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January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2


WinterWxLuvr

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Wide spread on the GEFS for the d9-11 window. A few good, plenty of mixed, and some all rain. Basically no clarity. Later in the run shows a lot of mixed events. I'd say our chances for winter wx continue to look pretty good over the next 2 weeks but clean snow is going to take a bunch of luck. 

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Wide spread on the GEFS for the d9-11 window. A few good, plenty of mixed, and some all rain. Basically no clarity. Later in the run shows a lot of mixed events. I'd say our chances for winter wx continue to look pretty good over the next 2 weeks but clean snow is going to take a bunch of luck. 

looks like this weekend is a good one to enjoy the outdoors before winter gets crankin' again.

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14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Wide spread on the GEFS for the d9-11 window. A few good, plenty of mixed, and some all rain. Basically no clarity. Later in the run shows a lot of mixed events. I'd say our chances for winter wx continue to look pretty good over the next 2 weeks but clean snow is going to take a bunch of luck. 

Yes, but the h5 at hr 384 on the 12z GEFS mean was looking toasty.  Yes, it will change at 18z, but that's not a nice look that I would like for snow

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I am going to guess that the coastal that develops Day 5 to Day 6 is too far east for us, correct?  This is on the 12z EURO btw


Yeah, doesn’t do it for us.

I was looking at past runs of the GFS earlier and noticed the coastal element being pushed further west and stronger the past few runs. Tried to look at some of the other levels to understood why but failed and didn’t want to post sloppy analysis.

I still think it’s something to keep an eye on.
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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

I know many have punted The rest of Jan but this day 5 timeframe has  an outside shot imo. A few of the Gefs members look to amplify the trailing vort and are real close to a little hit. My guess is the more separation between the 2 northern pieces of energy the better shot the trailer has room to amp ..with 850s already crashed  from the the first vort it could deliver a slushy couple inches.  It's got to break right but it's all we got. Still got plenty of time with this .

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGT_12z/f120.html

 

 

 

Have been keeping half an eye on it as well but it is sort of a catch 22 with how the setup is presented by the models at this point.. The changes we would need from the trough to allow this system to come more so up the coast to impact our region also would mean we would probably see a delay in the colder air moving in. So rain instead of snow.

 

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1 hour ago, yoda said:

Yes, but the h5 at hr 384 on the 12z GEFS mean was looking toasty.  Yes, it will change at 18z, but that's not a nice look that I would like for snow

It's not a lock down wall to wall cold pattern. It's going to be a progressive series of fronts. Once you get out in time the spread smooth things out. The most likely outcome is going to be a rollercoaster of ups and downs. The 16d mean panel just had more ridges versus troughs but with the +pna/-epo in place, troughs will continue to clear our area instead of everything making hard lefts in the middle of the country. 

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29 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I liked where the euro is for the d9-10 deal. It's been coming in too amplified in the med/lr consistently with nearly every event. Nice SW-NE alignment just doesn't clear the front in time. Flatten that progression out a little and get your shovels ready. 

yep! 00z looked ideal...but yes..Euro right now is a snow event for us if you take into account its bias lol

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1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

Don't look now but the EPS actually doesn't look too far off for the day 5/6 storm. Just another 100-150 mile shift west would do it. Cold is already in place per the means as well.

If blank, model image not available

 

been watching that one....that was one on of this windows that had popped up a week ago lol. it will likely be another fail. but every run has gotten a tad more interesting

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13 minutes ago, Ji said:

been watching that one....that was one on of this windows that had popped up a week ago lol. it will likely be another fail. but every run has gotten a tad more interesting

The eps members showing snow are mostly comprised of the trailing vort interacting with the low off the coast. IVT type of deal. Very few if any eps members deliver on the coastal by itself. It's pretty delicate but it might surprise us if it breaks right. 

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

That day 5/6 thing is kinda interesting.  For some masochistic reason, I'm interested in it. 

Need a little ns tug on the low. Gfs was very close to how a couple eps memebers made it work. The pull from the ns is too far north this run but that's what we want to happen here. Not out of the realm. A little ivt love would go a long ways up in dis jernt.

 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Need a little ns tug on the low. Gfs was very close to how a couple eps memebers made it work. The pull from the ns is too far north this run but that's what we want to happen here. Not out of the realm. A little ivt love would go a long ways up in dis jernt.

 

I just saw the 18z..was the 12z that close?

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Just now, stormtracker said:

I just saw the 18z..was the 12z that close?

No, not at all. Much more amplified the run. Scroll back a bit and look what losetoa6 posted with the 12z gefs. 18z almost got it done. Eps had 5-6 soltuions that dropped snow. Up from basically none the previous run. 

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Stop it, just stop it. Do you all get together at  5:00 every day just to get our hopes up?  Everyone knows (you guys included) that nothing will come from this. it will be too far north or too far south or its a Beach storm yada yada yada.. its just the way this Winter has shaped up!

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

No, not at all. Much more amplified the run. Scroll back a bit and look what losetoa6 posted with the 12z gefs. 18z almost got it done. Eps had 5-6 soltuions that dropped snow. Up from basically none the previous run. 

Interesting. Thanks, I could get 12z to load on the Amwx site.  Maybe we get a sneak attack

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Just now, PCT_ATC said:

Stop it, just stop it. Do you all get together at  5:00 every day just to get our hopes up?  Everyone knows (you guys included) that nothing will come from this. it will be too far north or too far south or its a Beach storm yada yada yada.. its just the way this Winter has shaped up!

:wacko:

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No, not at all. Much more amplified the run. Scroll back a bit and look what losetoa6 posted with the 12z gefs. 18z almost got it done. Eps had 5-6 soltuions that dropped snow. Up from basically none the previous run. 
Got a weird feeling on this one as it has no hype and under the radar. See you at 1052pm lol

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

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