January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2

[showmethesnow]

Saw the 00Z GFS and had to laugh it was such a train wreck in the longer range. Can just imagine how many people had melt downs when they saw it dump all that energy into the SW and bump up huge SE ridging. Is it possible? Yes. Is it probable? No, considering I could find very little support from either the GEFS nor the Euro/EPS suite. I think it is just another case of the models once again over playing the energy dumping into the southwest.

[RevWarReenactor]

4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Saw the 00Z GFS and had to laugh it was such a train wreck in the longer range. Can just imagine how many people had melt downs when they saw it dump all that energy into the SW and bump up huge SE ridging. Is it possible? Yes. Is it probable? No, considering I could find very little support from either the GEFS nor the Euro/EPS suite. I think it is just another case of the models once again over playing the energy dumping into the southwest.

Would put zero confidence in an long range GFS stuff.

It consistently showed a huge rain storm this weekend for quite awhile and then poof. Gone. The truth that no one wants to admit because it disrupts the hobby; the majority of the snow storms we get, are ones that don't appear on the models until a few days out.

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Saw the 00Z GFS and had to laugh it was such a train wreck in the longer range. Can just imagine how many people had melt downs when they saw it dump all that energy into the SW and bump up huge SE ridging. Is it possible? Yes. Is it probable? No, considering I could find very little support from either the GEFS nor the Euro/EPS suite. I think it is just another case of the models once again over playing the energy dumping into the southwest.

6z op seemed to also be on board that train which crashed.  Maybe not as bad.  waiting for GEFS. 

[showmethesnow]

14 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Not sure next week yields anything, but the day 10 window looks interesting. Would likely be a messy storm and favor western areas the way it looks now.

The upcoming large scale pattern is totally EPO driven. Need that western ridge axis to nudge further east down the road. A +PNA would be nice. As advertised its a pretty nice pattern, but the cutter risk would be high, especially with no NA help in sight.

Think the day 10 deal has much more potential then the upcoming 4/5 ever had. But day 10, so lets see how it plays out.

Call me an optimist but I am not so sure we should just dismiss not seeing any -NAO help. Mostly a gut feeling but I would not be surprised to start seeing that pop up as we near in time.

[showmethesnow]

3 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

Would put zero confidence in an long range GFS stuff.

It consistently showed a huge rain storm this weekend for quite awhile and then poof. Gone. The truth that no one wants to admit because it disrupts the hobby; the majority of the snow storms we get, are ones that don't appear on the models until a few days out.

The ensembles are definitely the way to go within 5 days, if not less, with the progressive and fast flow we have had this winter. Typical Nina.

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Think the day 10 deal has much more potential then the upcoming 4/5 ever had. But day 10, so lets see how it plays out.

Call me an optimist but I am not so sure we should just dismiss not seeing any -NAO help. Mostly a gut feeling but I would not be surprised to start seeing that pop up as we near in time.

I looked at the 2m temp anomaly out past 300 on GEFS.  also h5.  not sure what to think.  looks near average but don't see trough dump in the west.  but not east either.  gradient pattern? 

[showmethesnow]

18 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

6z op seemed to also be on board that train which crashed.  Maybe not as bad.  waiting for GEFS. 

Even though they are both train wrecks there is no consistency between the 00Z and the 06Z. 500 mb are very significantly different. GFS is basically worthless this winter beyond day 7 if not sooner.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

Think the day 10 deal has much more potential then the upcoming 4/5 ever had. But day 10, so lets see how it plays out.

Call me an optimist but I am not so sure we should just dismiss not seeing any -NAO help. Mostly a gut feeling but I would not be surprised to start seeing that pop up as we near in time.

Yeah I'm not dismissing it, but we cant count on it given the advertised h5 look on the guidance. At this point I just glance at the ops, but my expectations for a good period lie further down the road. Hopefully the day 10 "threat" is real and produces something, but in general the means do not have a cold look for the east. Not bad, but overall through the first 10 days of Feb we are likely looking at average temps as things stand right now. Not to keep harping on it but I am not crazy about the EPS/GEFS placement of the western ridge axis off the west coast. That keeps much of the cold to our west and the tendency for some ridging here. Yeah I know, gradient! lol. Well that might work. Cutter potential is real too though.

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah I'm not dismissing it, but we cant count on it given the advertised h5 look on the guidance. At this point I just glance at the ops, but my expectations for a good period lie further down the road. Hopefully the day 10 "threat" is real and produces something, but in general the means do not have a cold look for the east. Not bad, but overall through the first 10 days of Feb we are likely looking at average temps as things stand right now. Not to keep harping on it but I am not crazy about the EPS/GEFS placement of the western ridge axis off the west coast. That keeps much of the cold to our west and the tendency for some ridging here. Yeah I know, gradient! lol. Well that might work. Cutter potential is real too though.

as depicted now it would work for the OH/TN valley but we would be on the wrong side I think.  average temps and average precip would be rain or rain to snow maybe.   I have to remember that for a time in Dec the pattern chatter was "epic and best look in a long time"  and it was less than spectacular.  so will roll the dice on this look and hope it improves somewhat.   

[mappy]

Haven't looked at this thread since last week but WBAL this am (Ava) mentioned chance of snow next tuesday? 

[showmethesnow]

8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah I'm not dismissing it, but we cant count on it given the advertised h5 look on the guidance. At this point I just glance at the ops, but my expectations for a good period lie further down the road. Hopefully the day 10 "threat" is real and produces something, but in general the means do not have a cold look for the east. Not bad, but overall through the first 10 days of Feb we are likely looking at average temps as things stand right now. Not to keep harping on it but I am not crazy about the EPS/GEFS placement of the western ridge axis off the west coast. That keeps much of the cold to our west and the tendency for some ridging here. Yeah I know, gradient! lol. Well that might work. Cutter potential is real too though.

Though I too would like to see the western ridging a little far east I do think the trough placement at this point is in a decent spot for our local. Puts us in the battle ground between warm and cold which of course would favor the north and west portions of our region. My bigger fear lies elsewhere with the pv and possible suppression. Been thinking for awhile that it was being depicted pretty far north and the upcoming pattern probably argued that it should be farther south. Looking over the last few days it does look as if the models are beginning to nudge that south. Just don't want to see a repeat of what we just went through with cold and dry. I will say we have better trough placement this go round if we do see the pv sliding south.

[CAPE]

Just now, BristowWx said:

as depicted now it would work for the OH/TN valley but we would be on the wrong side I think.  average temps and average precip would be rain or rain to snow maybe.   I have to remember that for a time in Dec the pattern chatter was "epic and best look in a long time"  and it was less than spectacular.  so will roll the dice on this look and hope it improves somewhat.   

I expect some pattern progression towards mid month. The way the longwave pattern is setting up initially- through probably the first 10 days of the month- we are in the game, but in my estimation complete and total failure is still on the table for that period lol. I am keeping my expectations on the modest side until mid about month, when things should become more favorable for the east. Hopefully we get everything to align and score something earlier- maybe the day 10 deal is real. I fear some meltdowns are imminent if not. I know its hard at this point for those who have gotten little snow, but it may take a little patience.

[showmethesnow]

9 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

as depicted now it would work for the OH/TN valley but we would be on the wrong side I think.  average temps and average precip would be rain or rain to snow maybe.   I have to remember that for a time in Dec the pattern chatter was "epic and best look in a long time"  and it was less than spectacular.  so will roll the dice on this look and hope it improves somewhat.   

What killed us in December was too much of a good thing. The cold overwhelmed the pattern to where just about everything was suppressed and to far east. At this point we are not seeing the suppression advertised and even if we do end up with a deep dropping pv and cold we have better trough placement then we did in December. Now of course this is all based on what the models are showing at this time so it is subject to change.

[CAPE]

10 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Though I too would like to see the western ridging a little far east I do think the trough placement at this point is in a decent spot for our local. Puts us in the battle ground between warm and cold which of course would favor the north and west portions of our region. My bigger fear lies elsewhere with the pv and possible suppression. Been thinking for awhile that it was being depicted pretty far north and the upcoming pattern probably argued that it should be farther south. Looking over the last few days it does look as if the models are beginning to nudge that south. Just don't want to see a repeat of what we just went through with cold and dry. I will say we have better trough placement this go round if we do see the pv sliding south.

Yeah I have been keeping an eye on the PV placement too, but at least on the EPS it pretty consistently has it over N Hudson Bay. In reality it will wobble around and will have a lot of impact on how cold we are here and exactly when. At this point suppression is pretty low on my list of concerns though. Now, if we get a west-based NA block to develop...lol

[North Balti Zen]

56 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Saw the 00Z GFS and had to laugh it was such a train wreck in the longer range. Can just imagine how many people had melt downs when they saw it dump all that energy into the SW and bump up huge SE ridging. Is it possible? Yes. Is it probable? No, considering I could find very little support from either the GEFS nor the Euro/EPS suite. I think it is just another case of the models once again over playing the energy dumping into the southwest.

If they did, they didn't clutter up this thread. It was just simply crickets last night.

[CAPE]

15 hours ago, WeathermanB said:

Yeah 13-14 winter sucked, wouldn't be surprised if February does the same thing again. Just gonna bandwagon.

Your posts are so inconsistent, I can only guess you are referring to the one big storm in Feb that pretty much blew chunks for eastern areas. Yeah that sucked seeing many places with a foot plus while I watched heavy snow flip to heavy rain like a switch after 4 inches. That sort of possibility absolutely will exist in the upcoming pattern as well. But to say winter 13-14 sucked anywhere in the MA is completely absurd.

[smokeybandit]

As just a weather enthusiast and not a professional, it's not even fun looking at the long range stuff this winter.

[pasnownut]

4 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

As just a weather enthusiast and not a professional, it's not even fun looking at the long range stuff this winter.

Agreed.  Its been a real challenge to trust beyond 7-10 and even then can be a glorified crap shoot.  I've been focusing more on the tellies for LR guidance, and less on the ensembles.

 

[Bob Chill]

12 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Agreed.  Its been a real challenge to trust beyond 7-10 and even then can be a glorified crap shoot.  I've been focusing more on the tellies for LR guidance, and less on the ensembles.

 

It's pretty easy to envision how the d10-15 period will look in general. Initial cold shot d10-11, return flow d12-13, new cold shot d14-15 and then repeat. lol

Lining up the precip+cold chances is definitely a med/short range game. Still a good 5 days away before we really know how the 2nd-3rd evolves. EPS is pretty bullish on snow chances but they mostly (if not all) look like rain to snow with a trailing wave idea. Our first clean snow chance will either be tight on the heels of the 2-3rd or after the next front clears. That's my entire analysis in a few short sentences. lol

[Chris78]

@ Bob Chill

Does the eps like the day 10 thing? It looks like the Euro was about to do what the GFS had at around day 10. 

It definitely seems like a see saw pattern setting up. 

With some good luck I could see us having the potential for several events or with bad luck and timing I could see us being shut out while the Ohio valley scoring big. Should be interesting over the next 10 days how things set up lol.

[pasnownut]

23 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's pretty easy to envision how the d10-15 period will look in general. Initial cold shot d10-11, return flow d12-13, new cold shot d14-15 and then repeat. lol

Lining up the precip+cold chances is definitely a med/short range game. Still a good 5 days away before we really know how the 2nd-3rd evolves. EPS is pretty bullish on snow chances but they mostly (if not all) look like rain to snow with a trailing wave idea. Our first clean snow chance will either be tight on the heels of the 2-3rd or after the next front clears. That's my entire analysis in a few short sentences. lol

Yep yep.  If you look at the models, follow up wave action is our best way to snow chances for a little while.  Never been a big fan, but can see how in this regime, it is our way through.  Keep at it man, you've been a rock this year.  Muddy snow is better than no snow right.

Hoping for that clean shot at white gold once we get into Feb.  Things seem to be aligning for it.  Hope so.  I've been "chillin" through the warmup, but hope to be back at it by this time next week. Can you drum up some NAO loving for us?? I think we are going to need that.  We know what the EPO can do, but I'd feel better if we can get some help.  If not, I still feel latter Feb could be good as wavelengths/seasonal progression help to buckle the flow.....but thats WAY out there.  

 

[Bob Chill]

8 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

@ Bob Chill

Does the eps like the day 10 thing? It looks like the Euro was about to do what the GFS had at around day 10. 

It definitely seems like a see saw pattern setting up. 

With some good luck I could see us having the potential for several events or with bad luck and timing I could see us being shut out while the Ohio valley scoring big. Should be interesting over the next 10 days how things set up lol.

Around 30 members have some sort of snow in their solution d9-11. No real big ones though. A couple decent 3-6" events in the mix but the bulk is in the T-2" range. Ensembles are just starting to sort it out though. Every day looks a little better. Getting a good look on the front side of a new pattern doesn't come easy here so expectations should be for "any snow is good snow" and leave it at that. 

Even though the mean h5 plots show the trough axis a bit further west than we would like, there is plenty of cold embedded in the members. Spread and smoothing don't really tell the real story. The cold shots looks pretty solid but they are the in and out in 3 days kinds of deals. Similar to what we saw in 14&15. Keep spinning the wheel with the PV near hudson and our odds go up every round to FINALLY get a legit snow. I would expect things to progress in our favor as time rolls forward. Weeklies last night looked really good again. Right through the end. All guidance is pointing towards a winterlike pattern for 5 weeks once we get beyond the first few days of Feb. 

[Scraff]

12z GFS delivers some fun. Hope this is still on the models by this upcoming weekend.

[clskinsfan]

I actually like the look in the long range on the GFS. There will be multiple chances to score something. And we are heading into our prime climo for snow. The odds that we get shutout in Feb are looking less and less likely IMO.

[Cobalt]

3 minutes ago, Scraff said:

12z GFS delivers some fun. Hope this is still on the models by this upcoming weekend.

Euro looked like it had a similar solution near that time. Only issue is, it's still way out there. The storm itself has been a constant fixture on every operational, so hopefully we can get some good anafront snow like depicted. It's been a while since we've succeeded with that type of snow. Last time I remember was March 5th 2015, but I could be wrong. 

[PDIII]

5 minutes ago, Scraff said:

12z GFS delivers some fun. Hope this is still on the models by this upcoming weekend.

I am putting all my eggs in this basket: 

 

 

[Bob Chill]

Personally (and don't throw rocks)...lol...I don't like this type of amplified N-S alignment. When looking for waves running a boundary you want to see a more sw-ne alignment. The GFS shows anafront snow but 9.5 times out of 10 a vort pass like this is preip shutting off before cold can really do much. Luckily it's 10 days away and will change every 6-12 hours for many days to come. 

[PDIII]

Like seriously.. why does the GFS even show that?  There must be some programatic error that produces these phantom back end snow events on the GFS.  I am sure that the people that actually run the GFS could care less about this.. but the above plot is a pretty sig event.. that will basically never happen 

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, PDIII said:

Like seriously.. why does the GFS even show that?  There must be some programatic error that produces these phantom back end snow events on the GFS.  I am sure that the people that actually run the GFS could care less about this.. but the above plot is a pretty sig event.. that will basically never happen 

Usually the false signal for post-frontal snow is just the plotting algorithm looking at current temps at the time of a given panel and then assuming all precip in the previous 6 hours fell with those conditions. This day 9-10 GFS post frontal snow is actually somewhat legit because there is a trailing wave on the front. As Bob said, it’s still probably overdoing it with that configuration, but it’s more legit than usual.

[PDIII]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Usually the false signal for post-frontal snow is just the plotting algorithm looking at current temps at the time of a given panel and then assuming all precip in the previous 6 hours fell with those conditions. This day 9-10 GFS post frontal snow is actually somewhat legit because there is a trailing wave on the front. As Bob said, it’s still probably overdoing it with that configuration, but it’s more legit than usual.

Nice explanation!