CAPE Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 14 minutes ago, WeathermanB said: If we get this pattern would that be more favorable for Jonas-like snowstorms or more boldly, the Feb. 2010 snows? Not into TWC's absurd winter storm naming with zero criteria, but as for Feb 2010 type snow I would say pretty unlikely. That was a Nino and a much different pattern overall than the upcoming one. Realistically what we should hope for in Feb-March is a few light to moderate events. Maybe a 6-10 type deal somewhere in the subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 24 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: ^ The EPS looks pretty impressive and is moving things along nicely with the pattern progression in the LR from it's previous runs. Hopefully it is more correct than the GEFS at this point, which looks to have taken a step back from yesterday's runs. The GEFS has been wrong on almost all of the long term shifts beyond Day 10 this winter so I fully expect it’s wrong again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Not into TWC's absurd winter storm naming with zero criteria, but as for Feb 2010 type snow I would say pretty unlikely. That was a Nino and a much different pattern overall than the upcoming one. Realistically what we should hope for in Feb-March is a few light to moderate events. Maybe a 6-10 type deal somewhere in the subforum. Yeah.. i was thinking that as the least we could get from Feb-March, but we'll see how it pans out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 50 minutes ago, WeathermanB said: If we get this pattern would that be more favorable for Jonas-like snowstorms or more boldly, the Feb. 2010 snows? Check out the met class thread. I just posted a bunch of pattern looks that deal with this. To get a 2010 type storm we would need nao blocking. I did post on what a pna driven snowy pattern could look like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 I'll post this over in the met class thread too but the early march 2015 storm is another example of how to snow in an epo driven pattern with no Atlantic help. I already posted some others. The key is having the cold centered to our north so the boundary can press south of us but we stay close enough that waves can ride along and affect us. That looks like the EPS. 3/15 worked by having a lead wave pull the front south then aother wave rode the boundary. That's a typical way to snow in an epo pattern with no Atlantic help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 Great posts Psu. Perfect illustrations on what can work with what is being advertised. We don't want big cold blasting into FL. I like what the eps and gefs are showing. A slow carve with the epo and pna ridges leaning on the west side of optimal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: The GEFS has been wrong on almost all of the long term shifts beyond Day 10 this winter so I fully expect it’s wrong again Gefs got the flip right during Christmas week. Eps was hanging the trough back while the gefs was more progressive. Tables are turned right now with the eps being more progressive and gefs being more stubborn. My guess is verification will be somewhere in between unless the gefs speeds things up over the next 3-4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Check out the met class thread. I just posted a bunch of pattern looks that deal with this. To get a 2010 type storm we would need nao blocking. I did post on what a pna driven snowy pattern could look like. Yea, miller a or blocked coastal pattern isn't even on the radar right now. Progressive flow with cold lurking works but med range is the earliest we can take anything seriously. We're a long way away from getting a feel for anything discreet. This week is going to be boring for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 These next couple weeks will get the “general public” thinking winter is over. Then the hammer drops again.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 Yea, miller a or blocked coastal pattern isn't even on the radar right now. Progressive flow with cold lurking works but med range is the earliest we can take anything seriously. We're a long way away from getting a feel for anything discreet. This week is going to be boring for a while. If EPS is right, we should start seeing some good fantasy hits.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 11 minutes ago, Superstorm said: If EPS is right, we should start seeing some good fantasy hits. . Yea, I'm personally pretty sick of that game. Return on investment has been ugly and that's being kind. Lol. We can keep an eye on the trailing wave with the front during the 28th-30th period. Longshot but within a range now that can trend better and be somewhat believable. Oddly the eps likes it more than the gefs. Still a long shot no matter how you look at it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, I'm personally pretty sick of that game. Return on investment has been ugly and that's being kind. Lol. We can keep an eye on the trailing wave with the front during the 28th-30th period. Longshot but within a range now that can trend better and be somewhat believable. Oddly the eps likes it more than the gefs. Still a long shot no matter how you look at it though. I think teleconnections have been better than ensembles at d7+ this winter. There has been hints at them moving in our favor, but it's not consistent yet where they're heading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 Yeah, this pattern could definitely turn cold. There is nothing in the Northeast Pacific that could hold ridging. So that potential energy heads right into Alaska and the north pole, displacing the polar vortex south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 I thought the 12z gfs ticked a little more in the right direction for the trailing wave deal. FL panhandle --> ATL --> C VA. Cold air will be iffy. But if we can get a little more separation for a stronger system and a bit further east track it could turn into a rain to snow situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, I'm personally pretty sick of that game. Return on investment has been ugly and that's being kind. Lol. We can keep an eye on the trailing wave with the front during the 28th-30th period. Longshot but within a range now that can trend better and be somewhat believable. Oddly the eps likes it more than the gefs. Still a long shot no matter how you look at it though. Yea we knew a progressive northern stream Nina pattern wasn't a year for tracking day 10 storms. Pattern recognition at best until inside day 5 then we can look at details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea we knew a progressive northern stream Nina pattern wasn't a year for tracking day 10 storms. Pattern recognition at best until inside day 5 then we can look at details. Gefs starting to light up d10-15. 12z was a nice run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 This to me looks like a gradient pattern setting up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 It would definitely be nice to get game on earlier rather than later into February. And extra nice if the cold air isn’t pushing to Aruba. At least December into January was a good reminder to people that record breaking cold isn’t the thing to root for when looking at winter progs if legit snow is one’s muse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Gefs starting to light up d10-15. 12z was a nice run. Things are going exactly how we wanted so far. The other side of the relax pattern is showing right on time and progressing. It's nice if that continues and we don't have to deal with the delay delay delay that often comes in a bad year. I know many are down on this winter. And the western crew has a right to be. But in general I'm not. Unless were in a moderate or modoki Nino I just assume we're not getting one of those 2-3 great winters a decade. The odds of pulling a 2014 is so remote it's not worth getting your hopes up. And if we throw out those couple of aberration winters a decade and set expectations on what the majority of others are like then this year is on track to be acceptable. If we had lucked into one 3-6" event during the last 3 weeks we would be having a very good year so far. But we have prime snow climo in front of us and if we manage to pull off just one solid region wide event and tack on a few small stat padders then this ends up as well as we had any right to expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 All 3 globals are real close to the following wave next week ending as snow. Cmc and euro both flip to snow as far east as FDK. Prob won't be a big deal no matter how it breaks but would be nice to get a legit period of heavy snow on the tail end. Even snow TV sounds good to me right now. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Things are going exactly how we wanted so far. The other side of the relax pattern is showing right on time and progressing. It's nice if that continues and we don't have to deal with the delay delay delay that often comes in a bad year. I know many are down on this winter. And the western crew has a right to be. But in general I'm not. Unless were in a moderate or modoki Nino I just assume we're not getting one of those 2-3 great winters a decade. The odds of pulling a 2014 is so remote it's not worth getting your hopes up. And if we throw out those couple of aberration winters a decade and set expectations on what the majority of others are like then this year is on track to be acceptable. If we had lucked into one 3-6" event during the last 3 weeks we would be having a very good year so far. But we have prime snow climo in front of us and if we manage to pull off just one solid region wide event and tack on a few small stat padders then this ends up as well as we had any right to expect. And really, in talking about this decade...Is it accurate to say that we have had more storms that hit 12" (that's my personal happy mark for snow ) than we did in the previous two decades? Seems like we've rattled off a few more of those than usual this decade! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowsux Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 If February does indeed wind up featuring a prolonged period of well below average temperatures in the east like December and this month have had, then this will truly go down in the books as a blockbuster winter as far as temperatures go. The only fly in the ointment is that you're never gonna have a clear, confident idea of what lies ahead for the latter portion of winter on January 21st of any year. That's because every year it's the same broken record right now from most of the pro long-range mets. Remember last year's "American Pie February" we were supposed to have? Or how 'bout "December to Remember"? How can you take someone seriously after monumental fails like that? Their biases, regardless of what motivates them, are pretty obvious. Dig deep enough for cold signals in the dead of winter and you'll find them. Doesn't mean they're gonna come to fruition verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 Not to be taken verbatim, obviously but the euro control shows the wavy front idea. Riding the boundary rather than deep cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 February would have to be very cold and consistently so for most of the month to tilt this winter to a cold one. Can't see it being recalled as a blockbuster for cold regardless of how it ends. December was within a half-degree to a degree of normal region-wide, in spite of two (non-consecutive) below-normal weeks. The first week of January saw historic cold, but when the month ends we may again fall about where December did. If anything I suspect this winter will be remembered like most Ninas for its variable temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 The 2 week cold period was rare and impressive. 10"+ thick ice on the skating pond is by far the thickest I've ever seen. Other than that this winter sucks. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 Random query (I only have been here since August of 2009 so my experience is only since then): since january 1, 2000, have we had more area-wide 12+ inch storms than area-wide 6-10 inch storms? i suspect we have... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 December snow was a welcome addition for sure. 2 week stretch of cold was of course pretty amazing, but underwhelming. Seem's like we're on schedule for a typical La Nina winter, so I'm not really complaining too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 Not to mention that...unless there's some unelected torch next month...those "milder than usual" predictions are gonna go straight in the toilet!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 GFS slower and more separation with the trailing wave....good trends to possibly see some flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 I really like what the gfs is shifting towards next weekend. Nice move with the mid and upper levels.... would be pretty sweet to steal something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.