Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 Wide spread on the GEFS for the d9-11 window. A few good, plenty of mixed, and some all rain. Basically no clarity. Later in the run shows a lot of mixed events. I'd say our chances for winter wx continue to look pretty good over the next 2 weeks but clean snow is going to take a bunch of luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Wide spread on the GEFS for the d9-11 window. A few good, plenty of mixed, and some all rain. Basically no clarity. Later in the run shows a lot of mixed events. I'd say our chances for winter wx continue to look pretty good over the next 2 weeks but clean snow is going to take a bunch of luck. looks like this weekend is a good one to enjoy the outdoors before winter gets crankin' again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Wide spread on the GEFS for the d9-11 window. A few good, plenty of mixed, and some all rain. Basically no clarity. Later in the run shows a lot of mixed events. I'd say our chances for winter wx continue to look pretty good over the next 2 weeks but clean snow is going to take a bunch of luck. Yes, but the h5 at hr 384 on the 12z GEFS mean was looking toasty. Yes, it will change at 18z, but that's not a nice look that I would like for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 Looks like we are going to be on the wrong side of the boundary for the Day 9-10 "event" with the SLP already in KY on the 12z EURO... can change and EPS should be interesting to see... but this looks to be the first chance for us to see wintry precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 I am going to guess that the coastal that develops Day 5 to Day 6 is too far east for us, correct? This is on the 12z EURO btwYeah, doesn’t do it for us. I was looking at past runs of the GFS earlier and noticed the coastal element being pushed further west and stronger the past few runs. Tried to look at some of the other levels to understood why but failed and didn’t want to post sloppy analysis. I still think it’s something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 I liked where the euro is for the d9-10 deal. It's been coming in too amplified in the med/lr consistently with nearly every event. Nice SW-NE alignment just doesn't clear the front in time. Flatten that progression out a little and get your shovels ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: I know many have punted The rest of Jan but this day 5 timeframe has an outside shot imo. A few of the Gefs members look to amplify the trailing vort and are real close to a little hit. My guess is the more separation between the 2 northern pieces of energy the better shot the trailer has room to amp ..with 850s already crashed from the the first vort it could deliver a slushy couple inches. It's got to break right but it's all we got. Still got plenty of time with this . http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGT_12z/f120.html Have been keeping half an eye on it as well but it is sort of a catch 22 with how the setup is presented by the models at this point.. The changes we would need from the trough to allow this system to come more so up the coast to impact our region also would mean we would probably see a delay in the colder air moving in. So rain instead of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 1 hour ago, yoda said: Yes, but the h5 at hr 384 on the 12z GEFS mean was looking toasty. Yes, it will change at 18z, but that's not a nice look that I would like for snow It's not a lock down wall to wall cold pattern. It's going to be a progressive series of fronts. Once you get out in time the spread smooth things out. The most likely outcome is going to be a rollercoaster of ups and downs. The 16d mean panel just had more ridges versus troughs but with the +pna/-epo in place, troughs will continue to clear our area instead of everything making hard lefts in the middle of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 29 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I liked where the euro is for the d9-10 deal. It's been coming in too amplified in the med/lr consistently with nearly every event. Nice SW-NE alignment just doesn't clear the front in time. Flatten that progression out a little and get your shovels ready. yep! 00z looked ideal...but yes..Euro right now is a snow event for us if you take into account its bias lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 Don't look now but the EPS actually doesn't look too far off for the day 5/6 storm. Just another 100-150 mile shift west would do it. Cold is already in place per the means as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: Don't look now but the EPS actually doesn't look too far off for the day 5/6 storm. Just another 100-150 mile shift west would do it. Cold is already in place per the means as well. been watching that one....that was one on of this windows that had popped up a week ago lol. it will likely be another fail. but every run has gotten a tad more interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 13 minutes ago, Ji said: been watching that one....that was one on of this windows that had popped up a week ago lol. it will likely be another fail. but every run has gotten a tad more interesting The eps members showing snow are mostly comprised of the trailing vort interacting with the low off the coast. IVT type of deal. Very few if any eps members deliver on the coastal by itself. It's pretty delicate but it might surprise us if it breaks right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 19 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: I'd want to see the western ridge situate a little more to the east of that scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 That day 5/6 thing is kinda interesting. For some masochistic reason, I'm interested in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 That day 5/6 thing is kinda interesting. For some masochistic reason, I'm interested in it. That got pretty close. Gfs most amped lol Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 That day 5/6 thing is kinda interesting. For some masochistic reason, I'm interested in it. There is always a kicker that won't phase:(Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: That day 5/6 thing is kinda interesting. For some masochistic reason, I'm interested in it. Need a little ns tug on the low. Gfs was very close to how a couple eps memebers made it work. The pull from the ns is too far north this run but that's what we want to happen here. Not out of the realm. A little ivt love would go a long ways up in dis jernt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Need a little ns tug on the low. Gfs was very close to how a couple eps memebers made it work. The pull from the ns is too far north this run but that's what we want to happen here. Not out of the realm. A little ivt love would go a long ways up in dis jernt. I just saw the 18z..was the 12z that close? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: That got pretty close. Gfs most amped lol Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk I'm def staying up for the 0z gfs. Mostly because I dont go to sleep until midnight though. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 18z would be painful d5/6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 Just now, stormtracker said: I just saw the 18z..was the 12z that close? No, not at all. Much more amplified the run. Scroll back a bit and look what losetoa6 posted with the 12z gefs. 18z almost got it done. Eps had 5-6 soltuions that dropped snow. Up from basically none the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 Stop it, just stop it. Do you all get together at 5:00 every day just to get our hopes up? Everyone knows (you guys included) that nothing will come from this. it will be too far north or too far south or its a Beach storm yada yada yada.. its just the way this Winter has shaped up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: No, not at all. Much more amplified the run. Scroll back a bit and look what losetoa6 posted with the 12z gefs. 18z almost got it done. Eps had 5-6 soltuions that dropped snow. Up from basically none the previous run. Interesting. Thanks, I could get 12z to load on the Amwx site. Maybe we get a sneak attack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 Just now, PCT_ATC said: Stop it, just stop it. Do you all get together at 5:00 every day just to get our hopes up? Everyone knows (you guys included) that nothing will come from this. it will be too far north or too far south or its a Beach storm yada yada yada.. its just the way this Winter has shaped up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 No, not at all. Much more amplified the run. Scroll back a bit and look what losetoa6 posted with the 12z gefs. 18z almost got it done. Eps had 5-6 soltuions that dropped snow. Up from basically none the previous run. Got a weird feeling on this one as it has no hype and under the radar. See you at 1052pm lol Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 Looking pretty chilly to close out January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 Glad to see the GFS lose the squashed look for early next week. It looks similar to yesterdays CMC run with an amped solution. But then of course the CMC went with a squashed solution today :). Still a long ways to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 Bob... you got your SW/NE on the GFS... That would make just about everyone in the region happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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