poolz1 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Starting to look like a 2 step process on the EPS. First shot through on the 3rd with some brief ridging before the mother lode. So you expect the EPO ridge to move east like in late Dec/early Jan? I posted the 5 day mean but even the D15 prog has the vortex in Can pretty much stationary. Can you tell I'm trying my best to will a pattern different from our last...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 3 minutes ago, poolz1 said: So you expect the EPO ridge to move east like in late Dec/early Jan? I posted the 5 day mean but even the D15 prog has the vortex in Can pretty much stationary. Can you tell I'm trying my best to will a pattern different from our last...lol It's starting off different but I do expect it to roll forward at some point. CFS and euro weeklies both show week 3 being the cold and dry kind. It's so far down the line that it's really not worth worrying about much. We'll have our shots before worrying about that stuff. We need to get out of where were in now. 60's are great and all but it's hard to snow for some reason. ETA: It's notable that the first inbound cold around the 3rd is a good bit ahead of schedule. Just a week ago we wrote off the first week of Feb. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: It's starting off different but I do expect it to roll forward at some point. CFS and euro weeklies both show week 3 being the cold and dry kind. It's so far down the line that it's really not worth worrying about much. We'll have our shots before worrying about that stuff. We need to get out of where were in now. 60's are great and all but it's hard to snow for some reason. Yeah, I know that you come from more of a focus on whats in front us point of view...and this winter has served you well with that approach. Just my 2 cents, but I was thinking, after seeing the weeklies and CFS, that our highest odds for good solid snows may be in late Feb and March. There looks to be plenty of cold in NA and when the spring pattern starts to show itself there is bound to be fight....more so than usual, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 3 hours ago, WeathermanB said: I wonder how the Feb 5-6 2010 storm happened.. was there a weak el nino? Don't expect a Feb 2010. Our best case is a Feb 2014 storm in this upcoming pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 10 minutes ago, Climate175 said: Don't expect a Feb 2010. Our best case is a Feb 2014 storm in this upcoming pattern. Seems doable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 43 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, me too. The entire d10+ honestly. Unlike the December flip, we look to walk the line this time. Not for the faint of heart because any threat that shows in the mid range will be ripe for ptype or track problems but the EPS was very active like the GEFS. Some great things mixed in along with some disasters...patience should be running pretty thin in a week too. Can't wait for the first fantasy snow to flip to fantasy rain. Good times. Well we tried guaranteed cold and marginal precip, which didn't turn out as well as we hoped......so we might as well try guaranteed precip with possibly marginal cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 4 minutes ago, MountainGeek said: Well we tried guaranteed cold and marginal precip, which didn't turn out as well as we hoped......so we might as well try guaranteed precip with possibly marginal cold. thats a very good way to put it. And from what is showing in the LR, that may very well be the case. Remember, you gotta smell the rain for the best snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 3 minutes ago, MountainGeek said: Well we tried guaranteed cold and marginal precip, which didn't turn out as well as we hoped......so we might as well try guaranteed precip with possibly marginal cold. Better to have 5 or six rolls of the dice instead of the one or two chances we had this month (and the two dice only had 2 dots on each side...so dry!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 1 minute ago, WeathermanB said: Seems doable Probably not honestly. Don't mean to burst your bubble, but 13-14 was a fluke year. I think our best chance of a storm is a storm where we flirt/change over to a mix or rain, but the banding features overperform. That did happen in round 1 of Feb 12-14 (round 1 was before most areas flipped to rain. Round 2 was the ULL and it was a burst of snow on the back end). Some examples of this happening are: Presidents Day 2016: And Feb 21, 2015: Both of these storms had heavy bands of snow that basically didn't move throughout the storm. Both of these storms also had CAD (cold air damming), which helped the jackpotted areas before a flip to mixing or rain. I'll link the two storm recaps of CWG if you want to recap them. This is how we'd get a heavy snowfall IMO. Most decent winters we flirt with ptype issues. We didn't do that in December/January , and so nobody near us ever got jackpotted with the 2 largest events of the year (Dec 8-9, Jan 4th). Only time will tell if this happens once again. Feb 15th 2016 Recap: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/02/16/a-tricky-forecast-for-a-wintry-mix-produced-mixed-results/?utm_term=.c16ea59b1db9 Feb 21st 2015 Recap: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/02/22/the-meteorology-behind-saturdays-multiple-choice-winter-storm/?utm_term=.770c498a0b25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Yeah 13-14 winter sucked, wouldn't be surprised if February does the same thing again. Just gonna bandwagon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 6 minutes ago, WeathermanB said: Yeah 13-14 winter sucked, wouldn't be surprised if February does the same thing again. Just gonna bandwagon. 13-14 certainly didn't suck. I was just pointing out that was a year where we did amazing without a great pattern. Nobody could've said that that winter would be snowy/cold in November with certainty. Most areas got a head start in the Dec 8-9 event (plus 1 more during that week), and We had one of the greatest Late Jan-Late March periods in recent memory. I was just pointing out how we did great during that winter by a -EPO and pure chance. That was the 1 time out of the 3 we get every decade where snow comes easy, only it wasn't in a Mod El Nino like our other 2 bigger winters during the 2000s came. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Bob wrote up a nice PSA that was followed for about 2 days. Can we please the banter to the banter room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 6 minutes ago, MountainGeek said: I'm assuming you're being sarcastic on this one? 13-14 was the best winter of the decade IMO, since it was a string of moderate events with constant cold and good snowcover (one of my benchmarks). Constant tracking with RESULTS almost every time. HECS are lots of fun, but a lot of times those are one-shot deals with long gaps of nothing or rain in between (see 15-16). I assume you aren't counting 09'-10' as part of this decade? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I assume you aren't counting 09'-10' as part of this decade? Lol It was as close to a 60's winter as you can get. Snow and cold embedded in 4 straight months with pretty stunning totals in both total snowfall and # of events. It doesn't pass 09-10 for total accumulations but for a 4 month winter experience you have to go back basically 50 years to find a close match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 GFS gets some wet snow into our area (along with some rain) near hour 150. Has showed up multiple times on separate runs over the past few days, so could be next chance of light accumulations, especially in Western burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 18z GFS brings some little snow in the region Jan 29/30 from a little clipper. Past few runs have shown differences in where it tracks, but there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 And I agree with interstate. Recapping past winters is 100% banter. We all form our own opinions on what is great and what isn't anyways. It always ends up an endless debate that accomplishes nothing because we all perceive things differently. Let's stick to the future. Looks a lot better than at any time last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: GFS gets some wet snow into our area (along with some rain) near hour 150. Has showed up multiple times on separate runs over the past few days, so could be next chance of light accumulations, especially in Western burbs. 850s are stone cold. Surface warm but that shouldn’t be too much rain if it happens like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: And I agree with interstate. Recapping past winters is 100% banter. We all form our own opinions on what is great and what isn't anyways. It always ends up an endless debate that accomplishes nothing because we all perceive things differently. Let's stick to the future. Looks a lot better than at any time last year. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 16 minutes ago, Climate175 said: 18z GFS brings some little snow in the region Jan 29/30 from a little clipper. Past few runs have shown differences in where it tracks, but there's that. Yeah. It's an interesting difference between the 12Z run and 18Z. It still squashes the southern storm but gives us snow from the upper stream feature. Really different from anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 47 minutes ago, WeathermanB said: Yeah 13-14 winter sucked, wouldn't be surprised if February does the same thing again. Just gonna bandwagon. LOL! Is this snark? Or just trolling? Being honest here. I don't want to venture too much into banter debating what winter is better than another, but this...just no. Just for the record, I'd consider 2013-14 easily the 3rd best winter in the time I've lived in this area (moved here in 2001). Almost 2nd, but I'm hard pressed to put it ahead of the season that had PD-II! But the sheer number of trackable events that year...wow! More on topic, I'm very glad to see that indications getting into early February are more or less on track. I don't expect much of anything the remainder of January. But if we get a snow TV mini paste bomb next week as an "appetizer", I won't complain! Some of those 12Z GEFS ensemble members that Bob showed earlier were quite nice for the early part of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 9 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Yea...it looks like it splits the n.energy that run and the blob of precip the snow comes from is from the trailer or 2nd piece. My guess is that little trailing vort is just a phantom. Too subtle and too far out in time for an op to get that right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mordecai Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 Kudos to @wxmvpete on twitter. Thought it was worth a mention. This is the 2nd driest Nov 1 to Jan 22 period ever in the DC area. #1 is Jan 1966 but the funny part is that there was a blizzard a week later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 The good thing about extended dry periods is they usually end with extended wet periods. Next couple weeks don't look excessive with precip but they certainly don't look dry either. I only care about snow this time of year. Eps ramping up the snow solutions centered around Feb 3rd. Hopefully the trend continues until we all break out our shovels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The good thing about extended dry periods is they usually end with extended wet periods. Next couple weeks don't look excessive with precip but they certainly don't look dry either. I only care about snow this time of year. Eps ramping up the snow solutions centered around Feb 3rd. Hopefully the trend continues until we all break out our shovels. The epo could camp out right where we need it around that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The good thing about extended dry periods is they usually end with extended wet periods. Next couple weeks don't look excessive with precip but they certainly don't look dry either. I only care about snow this time of year. Eps ramping up the snow solutions centered around Feb 3rd. Hopefully the trend continues until we all break out our shovels. The downside scenario I want to avoid is if we manage to stay dry just long enough to get past our snow climo temps, and then we rain for 3-4 weeks straight in April or May to make up for it. So I definitely like seeing at least some signals for decent precip showing up for Feb.....and we're not going to torch the entire month either so it is likely we get at least a few good opportunities (if not more). Like PSU always says, give us enough chances and we'll eventually score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 CWG tweet earlier showed the last 3 times when a Winter Olympics was held— all three had significant storms in February (2006, 2010, 2014). Fire up those snowblowers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 1 minute ago, nj2va said: CWG tweet earlier showed the last 3 times when a Winter Olympics was held— all three had significant storms in February (2006, 2010, 2014). Fire up those snowblowers. Saw that too. Only risk is 1998 and 2002 are in that group too. A government shutdown AND the Olympics happened last in 13/14 according to the article, so take that as you will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 Good euro run tonight...little clipper next week gives us a little light snow lol....and then 240....looks like a rain to ice to snow combo...i would think there would be a prolonged period of wintry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 4 hours ago, Ji said: Good euro run tonight...little clipper next week gives us a little light snow lol....and then 240....looks like a rain to ice to snow combo...i would think there would be a prolonged period of wintry Not sure next week yields anything, but the day 10 window looks interesting. Would likely be a messy storm and favor western areas the way it looks now. The upcoming large scale pattern is almost totally Pacific (EPO) driven. Need that western ridge axis to nudge further east down the road. A +PNA would be nice. As advertised its a pretty nice pattern, but the cutter risk would be high, especially with no NA help in sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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