Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 14 minutes ago, Interstate said: Bob... you got your SW/NE on the GFS... That would make just about everyone in the region happy. Yea, that looked pretty good. Now we need to work on the strength of the shortwave and we can squeeze 6-10" out of the deal. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 1 hour ago, PCT_ATC said: Stop it, just stop it. Do you all get together at 5:00 every day just to get our hopes up? Everyone knows (you guys included) that nothing will come from this. it will be too far north or too far south or its a Beach storm yada yada yada.. its just the way this Winter has shaped up! Maybe the model discussion threads are not for you. Might I suggest TWC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 1 hour ago, Ji said: Got a weird feeling on this one as it has no hype and under the radar. See you at 1052pm lol Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Heh, check this out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 1 hour ago, Ji said: Got a weird feeling on this one as it has no hype and under the radar. See you at 1052pm lol Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk If this was just 2 or 3 years ago with the old GFS I would say we have it right where we want it (to the SE by a 100 miles). Not so sure now because the new GFS just doesn't seem to have that SE bias to the extent it used to display. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Maybe the model discussion threads are not for you. Might I suggest TWC? Yea, I don't get it. We've been doing this for years but suddenly it's "totally worthless" to discuss weather beyond 15 minutes in time. It's 100% optional to participate. Don't like it? Don't see any value? Well, there's abound 3 billion other websites to visit. I (we) don't need to be told or reminded about ANYTHING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Heh, check this out.... If only e2 and e3 were snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 20 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Maybe the model discussion threads are not for you. Might I suggest TWC? haha. you so funny! In all seriousness though, we have all been gut punched this winter by rosy expectations only to have them fade into the nevermore. It's hard to get excited about anything these days that's not 3 days out or less. We have had several periods where the models showed us great potential in the long range and none of them have panned out but for 3.1" registered at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 Just now, yoda said: If only e2 and e3 were snow lol They would be with that track. A clean coastal will snow on us. No doubt in my mind. Sure, it might mix but that type of track isn't going to be all rain. No chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 18z GEFS is a straight weenie run. d4-5 starting to light up and then d8-10 looks really sweet. I think Ji hacked it or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 54 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, that looked pretty good. Now we need to work on the strength of the shortwave and we can squeeze 6-10" out of the deal. haha Some are down on the look, I'm not. Not every pattern like this produces but neither does every blocking pattern. But line up one of these waves just right and we're good. And so what if it's not a 10"+ pattern. How often do we get those anyways. People be spoiled by having so many HECS storms and threats of storms lately. I'll be thrilled with a 4-8" amplified wave. Those are nice. No dry slot to contend with. Just 6-10 hours of steady snow and get some jet dynamics and enough baroclincity and they can become a nice thump snow. I'm fine rolling the dice with this pattern coming. 23 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Maybe the model discussion threads are not for you. Might I suggest TWC? Yea the whining about long range discussions in the long range thread is past annoying now. If you don't want to talk about it then go somewhere else. No one is making you read this. Go rain on someone else's parade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 4-8” area-wide would be outstanding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 18z GEFS is a straight weenie run. d4-5 starting to light up and then d8-10 looks really sweet. I think Ji hacked it or something. lol Mildly interested in the day 5 deal, but likely still a long shot for the MA. The period centered on day 10 is getting more intriguing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 The Jan 28/29 system on the GFS is just inching closer and closer, only question is how close will it get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Not a bad place to be at this stage. ..at hour 114 . The 00z may be worth looking at tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 12 minutes ago, Climate175 said: The Jan 28/29 system on the GFS is just inching closer and closer, only question is how close will it get? I think inching is exactly where we want to be --- no wild swings and no bullseye just yet to allow it to continue to trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 26 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: 4-8” area-wide would be outstanding. Yea man, no doubt. Heck, 2-4" would bring near tears of joy to many (like me). The best part is this "new regime" being advertised looks to stick around for a while. It's not a big storm pattern but if we pull off multiple respectable events then the entire winter takes on a new personality. I remember the deep deep despair during the first week of Feb 2015. People were crawling out of their skin miserable. Then the new regime hit and everything was right with the world. Will we repeat? Impossible to say. I've posted more than once over the last couple years that if we get another progressive 14 or 15 pattern that it probably won't be nearly so kind because we got soooo many lucky breaks those winters but the upcoming flip is no doubt the best look we've had all winter. By a big margin. Mixed events are fine in my book too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 GEFS has unusually strong agreement for the d9-10 deal from a precip standpoint. You rarely see a .5 qpf swath like this @ d9+ leads. The members are very mixed as far as rain/snow or both go but the precip signal in general is very strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: Not a bad place to be at this stage. ..at hour 114 . Looks like 4 hits and 2 or 3 maybes... that's pretty good. Granted it may be rain or snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 34 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GEFS has unusually strong agreement for the d9-10 deal from a precip standpoint. You rarely see a .5 qpf swath like this @ d9+ leads. The members are very mixed as far as rain/snow or both go but the precip signal in general is very strong. The GEPS, which usually has more spread than the GEFS, shows something similar. Mostly rain for now, but near complete agreement that something is going to be falling out of the sky during that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 EPS snow chances over the next 15 days couldn't be much lower given the time of year and chaos. The mean snow during the next 5, 10, and 15 days for the immediate DC area is 0, 1, and 2 inches. The percent chance of at least 1inch of snow for the same time period is 0%, 33%, and 56%. The percent chance of at least 6 inches is 0%, 3%, and 6%. Of course day 15 only brings us to February 8th when the pattern is expected by most to improve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 ICON much more amplified and almost pulled off the mini phase/IVT with ns energy. Interesting run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 GFS East of 18z. Looks very similar to 12z solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 the OP GFS Will just not give us any snow this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 once again....a crossroad run...needing a west and north shift..it goes south and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Yeah you could see it in the H5... not nearly as amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: the OP GFS Will just not give us any snow this year This little window is a Hail Mary of sorts but still close enough to keep our attention Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Just now, Ji said: once again....a crossroad run...needing a west and north shift..it goes south and east This was a long shot anyways... I am more interested in Feb 2-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: This little window is a Hail Mary of sorts but still close enough to keep our attention Yeah, we're kind of in the same situation as we were in early Dec 8-9. If we can get snow before primetime (early Feb), it's welcome, but we don't need to count on it. I guess It'll be interesting enough to tide us over until the real deal threats come in in Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 5 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Yeah, we're kind of in the same situation as we were in early Dec 8-9. If we can get snow before primetime (early Feb), it's welcome, but we don't need to count on it. I guess It'll be interesting enough to tide us over until the real deal threats come in in Feb. Let's hope not... How did Dec turn out after Dec 8-9? Sky high energy bills with really nothing to show for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Just now, Interstate said: Let's hope not... How did Dec turn out after Dec 8-9? Sky high energy bills with really nothing to show for it. I meant since we're early in the real game as of now. Dec 8-9 was the real window, and the Euro/GFS teased us with a decent hit 5 days + before the event. During that time, we were just looking for extra snow, since as we've seen before, December snow is rarely a given. That's what we're doing if this Jan 29th event comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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