WeathermanB Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: No, holy grail of mod nino + -AO/NAO. The ultimate combo and don't come around very often. ew... no 2010-like event this February? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 And the GEFS is clearly trending toward colder temps starting on super bowl weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Just now, WeathermanB said: ew... no 2010-like event this February? No guidance is showing a pattern that would support a blocked/crawling miller A. Nina climo doesn't favor that type of event at all either. You can never rule anything out but Feb 2010 was a very special setup that may not happen again for a decade or 2 or 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 57 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Best case for us corridor folks is a flip at the end. The biggest problem is that even with an ideal track, cold isn't established and it's filling in behind the low. Not a way we do well in our yards but western and elevation folks could see a period of accum snow if it breaks right. It's funny how the GFS (and CMC to an extent) had an aggressive trailing wave idea in the LR, then went flat and lame in the MR, and are now bringing back the idea as leads shorten. Euro has been very steady with the trailing wave idea. In this case it looks like the euro has been handling the progression the best. Either way I'm not particularly excited due to temps roasting in advance. A period of non accum snow would still be a pretty big win all things considered. How about a blend of the CMC and the GFS, as currently depicted. GFS has the front setting up off the coast as opposed to the CMC where it is inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Yeah i would give around a 30% chance of a 12''+ event for Mid-atlantic, but nothing 30''-like. Could rise as we get closer to Mid-February.. maybe 20% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 1 minute ago, WeathermanB said: Yeah i would give around a 30% chance of a 12''+ event for Mid-atlantic, but nothing 30''-like. Could rise as we get closer to Mid-February.. maybe 20% Where is your scientific data for this? Do you have any reasoning for it? If you are just pulling it out of thin air... then take it to the banter room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 1 minute ago, Wonderdog said: How about a blend of the CMC and the GFS, as currently depicted. GFS has the front setting up off the coast as opposed to the CMC where it is inland. If you look at the upper levels on the CMC, it's a complicated progression with a mini-phase with a trailing piece of energy in the northern stream. That's the only reason it shows meaningful snow. Considering that a progression like that is intricate and complicated...and also 7 days away...I would say the chances of all rain are 90%+ based on a blend of all guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 24 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I had 18” from the Feb ‘14 storm. Weird. Did a lot of it melt that day? I think I got about 12-14 inches from round one, but between drizzle and mist all day and the mid February sun, a lot of it had melted by the time round 2 came through and put down another inch or two. That storm was one that was really disappointing for my area. Great overnight when we crushed it with WAA snows but once it moved out and temps spike, the drip came so quick that it was like it hardly snowed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Meh 1/28/99 is the number 1 analog. Not a great pattern with a lot of lows tracking over MICH. We can get lucky with anafronts like in 2014, but that's not what usually happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Judging on the NAO forecast and other factors and the new run just came out.. i'm lowering the chances to a 10%. The latest NAO forecast has a positive forecast. We're looking for an optimal -EPO, +PNA, -AO and -NAO for a big snowstorm like Feb. 2010. We also need a Moderate El Nino combo. Not looking good for snowstorms all of a sudden, but it is probably gonna change a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: If you look at the upper levels on the CMC, it's a complicated progression with a mini-phase with a trailing piece of energy in the northern stream. That's the only reason it shows meaningful snow. Considering that a progression like that is intricate and complicated...and also 7 days away...I would say the chances of all rain are 90%+ based on a blend of all guidance. My blend included the GFS bias of being too far south and east of us, at the present time. I'm sure you have compared the last four runs of the GFS for that time period. Last night's EURO had a storm in southwestern VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Weird. Did a lot of it melt that day? I think I got about 12-14 inches from round one, but between drizzle and mist all day and the mid February sun, a lot of it had melted by the time round 2 came through and put down another inch or two. That storm was one that was really disappointing for my area. Great overnight when we crushed it with WAA snows but once it moved out and temps spike, the drip came so quick that it was like it hardly snowed. No? I mean there was some melting and compaction for sure, but it was around 34F with drizzle all day. Not a torch or anything. From the 14” that fell overnight, I’d guess the depth was probably still around 10” when the ULL came through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 2 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: By the time 850s cave, we're sitting high and dry. Euro is only a decent event in Upstate New York from the looks of the surface maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: By the time 850s cave, we're sitting high and dry. Euro is only a decent event in Upstate New York from the looks of the surface maps. Can you tell if that lp originated in the GOM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Don't ignore this panel on the CMC. This is 6 hours before "the flip". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 12z Euro is way less impressive at h5 for early next week compared to 0z. It completely lost a pretty decent snow event for the MD and WV highlands, western PA, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Don't ignore this panel on the CMC. This is 6 hours before "the flip". Quit crushing their hopes Bob. You know waiting for the cold to come rushing in for a changeover is one of our higher probability snow scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 just close the blinds till end of Jan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: 12z Euro is way less impressive at h5 for early next week compared to 0z. It completely lost a pretty decent snow event for the MD and WV highlands, western PA, etc. its trending towards the GFS again....progressive...weak...almost like a cold front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: 12z Euro is way less impressive at h5 for early next week compared to 0z. It completely lost a pretty decent snow event for the MD and WV highlands, western PA, etc. Went progressive...lol. GFS FTW! ...or we have no idea how it will go because we are way outside useful op range. Then entire thing is a massive long shot amidst a very hostile pattern for snow. I'm saving my energy for Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Went progressive...lol. GFS FTW! ...or we have no idea how it will go because we are way outside useful op range. Then entire thing is a massive long shot amidst a very hostile pattern for snow. I'm saving my energy for Feb. It sure has lol. I have not been paying much attention at all honestly, just casually watching. I am with you- very unlikely we see anything significant until early Feb. Maybe sometime mid late first week if we get really lucky and the recent GFS op runs aren't completely nutz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Gradient... Nice to see the eps stop the progression trough instead of blasting the cold east and overwhelming the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 7 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Gradient... Nice to see the eps stop the progression trough instead of blasting the cold east and overwhelming the pattern. Starting to look like a 2 step process on the EPS. First shot through on the 3rd with some brief ridging before the mother lode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: We have a panic room specifically for this stuff. Know I haven't been posting much lately but what I see coming down the pipeline looks very promising. We could be looking at a long duration active pattern that will afford us multiple opportunities at snow. And yet we have people already wanting to close the book on this winter? SMH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Starting to look like a 2 step process on the EPS. First shot through on the 3rd with some brief ridging before the mother lode. Actually getting a little bit interested around the day 10/11 period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 1 hour ago, WeathermanB said: Judging on the NAO forecast and other factors and the new run just came out.. i'm lowering the chances to a 10%. The latest NAO forecast has a positive forecast. We're looking for an optimal -EPO, +PNA, -AO and -NAO for a big snowstorm like Feb. 2010. We also need a Moderate El Nino combo. Not looking good for snowstorms all of a sudden, but it is probably gonna change a lot. You seem obsessed with "a big snowstorm like 2010" lately. It's 99% likely not happening this year. First of all storms like that happen 1-2 times a decade typically. And we have had 3 in the last 10 years now. We're not due for another 10 years at least. flukes can happen but almost all HECS storms like that happen in years with an active stj Nino regime and nao blocking. The only exception in the last 50 years was 1996 and that had extreme blocking and an active stj just not a Nino. Fluke. Were in a progressive Nina pattern. We can get snow but the odds of a HECS storm like 2010 are so remote it's not worth even bringing it up over and over like you are. We should be rooting for waves on a boundary type storms like 2014 and 2015. That's what we can do in this pattern. If crazy blocking shows up later in winter then maybe we can entertain HECS prospects talk but it's a pipe dream right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Know I haven't been posting much lately but what I see coming down the pipeline looks very promising. We could be looking at a long duration active pattern that will afford us multiple opportunities at snow. And yet we have people already wanting to close the book on this winter? SMH. Agree that's why I told them take it somewhere else. It's been really good in here the last week no reason to start that nonsense up again. They can have a pity party in the panic room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Starting to look like a 2 step process on the EPS. First shot through on the 3rd with some brief ridging before the mother lode. EPS really goes bonkers with the EPO this run, but the ridge axis pulls back pretty far west later in the run, and keeps the core of the cold more in the central US with some ridging along the east coast. This will probably change, and ultimately that ridge axis should shift east with time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Actually getting a little bit interested around the day 10/11 period. Yea, me too. The entire d10+ honestly. Unlike the December flip, we look to walk the line this time. Not for the faint of heart because any threat that shows in the mid range will be ripe for ptype or track problems but the EPS was very active like the GEFS. Some great things mixed in along with some disasters...patience should be running pretty thin in a week too. Can't wait for the first fantasy snow to flip to fantasy rain. Good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.