Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 @Ji 12z EPS speeding up the flip to cold north america/east. Over half have us back into winter temps by the 3rd-4th. Even has a couple waves running the boundary dropping some snow d9-10. Longshot obviously on the d9-10 thing but it looks like the early Feb flip is speeding up instead of slowing down. ETA: euro control has most of north america in an icebox by the 4th. Even hits us with a frontal wave/snow event d13ish. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 1 hour ago, Jandurin said: 2 hours ago, BristowWx said: Good advice. Booked a family Disney trip for next week. Last minute good deal. What the heck Figure won’t miss anyhting here. I'll see you there Good call sir. Might as well go to straight tropical weather, throw on some shorts, and make family happy too. Being home would mean solid seasonal depression. You’ll still check the forum between 120 minute wait times on rides. I know I will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: @Ji 12z EPS speeding up the flip to cold north america/east. Over half have us back into winter temps by the 3rd-4th. Even has a couple waves running the boundary dropping some snow d9-10. Longshot obviously but it looks like the early Feb flip is speeding up instead of slowing down. Awesome! Thanks Bob. This is the eye of winter. Calm for a bit then the other side roars in. I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 @Bob Chill Saw that too. Seems like temperature mean is weighted by a ton of torches during that time (kind of like the misleading mean temperature on Dec 25th due to 1/3 of the members showing torch and the others showing just colder than normal, but not by a lot). EPS control does that too. Trend should hopefully be our friend here. Base state of winter does seem to want to be cold, and so I wonder if this trend keeps on continuing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 Just now, BristowWx said: Awesome! Thanks Bob. This is the eye of winter. Calm for a bit then the other side roars in. I guess. At least the flip first advertised with the euro/cfs weeklies is actually showing up with regular ens. And the timing is spot on. All we can ask for honestly. Encouraging... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: I feel pretty good too and pretty much have identical thoughts. The only reason we aren't climo+ is some bad luck. There hasn't been a dearth of opportunities. Our number was never really called. Totally agree that the early season base state will re-emerge and probably last 3 weeks or more. Could extend right into early March if that last couple euro weeklies are picking up the right things. Not saying anything you don't already know but the same "base state" in December does not = same results in Feb. Feb is prime for larger storms for a lot of reasons. We just need to be in the game and hope multiple ops present themselves. If so, I highly doubt we walk away without at least one decent event. Maybe more if our number is called and the UL pattern lines us up. Until then we watch and wait and get outside. 50 degrees feels like 70 now. lol Stop reading my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 38 minutes ago, BristowWx said: It is? I had no idea. +2. Who wins the Super Bowl? Redskins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 Basically echoes what we all saw on the 12z EPS, but I'll drop it here because it basically summarizes what Mid Feb is heading towards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 38 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: @Ji 12z EPS speeding up the flip to cold north america/east. Over half have us back into winter temps by the 3rd-4th. Even has a couple waves running the boundary dropping some snow d9-10. Longshot obviously on the d9-10 thing but it looks like the early Feb flip is speeding up instead of slowing down. ETA: euro control has most of north america in an icebox by the 4th. Even hits us with a frontal wave/snow event d13ish. lol GFS keeps the Siberea block much further west.. Euro/EPS bring it far enough east to get some cold into North America. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Basically echoes what we all saw on the 12z EPS, but I'll drop it here because it basically summarizes what Mid Feb is heading towards. Good, now we just have to get a big snowstorm to follow suit for the mid-atlantic. Wouldn't be surprised if we get an Octavia-like winter storm in 2018, like Feb. 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 Just now, WeathermanB said: Good, now we just have to get a big snowstorm to follow suit for the mid-atlantic. Wouldn't be surprised if we get an Octavia-like winter storm in 2018, like Feb. 2015. Octavia? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: Octavia? back from feb. 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 45 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Basically echoes what we all saw on the 12z EPS, but I'll drop it here because it basically summarizes what Mid Feb is heading towards. That is basically the December 9th pattern to a T. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: @Ji 12z EPS speeding up the flip to cold north america/east. Over half have us back into winter temps by the 3rd-4th. Even has a couple waves running the boundary dropping some snow d9-10. Longshot obviously on the d9-10 thing but it looks like the early Feb flip is speeding up instead of slowing down. ETA: euro control has most of north america in an icebox by the 4th. Even hits us with a frontal wave/snow event d13ish. lol Teleconnection and MJO looks continue to improve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 20, 2018 Share Posted January 20, 2018 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: That is basically the December 9th pattern to a T. If this one doesn’t include a split flow with the southern jet involved, I’ll take a hard pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 3 hours ago, Cobalt said: Basically echoes what we all saw on the 12z EPS, but I'll drop it here because it basically summarizes what Mid Feb is heading towards. I'll just say... pattern is too unstable to have a sustained GOA ridge right now. This is where Low's hit friction on the western mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 55 minutes ago, Scraff said: If this one doesn’t include a split flow with the southern jet involved, I’ll take a hard pass. I kinda like what the ensembles are showing for the transition first week of Feb. Doesn't look like a massive cold hp is going to press in and shut off precip in a single swoop. Looks more like a progressive carving of a trough with highs sliding across to our north. Unlike Dec when cold highs plunged into MO and TN. If it goes down like the early looks we're starting to see then I can envision waking the line with boundaries. That works here. Waves approaching from the SW. No block so wound up stuff is thread the needle but smaller or even moderate events can make a run at us. We don't want or need an icebox. I'd much rather worry about ptype instead of no precip. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I kinda like what the ensembles are showing for the transition first week of Feb. Doesn't look like a massive cold hp is going to press in and shut off precip in a single swoop. Looks more like a progressive carving of a trough with highs sliding across to our north. Unlike Dec when cold highs plunged into MO and TN. If it goes down like the early looks we're starting to see then I can envision waking the line with boundaries. That works here. Waves approaching from the SW. No block so wound up stuff is thread the needle but smaller or even moderate events can make a run at us. We don't want or need an icebox. I'd much rather worry about ptype instead of no precip. Lol Yes agreed but we will need below average temps the further into Feb we go. and then March we really need some negative departures so I somewhat disagree that we don’t need an ice box. We may not need an icebox on top of us but we need one real close by . And then take our chances with precip. Just my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I kinda like what the ensembles are showing for the transition first week of Feb. Doesn't look like a massive cold hp is going to press in and shut off precip in a single swoop. Looks more like a progressive carving of a trough with highs sliding across to our north. Unlike Dec when cold highs plunged into MO and TN. If it goes down like the early looks we're starting to see then I can envision waking the line with boundaries. That works here. Waves approaching from the SW. No block so wound up stuff is thread the needle but smaller or even moderate events can make a run at us. We don't want or need an icebox. I'd much rather worry about ptype instead of no precip. Lol I love your ability to walk most of us back off the ledge every winter. I’m with you though. Give us precip and roll the dice! Hope we are all back tracking again very soon. Seems like we’re heading that way. Got a good feeling... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 It's all relative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 Yeah, there is pretty good arctic blocking still at 96hr. My posts are wide ranged but this is a cold time for the next 7 days. What's interesting is when the pattern relaxes it shoots right up into the 60s in the middle of Winter... no forcing just relaxation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2018 Author Share Posted January 21, 2018 57 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I kinda like what the ensembles are showing for the transition first week of Feb. Doesn't look like a massive cold hp is going to press in and shut off precip in a single swoop. Looks more like a progressive carving of a trough with highs sliding across to our north. Unlike Dec when cold highs plunged into MO and TN. If it goes down like the early looks we're starting to see then I can envision waking the line with boundaries. That works here. Waves approaching from the SW. No block so wound up stuff is thread the needle but smaller or even moderate events can make a run at us. We don't want or need an icebox. I'd much rather worry about ptype instead of no precip. Lol Now you’re singing my tune. LOL Keep up the good work Bob. Haven’t posted much, but certainly have been reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 I thought this was a good time to look at some patterns that lead to snow and see what we should look for in the long range as the pattern flip approaches to get a better result next time. I posted it to the met class thread. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/32802-mid-atlantic-met-class-thread/?do=findComment&comment=4791402 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Now you’re singing my tune. LOL Keep up the good work Bob. Haven’t posted much, but certainly have been reading. We should have 2 decent rain events on tap the next 10 days. Lol. The talk about a pattern repeat back to the flip in late December might bring some tension with it. For now is doesnt look like a dry shutout this go around. Hopefully we start seeing a discrete window come into focus. Right now the most detailed we can get is that winter might be returning in 2 weeks. I hope Ji makes it until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 3 hours ago, BristowWx said: Yes agreed but we will need below average temps the further into Feb we go. and then March we really need some negative departures so I somewhat disagree that we don’t need an ice box. We may not need an icebox on top of us but we need one real close by . And then take our chances with precip. Just my opinion As long as the epo ridge hangs around we can do fine right into mid March without uber cold. March 13 almost pasted us with a pretty lame air mass. Deflect the pac jet away from blasting face first into the coast and temps should be workable with a hp to the north. Cold dry powder doesnt come easy in March but serviceable isn't that far off of normal climo. It's more common and easier to snow the first 2 weeks of march than it is the first 2 weeks of Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 8 hours ago, Bob Chill said: As long as the epo ridge hangs around we can do fine right into mid March without uber cold. March 13 almost pasted us with a pretty lame air mass. Deflect the pac jet away from blasting face first into the coast and temps should be workable with a hp to the north. Cold dry powder doesnt come easy in March but serviceable isn't that far off of normal climo. It's more common and easier to snow the first 2 weeks of march than it is the first 2 weeks of Dec. The average high in march is misleading for snow purposes. I hear people saying "we need a -20 departure". The mean high is 50+ because on a nice day without an arctic airmass given the sun that time of year it will get into the mid 40s easy. But if the dewpoint is 20 add precipitation and it would be 30 and snowing. The mean is even higher because in any "torch pattern" in march the temp will spike into the 60s and 70s. Yes during the storm we need a significant negative departure but ensemble guidance isn't going to see that at range because of timing differences and members that don't have a storm. So showing a mean with only -5 departures to say it's not going to be cold enough is bunk. Now keeping snow on the ground for more then a hot second in march is hard and requires a true negative anamoly so if people want to cry about that then go ahead. Of course I prefer snow in December and January more when it can stick around but I'll take it anytime and I can't control when it comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 Seems like we're getting into range on a return to winter. GEFS not as enthusiastic as the EPS on getting cold back into our area within range, but looks fairly close to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 ^ The EPS looks pretty impressive and is moving things along nicely with the pattern progression in the LR from it's previous runs. Hopefully it is more correct than the GEFS at this point, which looks to have taken a step back from yesterday's runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: The average high in march is misleading for snow purposes. I hear people saying "we need a -20 departure". The mean high is 50+ because on a nice day without an arctic airmass given the sun that time of year it will get into the mid 40s easy. But if the dewpoint is 20 add precipitation and it would be 30 and snowing. The mean is even higher because in any "torch pattern" in march the temp will spike into the 60s and 70s. Yes during the storm we need a significant negative departure but ensemble guidance isn't going to see that at range because of timing differences and members that don't have a storm. So showing a mean with only -5 departures to say it's not going to be cold enough is bunk. Now keeping snow on the ground for more then a hot second in march is hard and requires a true negative anamoly so if people want to cry about that then go ahead. Of course I prefer snow in December and January more when it can stick around but I'll take it anytime and I can't control when it comes. Good post. For those who like to keep snow on the ground for a few days in March, well the good news is the required anomalous cold to achieve that is doable with a very favorable NPAC and the trop PV dislodged southward, similar to 13-14 and 14-15. Decent chance that is where the pattern is heading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 If we get this pattern would that be more favorable for Jonas-like snowstorms or more boldly, the Feb. 2010 snows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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