frd Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 4 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: You better hope it doesn't. if it ends up much colder than normal, then there is a good chance it ends up drier than normal too. I know, I do not want extreme cold = dry :-( I am with Bob, I prefer watching the changeover line and getting some precip for once. However, the part about really cold, I feel it might go into that, but not wall to wall, maybe a portion of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 14 minutes ago, frd said: Didn't you say eariler you thought even if the EPO ridge rolls too far East, it would retrograde back West later possibly, providing another prime window, granted that's way out there but interesting to say the least. I feel with the MJO in the right phase, at the right month, puts us in the game for a big event mid Feb. And, the way the MJO phases look to progress it would be possible the entire month of Feb. to wind up colder than normal, maybe by a lot. I generally don't look too far down the road. All these "uber cold Feb" calls coming out are just hope and hype. Not saying they are baseless just that I've been at this game a long time and I've seen countless 1 month or seasonal calls bust bigger than Dolly Parton. We already had a pretty stout -epo event with the trough centered too far east. Wouldn't surprise me if it happens again but it's way early to worry much. We still need to battle through cutter central over the next 10 days before clarity starts coming into focus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 Twitter weather loves the weeklies Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 And nobody cares.....Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 8 minutes ago, Ji said: And nobody cares..... Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk I'm more interested in the d12 gfs gradient storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 I'm more interested in the d12 gfs gradient storm. Hm thinks this new pattern change will have better stj. He referenced Feb 22 2014 lolSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 I'm more interested in the d12 gfs gradient storm. Lol in a week....we will only be 5 days away Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 14 minutes ago, Ji said: Lol in a week....we will only be 5 days away Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk The interesting thing is the ens and ops actually sped this flip up. Everything is now showing the meaningful change in place by Feb 3rd. We don't have much time to spare once we hit Feb so I'm sure I'm speaking for both of us when I say I'm a bit relieved to see the current progression. The -epo had been the big driver this winter. It showed up in November and didn't really let go until the last week or so. Having it roar back and maybe hang on for a month or longer makes a lot of sense. EPS looked like big cold inbound. Not exactly the best thing but certainly much better than where we are right now. Unless you like muddy ground and warm rain that is. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 16 minutes ago, Ji said: Lol in a week....we will only be 5 days away Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk But you have to like our chances...in a week we will be under a week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: But you have to like our chances...in a week we will be under a week Not only that but it should be a period and not a window once it gets going. We should have no problem racking up mutiple fails in a short period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 51 minutes ago, Ji said: And nobody cares..... Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk d as Luke Skywalker once said, "I care" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 Weeklies look pretty good. 4 straight weeks of winter begins in less than 2 weeks. The very short story is Feb/early march 14&15 redux. Control run drops 20-30 inches. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Weeklies look pretty good. 4 straight weeks of winter begins in less than 2 weeks. The very short story is Feb/early march 14&15 redux. Control run drops 20-30 inches. lol. My relative silence with the pattern is just the fact that all is going to plan. No sense repeating. Exactly what I said 5 days ago is how I feel now. Plus had a debate tournament, eagles game, and I'm still only maybe 75% recovered from the flu and pneumonia that had me in bad shape 10 days ago. Things look as good as they would at this range for the given dominant pattern drivers were dealing with. There is no way to know at range if a pattern will produce though. From 10+ days out the difference between a good pattern that snows and one that features near misses won't be apparent. So I'm waiting for specific threats to get in range then we can try to figure out our fate wrt snow. But I remain optimistic we get at least one good snowfall before this year is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Just give me MSP's never ending death band and we can call it a winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 58 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Weeklies look pretty good. 4 straight weeks of winter begins in less than 2 weeks. The very short story is Feb/early march 14&15 redux. Control run drops 20-30 inches. lol. Isn't that back to back control runs, maybe even more, with those totals. Love the pretty colors too. The general progression of the cold air mass, the pattern itself, and the gradient all seem to make snowfall oppurtunities greater this go around, not to mention wavelengths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Unfortunately for us, once we hit February sun angle begins to be a factor. Heck, I got a little color being out this weekend. The days of 1 inch having any sort of staying power are over in a couple weeks at out Lat as the sun angle is quickly rising as we speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 17 minutes ago, Subtropics said: Unfortunately for us, once we hit February sun angle begins to be a factor. Heck, I got a little color being out this weekend. The days of 1 inch having any sort of staying power are over in a couple weeks at out Lat as the sun angle is quickly rising as we speak. Fortunately for us, Feb has the best chance at a big storm by a big margin over DJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Really? Sun angle already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: Really? Sun angle already? He just likes to urinate in everyone’s breakfast cereal. Every month here has some issue. December = too early...January = too dry cold Feb = sun angle creeping up Mar = fluke storms only need apply. Apr = Hail Mary and it’s basically over...basically it can never snow here and almost never stick yet somehow it does 1 minute ago, yoda said: Really? Sun angle already? R Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Really? Sun angle already?@Ian started this year's agoSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 3 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Weeklies look pretty good. 4 straight weeks of winter begins in less than 2 weeks. The very short story is Feb/early march 14&15 redux. Control run drops 20-30 inches. lol. this was literally the first post i read today in the long range thread. i may not read another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Sun angle indeed is an issue but only for ground temps. In another words 'staying power' for fallen snow. In NC the Feb 15th sun angle is equivalent to that of Oct 15th in the Fall. But as Chill stated Feb is the snowiest month and sun angle has little bearing on winter storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 15 minutes ago, Ji said: @Ian started this year's ago Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Possibly, but this is kind of ridiculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Possibly, but this is kind of ridiculous We had weeks of snowcover after PD2. The whole thing is silly anyways. We spend weeks and weeks with no snowcover in Dec and Jan every single year. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 I’m still learning here so forgive my probably obvious observations...Sure is looking like significant pattern change ahead for Feb. AO index looks to tank by 2nd week of Feb. NAO index “as of now” looking to go potentially significantly negative. MJO is looking to enter colder phases 8,1,2. And PNA forecasting to go positive. I also hear EPO is favorable as well. If all go as planned, could be an epic Feb. How often do all the indexes align for us? Does this happen often? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 3 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: I’m still learning here so forgive my probably obvious observations...Sure is looking like significant pattern change ahead for Feb. AO index looks to tank by 2nd week of Feb. NAO index “as of now” looking to go potentially significantly negative. MJO is looking to enter colder phases 8,1,2. And PNA forecasting to go positive. I also hear EPO is favorable as well. If all go as planned, could be an epic Feb. How often do all the indexes align for us? Does this happen often? It could be big but we waste plenty of good patterns. All we can say is that we're back in the game. Luck is a wildcard in any pattern. It's a good look for below normal temps but it's still not a good blocked pattern with a southern connection. At least not what is showing right now. I wouldn't expect a crawling miller A. If we can pull off 10" at the airports it would be a pretty good comeback even though it would still be below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iFred Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 2 hours ago, Subtropics said: Unfortunately for us, once we hit February sun angle begins to be a factor. Heck, I got a little color being out this weekend. The days of 1 inch having any sort of staying power are over in a couple weeks at out Lat as the sun angle is quickly rising as we speak. You live at what, 37º or 38º, starting February at 34º and moving up to around 43º When I lived in Seattle at 47º, we had people b**ch and moan that anything short of an absolute blizzard would be pointless after February 15th because the sun was going to melt everything and winter was basically over. With that kind of attitude, we might as have well just thrown in the towel on December 28th because the sun angles were creeping up on us at a rapid clip. All of this hysteria for sun angles between 24º to 33º. You worry about sun angles when either the amount of daylight is over 12 hours or when you are over 45º, or you are amazing with on the fly insolation math. So fortunately for us, once we hit February sun angle still isn't a significant factor. Heck, I got a little color being out this weekend because thats what happens when you expose skin to UV. The days of 1 inch having any sort of staying power are over in a couple of fortnights at our Lat as the sun angle is quickly rising until June 21st as we speak. If Denver can have sticking snow in May, then you sure as hell can enjoy paste in February, if you are only looking at your sextant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 I want to go back to 18z... although 384 looks interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
astarck Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 1 hour ago, CaryWx said: In NC the Feb 15th sun angle is equivalent to that of Oct 15th in the Fall. I’m glad this is only loosely true in NC and not anywhere else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Pattern starts to improve after the 29th, have the feeling there will be a big storm this winter, we need to get the big Siberian high to relax and share the wealth a little, then maybe people whose names don't have all k's and v's can have winter too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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