Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: If you go to 42hrs 500mb map on gfs and hit prev. Run twice, you can see the gfs moving the base of the trough west https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=eus&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2018011312&fh=42 Kicker coming in off the pac is weaker/slower too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Interstate said: I know someone said the GFS trended more like the Euro at 6z. I do not see that at all. The GFS has been pretty much set in it ways at the H5 level more or less for the last 6 runs. Never did it have a closed off low like the yesterday 12z Euro. If anything the Euro moved towards the GFS. Yes it did, if you drew an intermediate contour the 12Z GFS had one but developed it further east than the Euro. Someone actually had a plot of it on this thread yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: When the coastal grazes the delmarva and not even a trace makes it west of the bay then mitch should be off the rails. He has the flu so it might be incoherent. Today's the day for cheap shots. I'm shaking so much from the chills, I can barely type. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Today's the day for cheap shots. I'm shaking so much from the chills, I can barely type. Lol Feel better man. Laugh a little if you can Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Feel better man. Laugh a little if you can I haven't shaken this much since they gave me the check at Ruth Chris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Today's the day for cheap shots. I'm shaking so much from the chills, I can barely type. Lol Feel better Mitch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 With the gfs slowing down, it should give more time for moisture transport ne from Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Front looks good again at 84... I'd love an easy 1-3" without worrying about anything trying to ride up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 IMprovements at both 500 mb and the surface by 84 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 @Maestrobjwa assuming things will trend towards a northern stream dominant primarily northeast of us storm is a good bet in a Nina. Problem is not all will go down that way. And it's hard to predict from range when the exception will be. From range the bomb looked like it would start as a gulf induced wave then climb the coast. As soon as it morphed into a late developing off the coast system I lost interest. But there was no way to know for sure that would happen. So the best advice I have is we should all know what the odds are and what the pattern favors but persistence forecasting is lazy and will eventually get you burned badly when the exception comes. And tracking is fun so spare me the "why are we doing this to ourselves it won't happen" mantra that inevitably will start up if we get another fail or two. I like doing it. That's why. As for 1996 it was an off the charts -nao that buckled the glow so much upstream that northern dominant could work out for us. Essentially it shifted the trough axis southwest enough that we because eastern New England for one year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 I liked the gfs. Keep juicing/slowing the front and we get a legit advisory snow on frozen ground. Dec 9th deal didn't stick on my street. Next week's will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Maestrobjwa assuming things will trend towards a northern stream dominant primarily northeast of us storm is a good bet in a Nina. Problem is not all will go down that way. And it's hard to predict from range when the exception will be. From range the bomb looked like it would start as a gulf induced wave then climb the coast. As soon as it morphed into a late developing off the coast system I lost interest. But there was no way to know for sure that would happen. So the best advice I have is we should all know what the odds are and what the pattern favors but persistence forecasting is lazy and will eventually get you burned badly when the exception comes. And tracking is fun so spare me the "why are we doing this to ourselves it won't happen" mantra that inevitably will start up if we get another fail or two. I like doing it. That's why. As for 1996 it was an off the charts -nao that buckled the glow so much upstream that northern dominant could work out for us. Essentially it shifted the trough axis southwest enough that we because eastern New England for one year. By 16th of february thee NAO was negative but not greatly so, The AO was negative. Of course, i's supposed to go negative right abouth the time of this system passes by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 I'm going to split this into two parts because I think some are talking about the frontal snow and others the coastal prospects. I'm only interested in the coastal so I'll start there. I don't see any improvement this run and if anything it was a further degradation since the most supportive gfs run 12z yesterday. The trough continues to dig less and the gfs is trending towards splitting the energy between a system off New England and the southeast. This run isn't even close to the cutoff south of us idea from yesterday. Gfs can be stubborn but it's moving the wrong way and the euro trended that way last night also. I felt way better about it this time yesterday. The overrunning idea looks fine. I'm not downing it. And I'll gladly take it. But I'm uninterested in tracking a frontal band with no upside potential that will drop between a car topper and 3" max but there is no way guidance will nail that until short term anyways. In short I'm fine with it but it doesn't excite me from a tracking perspectuve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I liked the gfs. Keep juicing/slowing the front and we get a legit advisory snow on frozen ground. Dec 9th deal didn't stick on my street. Next week's will. That's part of the reason why I siad this one has the most potential of any based on the 500h progs from yesterday. Now I'm afraid last night's Euro is the upper end of what is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 16 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Yes sir ..we take any positive step Though the trough was broader then the 06Z I thought the dig and axis was better up to 84 hr. This was reflected on the surface with better pressure falls to the south and a more North/south oriented boundary set up for any possible coastal. Unfortunately the broader trough wrecked the setup after 84 hr. eta: Just wanted to mention that we are still far from a solution on the GFS that puts us in the game for the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 5 minutes ago, usedtobe said: By 16th of february thee NAO was negative but not greatly so, The AO was negative. Of course, i's supposed to go negative right abouth the time of this system passes by. Yea the nao was more negative during the early winter then was more up and down later on. I think feb things just tend to work out better for us too without needing as much help. Shorter wavelengths help sometimes. But I'm not saying we need a record nao to snow I meant it more as a general reason 96 worked out so well vs most other ninas. Not about any specific storm or this one. By the raw numbers I compiled of ninas I'm pretty sure it was the most -nao and maybe AO also. The Pacific was mostly non hostile too. Everything came together that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 I wish I saw the improvement others seem to. I'm just stuck on wanting this back.... vs what we have now Ive only seen a slow bleed away from the look that had me interested yesterday the last 3 runs. One of the things that had me thinking this had potential was for a brief moment we had the gfs and euro on the same page. Not as the surface but that didn't bother me. They were on the same page and heading in the right direction. We since have lost the gfs. So now we're back to euro vs all. That's hasn't been a good bet lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 GGEM says turn off the lights and close the shades for the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I wish I saw the improvement others seem to. I'm just stuck on wanting this back.... vs what we have now Ive only seen a slow bleed away from the look that had me interested yesterday the last 3 runs. One of the things that had me thinking this had potential was for a brief moment we had the gfs and euro on the same page. Not as the surface but that didn't bother me. They were on the same page and heading in the right direction. We since have lost the gfs. So now we're back to euro vs all. That's hasn't been a good bet lately. and even the Euro's 500h is not as good as yesterday's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, usedtobe said: and even the Euro's 500h is not as good as yesterday's. Both of those runs are still too positively tilted to be overly helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Ggem trended the wrong way too and it sucked to begin with. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 It's over. Let's talk high temps next weekend. Can we hit 70? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 The 12Z CMC through the end of its run is flat, warm, and boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, usedtobe said: and even the Euro's 500h is not as good as yesterday's. Yea it's going the wrong way since 12z yesterday on all guidance. Im not trying to be a downer but it's what I see. Also regarding the frontal snow a trend towards a more positively tilted trough isn't good for that either. If you really want that to juice up you need the flow to be backing and this get the flow crossing the front into the cold air. If this continues to trend the other way that part is in jeopardy also. Some snow seems likely but the 3-4" ideas being floated are only possible with a more negative trough. It's not a coincidence that the euro was best with both. We could get a nice frontal wave without a coastal if the trough remained negative but didn't close off and simply slowly swung through. But it's trending away from that also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Just now, Quasievil said: The 12Z CMC through the end of its run is flat, warm, and boring. I can extrapolate a day 12 threat off it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 As bob predicted....a disastrous 12z run..Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: I can extrapolate a day 12 threat off it. Yeah but should you? It's like torture since we know it won't verify. Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Yea it's going the wrong way since 12z yesterday on all guidance. Im not trying to be a downer but it's what I see. Also regarding the frontal snow a trend towards a more positively tilted trough isn't good for that either. If you really want that to juice up you need the flow to be backing and this get the flow crossing the front into the cold air. If this continues to trend the other way that part is in jeopardy also. Some snow seems likely but the 3-4" ideas being floated are only possible with a more negative trough. It's not a coincidence that the euro was best with both. We could get a nice frontal wave without a coastal if the trough remained negative but didn't close off and simply slowly swung through. But it's trending away from that also. I know people have accused you over the years of being a downer. You're not, especially now. The looks on the models at 12Z are awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 We will end up getting a trace next week when it's all said and done . And what happened to the frozen the euro has for us this morning lolSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: We will end up getting a trace next week when it's all said and done . And what happened to the frozen the euro has for us this morning lol Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk If by frozen you mean, Maine, you're right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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