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January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2


WinterWxLuvr

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4 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

You better hope it doesn't.  if it ends up much colder than normal, then there is a good chance it ends up drier than normal too.

I know, I do not want extreme cold = dry  :-(       I am with Bob, I prefer watching the changeover line and getting some precip for once. 

However, the part about really cold, I feel it might go into that, but not wall to wall, maybe a portion of the month.

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14 minutes ago, frd said:

Didn't you say eariler you thought even if the EPO ridge rolls too far East, it would retrograde back West later possibly, providing another prime window, granted that's way out there but interesting to say the least.     

I feel with the MJO in the right phase, at the right month, puts us in the game for a big event mid Feb. And,  the way the MJO phases look to progress it would be possible the entire month of Feb. to wind up colder than normal, maybe by a lot.  

 

I generally don't look too far down the road. All these "uber cold Feb" calls coming out are just hope and hype. Not saying they are baseless just that I've been at this game a long time and I've seen countless 1 month or seasonal calls bust bigger than Dolly Parton. 

We already had a pretty stout -epo event with the trough centered too far east. Wouldn't surprise me if it happens again but it's way early to worry much. We still need to battle through cutter central over the next 10 days before clarity starts coming into focus. 

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14 minutes ago, Ji said:

Lol in a week....we will only be 5 days away

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
 

The interesting thing is the ens and ops actually sped this flip up. Everything is now showing the meaningful change in place by Feb 3rd. We don't have much time to spare once we hit Feb so I'm sure I'm speaking for both of us when I say I'm a bit relieved to see the current progression.

 The -epo had been the big driver this winter. It showed up in November and didn't really let go until the last week or so. Having it roar back and maybe hang on for a month or longer makes a lot of sense. EPS looked like big cold inbound. Not exactly the best thing but certainly much better than where we are right now. Unless you like muddy ground and warm rain that is. Lol

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17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Weeklies look pretty good. 4 straight weeks of winter begins in less than 2 weeks. The very short story is Feb/early march 14&15 redux. 

Control run drops 20-30 inches. lol. 

My relative silence with the pattern is just the fact that all is going to plan. No sense repeating. Exactly what I said 5 days ago is how I feel now. Plus had a debate tournament, eagles game, and I'm still only maybe 75% recovered from the flu and pneumonia that had me in bad shape 10 days ago. 

Things look as good as they would at this range for the given dominant pattern drivers were dealing with. There is no way to know at range if a pattern will produce though. From 10+ days out the difference between a good pattern that snows and one that features near misses won't be apparent. So I'm waiting for specific threats to get in range then we can try to figure out our fate wrt snow. But I remain optimistic we get at least one good snowfall before this year is done. 

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58 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Weeklies look pretty good. 4 straight weeks of winter begins in less than 2 weeks. The very short story is Feb/early march 14&15 redux. 

Control run drops 20-30 inches. lol. 

Isn't that back to back control runs, maybe even more, with those totals. Love the pretty colors too.  The general progression of the cold air mass, the pattern itself, and the gradient all seem to make snowfall oppurtunities greater this go around, not to mention wavelengths.  

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Unfortunately for us, once we hit February sun angle begins to be a factor. Heck, I got a little color being out this weekend. The days of 1 inch having any sort of staying power are over in a couple weeks at out Lat as the sun angle is quickly rising as we speak.

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17 minutes ago, Subtropics said:

Unfortunately for us, once we hit February sun angle begins to be a factor. Heck, I got a little color being out this weekend. The days of 1 inch having any sort of staying power are over in a couple weeks at out Lat as the sun angle is quickly rising as we speak.

Fortunately for us, Feb has the best chance at a big storm by a big margin over DJ. 

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1 minute ago, yoda said:

Really?  Sun angle already?

He just likes to urinate in everyone’s breakfast cereal.  Every month here has some issue.  December = too early...January = too dry cold Feb = sun angle creeping up Mar = fluke storms only need apply.  Apr = Hail Mary and it’s basically over...basically it can never snow here and almost never stick yet somehow it does

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Really?  Sun angle already?

R

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3 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Weeklies look pretty good. 4 straight weeks of winter begins in less than 2 weeks. The very short story is Feb/early march 14&15 redux. 

Control run drops 20-30 inches. lol. 

this was literally the first post i read today in the long range thread.  i may not read another.

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Sun angle indeed is an issue but only for ground temps.  In another words 'staying power' for fallen snow.  In NC the Feb 15th sun angle is equivalent to that of Oct 15th in the Fall. 

But as Chill stated Feb is the snowiest month and sun angle has little bearing on winter storms

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I’m still learning here so forgive my probably obvious observations...Sure is looking like significant pattern change ahead for Feb.  AO index looks to tank by 2nd week of Feb. NAO index “as of now” looking to go potentially significantly negative.  MJO is looking to enter colder phases 8,1,2.  And PNA forecasting to go positive. I also hear EPO is favorable as well.  If all go as planned, could be an epic Feb.  How often do all the indexes align for us?  Does this happen often?  

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3 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

I’m still learning here so forgive my probably obvious observations...Sure is looking like significant pattern change ahead for Feb.  AO index looks to tank by 2nd week of Feb. NAO index “as of now” looking to go potentially significantly negative.  MJO is looking to enter colder phases 8,1,2.  And PNA forecasting to go positive. I also hear EPO is favorable as well.  If all go as planned, could be an epic Feb.  How often do all the indexes align for us?  Does this happen often?  

It could be big but we waste plenty of good patterns. All we can say is that we're back in the game. Luck is a wildcard in any pattern. 

It's a good look for below normal temps but it's still not a good blocked pattern with a southern connection. At least not what is showing right now. I wouldn't expect a crawling miller A. 

If we can pull off 10" at the airports it would be a pretty good comeback even though it would still be below normal. 

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2 hours ago, Subtropics said:

Unfortunately for us, once we hit February sun angle begins to be a factor. Heck, I got a little color being out this weekend. The days of 1 inch having any sort of staying power are over in a couple weeks at out Lat as the sun angle is quickly rising as we speak.

You live at what, 37º or 38º, starting February at 34º and moving up to around 43º

When I lived in Seattle at 47º, we had people b**ch and moan that anything short of an absolute blizzard would be pointless after February 15th because the sun was going to melt everything and winter was basically over. With that kind of attitude, we might as have well just thrown in the towel on December 28th because the sun angles were creeping up on us at a rapid clip. All of this hysteria for sun angles between 24º to 33º. You worry about sun angles when either the amount of daylight is over 12 hours or when you are over 45º, or you are amazing with on the fly insolation math.

So fortunately for us, once we hit February sun angle still isn't a significant factor. Heck, I got a little color being out this weekend because thats what happens when you expose skin to UV. The days of 1 inch having any sort of staying power are over in a couple of fortnights at our Lat as the sun angle is quickly rising until June 21st as we speak.

If Denver can have sticking snow in May, then you sure as hell can enjoy paste in February, if you are only looking at your sextant.

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