Maestrobjwa Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 2 hours ago, Roger Smith said: Pattern starts to improve after the 29th, have the feeling there will be a big storm this winter, we need to get the big Siberian high to relax and share the wealth a little, then maybe people whose names don't have all k's and v's can have winter too. Man, I hope your gut feeling is correct!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Euro looks close to something for Monday... Strorm passes right over top of us from southwest. 3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Man, I hope your gut feeling is correct!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 A neighbor of mine asked my wife to ask me if there's going to be a big storm in February, because that's what she heard. I'm now calling on the help of the amwx brain trust. So...Bob, psu, Subtropics, WxUSAF, Wes, and the rest of our esteemed hobbyists and mets, what should I tell them? Maybe just stick with the Farmer's Almanac? Follow Bastardi and Berk on Twatter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 2 minutes ago, mattie g said: A neighbor of mine asked my wife to ask me if there's going to be a big storm in February, because that's what she heard. I'm now calling on the help of the amwx brain trust. So...Bob, psu, Subtropics, WxUSAF, Wes, and the rest of our esteemed hobbyists and mets, what should I tell them? Maybe just stick with the Farmer's Almanac? Follow Bastardi and Berk on Twatter? That's easy mattie. Just tell them that winter temps are coming back during the first week of Feb and they could last a while. Big storms around here always require a good bit of luck and being accurately predicted 5 days in advance is a challenge let alone weeks or months. It's fair to say that it looks like above average chances for more snow in Feb. How much can't be answered honeslty and accurately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Well there is going to be a big storm. Whether or not it affects our area is TBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 EPS and GEFS pretty much agree now that Feb 3rd is the beginning of a colder regime. Unlike the previous flip in Dec, the trough axis is further west. Still a very amplified pattern and probably active along the gradient. It's not an uber cold look for us but that's probably a good thing. For now....our area looks to be on the active side of the boundary. Doesn't mean easy or all snow but I'd much prefer having legit precip chances fairly tightly spaced instead of a shut down/freeze out pattern we got stuck in for 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdsofprey02 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: EPS and GEFS pretty much agree now that Feb 3rd is the beginning of a colder regime. Unlike the previous flip in Dec, the trough axis is further west. Still a very amplified pattern and probably active along the gradient. It's not an uber cold look for us but that's probably a good thing. For now....our area looks to be on the active side of the boundary. Doesn't mean easy or all snow but I'd much prefer having legit precip chances fairly tightly spaced instead of a shut down/freeze out pattern we got stuck in for 2 weeks. With the trough axis further west, does that allow vortices to travel up the coast more inland? I feel like we had 2-3 near misses this season with tight gradient storms that road the coast too far east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Big changes in the H5 at 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Hmmm. The 12Z CMC is really close to an event west of the cities for early next week. The GFS isnt far away either. One to keep an eye on for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 2 hours ago, mattie g said: A neighbor of mine asked my wife to ask me if there's going to be a big storm in February, because that's what she heard. I'm now calling on the help of the amwx brain trust. So...Bob, psu, Subtropics, WxUSAF, Wes, and the rest of our esteemed hobbyists and mets, what should I tell them? Maybe just stick with the Farmer's Almanac? Follow Bastardi and Berk on Twatter? The pattern improves but we're still fighting La Nina climo and big storms (12"or more) take quite a bit of luck and around here are pretty rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 If the LR GFS doesn't remind you of Feb/Mar 14-15 then I don't know what does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 19 minutes ago, usedtobe said: The pattern improves but we're still fighting La Nina climo and big storms (12"or more) take quite a bit of luck and around here are pretty rare. Totally agree Wes. A big storm pattern it is not. 2 key ingredients are missing (-NAO and/or 50/50). Amplified wave is likely the best scenario unless everything lines up perfect...which is soooo common. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 34 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Hmmm. The 12Z CMC is really close to an event west of the cities for early next week. The GFS isnt far away either. One to keep an eye on for sure. FWIW..Add the 12z ICON to that list of close calls for western zones. Great low track... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Looks like a nice rainstorm to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Looks like a nice rainstorm to me. If it was to be frozen at all it would be west of the cities with some elevation. It is going to be a rainstorm for sure. But those of us to the west do have a real shot to see a little snow out of it at the end. The track is good and the 850's really crash. It wouldnt be anything big obviously with the warmth ahead of time. But it is something for us snow starved western folks to keep an eye on at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 7 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Looks like a nice rainstorm to me. Best case for us corridor folks is a flip at the end. The biggest problem is that even with an ideal track, cold isn't established and it's filling in behind the low. Not a way we do well in our yards but western and elevation folks could see a period of accum snow if it breaks right. It's funny how the GFS (and CMC to an extent) had an aggressive trailing wave idea in the LR, then went flat and lame in the MR, and are now bringing back the idea as leads shorten. Euro has been very steady with the trailing wave idea. In this case it looks like the euro has been handling the progression the best. Either way I'm not particularly excited due to temps roasting in advance. A period of non accum snow would still be a pretty big win all things considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Yeah I'm forgetting that this forum isn't just the metro areas. A small change in track and maybe the far western folks who can't catch a break get a nice snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 14 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Looks like a nice rainstorm to me. But let's remember, we weren't going to be tracking anything until the first week of feb at the earliest...I'll take anything that's even a little close to the western zones at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Best case for us corridor folks is a flip at the end. The biggest problem is that even with an ideal track, cold isn't established and it's filling in behind the low. Not a way we do well in our yards but western and elevation folks could see a period of accum snow if it breaks right. It's funny how the GFS (and CMC to an extent) had an aggressive trailing wave idea in the LR, then went flat and lame in the MR, and are now bringing back the idea as leads shorten. Euro has been very steady with the trailing wave idea. In this case it looks like the euro has been handling the progression the best. Either way I'm not particularly excited due to temps roasting in advance. A period of non accum snow would still be a pretty big win all things considered. Maybe the EURO is the king of the new pattern!?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 11 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Maybe the EURO is the king of the new pattern!?!? We'll see how it goes but we're still in the thaw pattern until the first week of Feb so I don't really care much on which model is most accurate with my rainstorm. haha. In 10 days we can start judging the new pattern and how models do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 53 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If the LR GFS doesn't remind you of Feb/Mar 14-15 then I don't know what does. Didn't we have a 12 incher (or close) one of those years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Didn't we have a 12 incher (or close) one of those years? I had 18” from the Feb ‘14 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Didn't we have a 12 incher (or close) one of those years? 2/13/14 was the big event of the year. It was a 1-2 punch with warm air advection snow/lull/upper level low pass. There was mixing and sleet before the lull. I got 13" overnight and then another 3.25" with the upper level low but it was hours later. That event was more a byproduct of luck than it was pattern because the entire period of DJFM was progressive with no blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Just now, WxUSAF said: I had 18” from the Feb ‘14 storm. That may be the one I'm thinking of, then (I got about 15" IIRC) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Didn't we have a 12 incher (or close) one of those years?Some areas overperformed during the Feb 22nd storm in Feb '15. 10-14" bullseye near Leesburg IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Shocked nobody posted the CMC. Verrry close to paste bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 I just dug up my totals for 13/14. Big totals but only 2 notable large events. The bulk of the storms were pretty standard 1-6" range 11/27: T 12/08: 1.5" snow .25" sleet .20 Ice 12/10: 2.0" 12/14: .25" 01/02: 4.5" 01/21: 6.75" 01/28: .5" 02/09: .5" 02/13: 16.25" (13 front / 3.25 ull) 02/18: 1.0" 02/25: 1.25" 02/26: 2.50" 03/03: 5.50" 03/16: 9.50" 03/25: 3.00" 03/30: .7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 I wonder how the Feb 5-6 2010 storm happened.. was there a weak el nino? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Just now, WeathermanB said: I wonder how the Feb 5-6 2010 storm happened.. was there a weak el nino? No, holy grail of mod nino + -AO/NAO. The ultimate combo and don't come around very often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 GEFS made a decisive move towards storms approaching from the SW and attacking cold air. Some big events for the SE/MA that haven't been on any previous ens runs. The snow maps that hit the SE/MA are legit and not the typical crappy GEFS solutions treating mixed as snow. All of the action is d10-16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.