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January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2


WinterWxLuvr

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2 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

Pattern starts to improve after the 29th, have the feeling there will be a big storm this winter, we need to get the big Siberian high to relax and share the wealth a little, then maybe people whose names don't have all k's and v's can have winter too. 

Man, I hope your gut feeling is correct!! 

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A neighbor of mine asked my wife to ask me if there's going to be a big storm in February, because that's what she heard. I'm now calling on the help of the amwx brain trust.

So...Bob, psu, Subtropics, WxUSAF, Wes, and the rest of our esteemed hobbyists and mets, what should I tell them? Maybe just stick with the Farmer's Almanac? Follow Bastardi and Berk on Twatter?

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2 minutes ago, mattie g said:

A neighbor of mine asked my wife to ask me if there's going to be a big storm in February, because that's what she heard. I'm now calling on the help of the amwx brain trust.

So...Bob, psu, Subtropics, WxUSAF, Wes, and the rest of our esteemed hobbyists and mets, what should I tell them? Maybe just stick with the Farmer's Almanac? Follow Bastardi and Berk on Twatter?

That's easy mattie. Just tell them that winter temps are coming back during the first week of Feb and they could last a while. Big storms around here always require a good bit of luck and being accurately predicted 5 days in advance is a challenge let alone weeks or months. It's fair to say that it looks like above average chances for more snow in Feb. How much can't be answered honeslty and accurately. 

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EPS and GEFS pretty much agree now that Feb 3rd is the beginning of a colder regime. Unlike the previous flip in Dec, the trough axis is further west. Still a very amplified pattern and probably active along the gradient. It's not an uber cold look for us but that's probably a good thing. For now....our area looks to be on the active side of the boundary. Doesn't mean easy or all snow but I'd much prefer having legit precip chances fairly tightly spaced instead of a shut down/freeze out pattern we got stuck in for 2 weeks. 

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

EPS and GEFS pretty much agree now that Feb 3rd is the beginning of a colder regime. Unlike the previous flip in Dec, the trough axis is further west. Still a very amplified pattern and probably active along the gradient. It's not an uber cold look for us but that's probably a good thing. For now....our area looks to be on the active side of the boundary. Doesn't mean easy or all snow but I'd much prefer having legit precip chances fairly tightly spaced instead of a shut down/freeze out pattern we got stuck in for 2 weeks. 

With the trough axis further west, does that allow vortices to travel up the coast more inland?  I feel like we had 2-3 near misses this season with tight gradient storms that road the coast too far east 

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2 hours ago, mattie g said:

A neighbor of mine asked my wife to ask me if there's going to be a big storm in February, because that's what she heard. I'm now calling on the help of the amwx brain trust.

So...Bob, psu, Subtropics, WxUSAF, Wes, and the rest of our esteemed hobbyists and mets, what should I tell them? Maybe just stick with the Farmer's Almanac? Follow Bastardi and Berk on Twatter?

The pattern improves but we're still fighting La Nina climo and big storms (12"or more) take quite a bit of luck and around here are pretty rare. 

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19 minutes ago, usedtobe said:

The pattern improves but we're still fighting La Nina climo and big storms (12"or more) take quite a bit of luck and around here are pretty rare. 

Totally agree Wes. A big storm pattern it is not. 2 key ingredients are missing (-NAO and/or 50/50). Amplified wave is likely the best scenario unless everything lines up perfect...which is soooo common. haha

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34 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Hmmm. The 12Z CMC is really close to an event west of the cities for early next week. The GFS isnt far away either. One to keep an eye on for sure. 

FWIW..Add the 12z ICON to that list of close calls for western zones.  Great low track...

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_45.thumb.png.4967abe6191946596b4c9c4548e03805.png

 

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2 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Looks like a nice rainstorm to me.

If it was to be frozen at all it would be west of the cities with some elevation. It is going to be a rainstorm for sure. But those of us to the west do have a real shot to see a little snow out of it at the end. The track is good and the 850's really crash. It wouldnt be anything big obviously with the warmth ahead of time. But it is something for us snow starved western folks to keep an eye on at least. 

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7 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Looks like a nice rainstorm to me.

Best case for us corridor folks is a flip at the end. The biggest problem is that even with an ideal track, cold isn't established and it's filling in behind the low. Not a way we do well in our yards but western and elevation folks could see a period of accum snow if it breaks right. 

It's funny how the GFS (and CMC to an extent) had an aggressive trailing wave idea in the LR, then went flat and lame in the MR, and are now bringing back the idea as leads shorten. Euro has been very steady with the trailing wave idea. In this case it looks like the euro has been handling the progression the best. Either way I'm not particularly excited due to temps roasting in advance. A period of non accum snow would still be a pretty big win all things considered.  

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9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Best case for us corridor folks is a flip at the end. The biggest problem is that even with an ideal track, cold isn't established and it's filling in behind the low. Not a way we do well in our yards but western and elevation folks could see a period of accum snow if it breaks right. 

It's funny how the GFS (and CMC to an extent) had an aggressive trailing wave idea in the LR, then went flat and lame in the MR, and are now bringing back the idea as leads shorten. Euro has been very steady with the trailing wave idea. In this case it looks like the euro has been handling the progression the best. Either way I'm not particularly excited due to temps roasting in advance. A period of non accum snow would still be a pretty big win all things considered.  

Maybe the EURO is the king of the new pattern!?!?

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11 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

Maybe the EURO is the king of the new pattern!?!?

We'll see how it goes but we're still in the thaw pattern until the first week of Feb so I don't really care much on which model is most accurate with my rainstorm. haha. In 10 days we can start judging the new pattern and how models do. 

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6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Didn't we have a 12 incher (or close) one of those years?

2/13/14 was the big event of the year. It was a 1-2 punch with warm air advection snow/lull/upper level low pass. There was mixing and sleet before the lull. I got 13" overnight and then another 3.25" with the upper level low but it was hours later. That event was more a byproduct of luck than it was pattern because the entire period of DJFM was progressive with no blocking. 

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I just dug up my totals for 13/14. Big totals but only 2 notable large events. The bulk of the storms were pretty standard 1-6" range

11/27: T
12/08: 1.5" snow .25" sleet .20 Ice
12/10: 2.0" 
12/14: .25" 
01/02: 4.5"
01/21: 6.75"
01/28: .5"
02/09: .5"
02/13: 16.25" (13 front / 3.25 ull)
02/18: 1.0"
02/25: 1.25"

02/26: 2.50"

03/03: 5.50"

03/16: 9.50"

03/25: 3.00" 

03/30: .7"

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GEFS made a decisive move towards storms approaching from the SW and attacking cold air. Some big events for the SE/MA that haven't been on any previous ens runs. The snow maps that hit the SE/MA are legit and not the typical crappy GEFS solutions treating mixed as snow. All of the action is d10-16

tjm7pyX.jpg

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