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January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2


WinterWxLuvr

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1 hour ago, PCT_ATC said:

Stop it, just stop it. Do you all get together at  5:00 every day just to get our hopes up?  Everyone knows (you guys included) that nothing will come from this. it will be too far north or too far south or its a Beach storm yada yada yada.. its just the way this Winter has shaped up!

Maybe the model discussion threads are not for you. Might I suggest TWC?

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1 hour ago, Ji said:

Got a weird feeling on this one as it has no hype and under the radar. See you at 1052pm lol

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
 

If this was just 2 or 3 years ago with the old GFS I would say we have it right where we want it (to the SE by a 100 miles). Not so sure now because the new GFS just doesn't seem to have that SE bias to the extent it used to display.

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6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Maybe the model discussion threads are not for you. Might I suggest TWC?

Yea, I don't get it. We've been doing this for years but suddenly it's "totally worthless" to discuss weather beyond 15 minutes in time. It's 100% optional to participate. Don't like it? Don't see any value? Well, there's abound 3 billion other websites to visit. I (we) don't need to be told or reminded about ANYTHING. 

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20 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Maybe the model discussion threads are not for you. Might I suggest TWC?

haha. you so funny!  In all seriousness though, we have all been gut punched this winter by rosy expectations only to have them fade into the nevermore.  It's hard to get excited about anything these days that's not 3 days out or less. We have had several periods where the models showed us great potential in the long range and none of them have panned out but for 3.1" registered at DCA

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54 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, that looked pretty good. Now we need to work on the strength of the shortwave and we can squeeze 6-10" out of the deal. haha

Some are down on the look, I'm not. Not every pattern like this produces but neither does every blocking pattern. But line up one of these waves just right and we're good. And so what if it's not a 10"+ pattern. How often do we get those anyways. People be spoiled by having so many HECS storms and threats of storms lately. I'll be thrilled with a 4-8" amplified wave. Those are nice. No dry slot to contend with. Just 6-10 hours of steady snow and get some jet dynamics and enough baroclincity and they can become a nice thump snow.  I'm fine rolling the dice with this pattern coming. 

23 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Maybe the model discussion threads are not for you. Might I suggest TWC?

Yea the whining about long range discussions in the long range thread is past annoying now. If you don't want to talk about it then go somewhere else. No one is making you read this. Go rain on someone else's parade. 

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12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

18z GEFS is a straight weenie run. d4-5 starting to light up and then d8-10 looks really sweet. I think Ji hacked it or something. 

lol

Mildly interested in the day 5 deal, but likely still a long shot for the MA. The period centered on day 10 is getting more intriguing though.

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26 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

4-8” area-wide would be outstanding.

Yea man, no doubt. Heck, 2-4" would bring near tears of joy to many (like me). The best part is this "new regime" being advertised looks to stick around for a while. It's not a big storm pattern but if we pull off multiple respectable events then the entire winter takes on a new personality. I remember the deep deep despair during the first week of Feb 2015. People were crawling out of their skin miserable. Then the new regime hit and everything was right with the world. Will we repeat? Impossible to say. I've posted more than once over the last couple years that if we get another progressive 14 or 15 pattern that it probably won't be nearly so kind because we got soooo many lucky breaks those winters but the upcoming flip is no doubt the best look we've had all winter. By a big margin. Mixed events are fine in my book too. 

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34 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

GEFS has unusually strong agreement for the d9-10 deal from a precip standpoint. You rarely see a .5 qpf swath like this @ d9+ leads. The members are very mixed as far as rain/snow or both go but the precip signal in general is very strong. 

The GEPS, which usually has more spread than the GEFS, shows something similar.  Mostly rain for now, but near complete agreement that something is going to be falling out of the sky during that period.

FtCbiIA.png

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EPS snow chances over the next 15 days couldn't be much lower given the time of year and chaos.  The mean snow during the next 5, 10, and 15 days for the immediate DC area is 0, 1, and 2 inches.  The percent chance of at least 1inch of snow for the same time period is 0%, 33%, and 56%.  The percent chance of at least 6 inches is 0%, 3%, and 6%.  Of course day 15 only brings us to February 8th when the pattern is expected by most to improve. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

This little window is a Hail Mary of sorts but still close enough to keep our attention 

Yeah, we're kind of in the same situation as we were in early Dec 8-9. If we can get snow before primetime (early Feb), it's welcome, but we don't need to count on it. I guess It'll be interesting enough to tide us over until the real deal threats come in in Feb. 

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5 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Yeah, we're kind of in the same situation as we were in early Dec 8-9. If we can get snow before primetime (early Feb), it's welcome, but we don't need to count on it. I guess It'll be interesting enough to tide us over until the real deal threats come in in Feb. 

Let's hope not... How did Dec turn out after Dec 8-9?  Sky high energy bills with really nothing to show for it.

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Just now, Interstate said:

Let's hope not... How did Dec turn out after Dec 8-9?  Sky high energy bills with really nothing to show for it.

I meant since we're early in the real game as of now. Dec 8-9 was the real window, and the Euro/GFS teased us with a decent hit 5 days + before the event. During that time, we were just looking for extra snow, since as we've seen before, December snow is rarely a given. That's what we're doing if this Jan 29th event comes to fruition. 

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