ranges but it looks active. Probably 2 shots embedded (one d8-9 and another d11+). Then it looks like a brief return to a warmer ridge as things reload for another similar progression. 

I'll take my chances. We tried the super cold pattern and it was a big fail. Might as well get some significant precip running at us and see if we can time it up with the colder air and get on the right side of it.

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15 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

Am I wrong to think that the upcoming pattern could very well favor areas north and west of the cities? I'm not complaining. They are due. 

Like Bob said it is one of those deals where there will be action but with a -EPO driven pattern and no help in the NA, we will be playing with fire with most threats.  In general I would think N&W will be favored for frozen(usually are anyway) over the next 2 weeks, but in this pattern interior NE would be even better lol. I am hoping we see some progression in the long wave pattern towards mid month with the mean ridge/trough axis nudging further east. 

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4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Like Bob said it is one of those deals where there will be action but with a -EPO driven pattern and no help in the NA, we will be playing with fire with most threats.  In general I would think N&W will be favored for frozen(usually are anyway) over the next 2 weeks, but in this pattern interior NE would be even better lol. I am hoping we see some progression in the long wave pattern towards mid month with the mean ridge/trough axis nudging further east. 

yeah i agree.  Areas N/W are normally favored in most regimes in the northern MA, but its not to say that something strong enough even gets them on the wrong side of the line.  EPO has been the driver this year, so the takeaway in my mind is one of seasonal tendencies.  That said, we may have a shot at some opps.  Seeing the height fields posted above surely tells us that cold should littleraly be on our side as we get to mid month, so if we can score a few shots until then....all the better.

 

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17 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Wish I knew the implications of this...All I know is that this certainly looks different than what we saw with other displacements this season.

 

Still a pretty strong vortex spinning in the strat. We're getting close to hitting the point of no return for strat stuff. Unless something major happens in the next 2 weeks, time is no longer on our side with strat/blocking help. 

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25 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Wish I knew the implications of this...All I know is that this certainly looks different than what we saw with other displacements this season.

gefs_z50a_nh_57.thumb.png.7d187d9365dbf4805163c47cd6098f9c.png

 

 

It means the stratospheric vortex will be pushed to our side of the hemisphere, but going forward, wave 2 will be approaching record low levels D10+, so when w-1 energy transfer lessens in early Feb, I'm expecting a fairly robust intensification of the stratospheric vortex. We see the reflection being detected on latest EPS runs w/ a gradually more neutral AO and positive NAO. This will imply a more poleward TPV, and increased propensity for higher geopotential heights near the East Coast for awhile. GWO/MJO progression becomes rapidly less coherent moving into favorable phases but I do still expect the u-div signal to persist eastward, so there should be another window of wintry potential after the 10th. Reservations have increased though.

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Still a pretty strong vortex spinning in the strat. We're getting close to hitting the point of no return for strat stuff. Unless something major happens in the next 2 weeks, time is no longer on our side with strat/blocking help. 

Who knows if it will verify, but the GFS is at least showing the PV displaced over NA as we move into Feb, so it wouldn't take much work to get legit cold delivered to our region.

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5 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

bump the trough axis 100-150 miles E and i'd think many would like this.

500hgt_comp_sup814.gif

That look seems pretty stable across all ensemble guidance for now. Hopefully there is some adjustment eastward, but it may take until mid month. In the meantime it wont be boring around here but cutters are inevitable.

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9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Still a pretty strong vortex spinning in the strat. We're getting close to hitting the point of no return for strat stuff. Unless something major happens in the next 2 weeks, time is no longer on our side with strat/blocking help. 

 

3 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

 

It means the stratospheric vortex will be pushed to our side of the hemisphere, but going forward, wave 2 will be approaching record low levels D10+, so when w-1 energy transfer lessens in early Feb, I'm expecting a fairly robust intensification of the stratospheric vortex. We see the reflection being detected on latest EPS runs w/ a gradually more neutral AO and positive NAO. This will imply a more poleward TPV, and increased propensity for higher geopotential heights near the East Coast for awhile. GWO/MJO progression becomes rapidly less coherent moving into favorable phases but I do still expect the u-div signal to persist eastward, so there should be another window of wintry potential after the 10th. Reservations have increased though.

Appreciate the feedback.  My brain becomes a little muddied lol trying figure out how all of these things work together and the whole chicken/egg thing.  My novice brain would think that the forecasted progression of the MJO would continue to send ridging poleward in the EPO region and therefore keeping the PV on its heels.  The next 4 weeks should be learning experience for myself with how this works together and plays off of each other.

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13 hours ago, dallen7908 said:

EPS snow chances over the next 15 days couldn't be much lower given the time of year and chaos.  The mean snow during the next 5, 10, and 15 days for the immediate DC area is 0, 1, and 2 inches.  The percent chance of at least 1inch of snow for the same time period is 0%, 33%, and 56%.  The percent chance of at least 6 inches is 0%, 3%, and 6%.  Of course day 15 only brings us to February 8th when the pattern is expected by most to improve. 

If the EPS was taken exactly as is it wasn't a great look above climo, but the EPS isnt the GEFS and is typically more stingy with snowfall so those numbers are bit higher then just a typical bad pattern look on the EPS.  But just taking guidance without any human interpretation isnt the best method IMO.  If that was then we wouldnt need meteorologists...  The EPS has been guilty of putting too much trough into the southwest during -EPO periods ALL WINTER.  It has done it again and again and again.  If we account for that then the pattern looks better and it doesn't shock me that as we come into range suddenly the EPS jumped all over a couple threats day 9-10 and 12-15.  As Bob pointed out this is a high risk reward look and if that boundary sets up too our north we just get wet.  But were in the best climo period to end up north of the boundary and its worked before.  Its definitely not our best look for snow... if I had to pick one thing to be driving the pattern for us to get snow....I would take the NAO or PNA over the EPO.  An epo driven pattern is least correlated to snowfall, cold yes...snow ehh.  BUT if we are going to snow in an EPO pattern the look day 10 is pretty close to the examples I posted a week ago of HOW it happens.  We want the core of the cold centered to our north.  Yes that opens the door to rain but no one wants a repeat of the last pattern. 

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