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January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2


WinterWxLuvr

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8 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Getting things right again is going to be a slow process, but the pattern appears to be moving in the right direction on the Pac side days 10-15. Looking at the EPS, big WPO ridge building, and the trop PV is strengthening and moving into position around Hudson Bay. Meanwhile +heights are building into GOA, with lower heights towards the Aleutians. Roll that forward, and we should see a +PNA/-EPO develop in early-mid Feb(like the weeklies are suggesting). No idea what to expect in the NA, but not counting on much NAO help at this point.

Really beginning to see some movement towards a more favorable pattern towards the end of the ensemble runs now.

GEFS even looks like its trying to develop some NA blocking (lol)

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_65.thumb.png.a502542f82af10af51e81885e61ea379.png

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Several of us have mentioned in the last week or so that the models were hinting at a flip in the NPAC. Well the overnight runs in the extended I believe do show the lead into that possible flip. 

Below we have the verification for Dec 4th which is shortly before we saw a flip to the long duration strong +PNA/-EPO combo. Now the features I want you to notice are the higher heights towards the pole (B) with ridging (C) extending towards it up off the west coast and into Alaska. We also have a portion of the PV (D) located in north central Canada with troughing (E) extending from it down into the southwest. The key feature here is the strong PV in the NPAC (A) which I believe initiates the flip. What we have seen in the days before this snapshot below is that the pv begins elongating and shifting eastward from the western Pacific where it was originally situated to where we have it now into the Aleutians. This in turn is forcing the ridging/higher heights (C) northward as it gets squeezed by the trough into the southwest. 

Verification.thumb.gif.0ab97eef3c3167c0a29a154b1fec64fd.gif

 

Now compare the above to what we see below on the 15 day EPS. Remarkable similarities between both maps. We again see the higher heights over the pole (B) with a pv (D) located to the south in NCentral Canada. We also see the ridging (C) off the west coast building northward into Alaska with a trough (E) into the southwest. The initiating feature once again is the PV (A) as we have seen it elongate and shift eastward into the Aleutians.  

EPS.gif.383a1bce805094c198db1d96e30878aa.gif

 

Not to be outdone the GEFS at day 15 is almost spot on with the features on both maps above and it too shifts the NPAC pv eastward into the Aleutians.. About the only difference we see is it is a little weaker and more progressive with the SW trough so we are not seeing the ridging/higher heights building to the extent that we saw on the previous two examples.

GEFS.gif.89c1246f8164ed9d578eb2ed243295e4.gif

 

Now one other thing I want to bring up is the eastern half of the globe on the maps below. When taking into account smoothing we see occur on the extended ensembles, which lose the finer details especially at the mid latitudes, and the fact that there are some slight timing issues with some of the features, the similarities match up extremely well. I can never recall having one model run match up so well in the N-Hemisphere to a previous verified time. And yet here we have two and both timed at 15 days to boot. 

 

And here we have what verified two days later, Dec 6. The NPAC has flipped and we begin the long duration +PNA/-EPO. We also see the pv drop southward into southern Canada and the higher heights in the east forced into the NAO domain where we then saw a predominately -NAO for roughly a week. For those that can recall I was very high going into this period even considering climo for early December. We in fact did see a roughly 9/10 day stretch where some made out fairly well for so early in the season. The one thing that did limit our potential was that we saw the pv/associated mean trough located  a little too far to the east for our region. 

Give me this and the following 10 days we saw, with better climo and the pv/trough located a little farther to the west and I think we do much better then what we saw in early December. Who knows. Maybe even WOOF worthy.

Verification2dayslater.thumb.gif.92905fcde5aee8c2f0bffc5968265867.gif

 

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2 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Looking at 6z, the drought may put us in the 60s for an extended period of time. 

How are you seeing that? I take it everyone else is wrong about the pattern becoming more favorable for cold in a couple weeks?

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32 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Great write up as usual @showme. I just hope the pattern change doesn't get pushed back as we see lot of times with the models rushing things. 

 

Looks like everything is happening right on time. First week of Feb transition and what looks to be pretty impressive cold building in our source region as well. Hopefully it's one of those powerful front types of flips where we go from shutout to in the game immediately and not a drawn out step down. My guess is powerful and abrupt. 

Feb 15 is an extreme example of how our fortunes can change on a dime. I'd be totally good with a repeat. Lol

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10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Looks like everything is happening right on time. First week of Feb transition and what looks to be pretty impressive cold building in our source region as well. Hopefully it's one of those powerful front types of flips where we go from shutout to in the game immediately and not a drawn out step down. My guess is powerful and abrupt. 

Feb 15 is an extreme example of how our fortunes can change on a dime. I'd be totally good with a repeat. Lol

Let's hope by March 15th we are burnt out from late night  tracking and measuring our snow and ready for Spring ...lol

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36 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Looks like everything is happening right on time. First week of Feb transition and what looks to be pretty impressive cold building in our source region as well. Hopefully it's one of those powerful front types of flips where we go from shutout to in the game immediately and not a drawn out step down. My guess is powerful and abrupt. 

Feb 15 is an extreme example of how our fortunes can change on a dime. I'd be totally good with a repeat. Lol

sounds good till you realize that there are 18 days to February 7th. We need to be at least tracking something by next weekend or I am going on a trolling spree like we havent seen since 2012-13

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3 minutes ago, Ji said:

sounds good till you realize that there are 18 days to February 7th. We need to be at least tracking something by next weekend or I am going on a trolling spree like we havent seen since 2012-13

Go ahead and put your keyboard in a timelock safe. There may be some sort of random fantasy storm on the radar by next weekend but we are at the frontside of the worst longwave pattern of winter. Acceptance is step 1. 

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Just now, Ji said:

sounds good till you realize that there are 18 days to February 7th. We need to be at least tracking something by next weekend or I am going on a trolling spree like we havent seen since 2012-13

Why?  18 days will come and go and we will still be here. Then you can start trolling over the next storm fail. Besides it won't be 18 days if nothing. You know there will be some fluke op run that shows something and people will take it too seriously because why not. And probably in 3-5 days the other side will show itself and we will start tracking the pattern change. Then by day 10 we might have a specific threat to track. This is going to be the worst part of winter but your exaggerating as usual. Love you for it though. Don't think I'm picking on you. You serve a role and I enjoy it. 

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Why?  18 days will come and go and we will still be here. Then you can start trolling over the next storm fail. Besides it won't be 18 days if nothing. You know there will be some fluke op run that shows something and people will take it too seriously because why not. And probably in 3-5 days the other side will show itself and we will start tracking the pattern change. Then by day 10 we might have a specific threat to track. This is going to be the worst part of winter but your exaggerating as usual. Love you for it though. Don't think I'm picking on you. You serve a role and I enjoy it. 

Let's not forget the 48 hour period somewhere around day 7-8 where models suddenly decide to pull the rug from under our feet and say, "You can forget your return to cold, winter pattern... We are going straight into summer!"  Only to go back to the original idea of a sweet winter pattern 48 hours later.  There will be much crying and gnashing of teeth for those 48 hours.

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29 minutes ago, gopper said:

Let's not forget the 48 hour period somewhere around day 7-8 where models suddenly decide to pull the rug from under our feet and say, "You can forget your return to cold, winter pattern... We are going straight into summer!"  Only to go back to the original idea of a sweet winter pattern 48 hours later.  There will be much crying and gnashing of teeth for those 48 hours.

oh yea lol. cant wait for all the delayed but not denied stuff that is coming when the pattern change gets pushed to Feb 20

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:

the OP models looks horrendous. GFS snowfall map through 16 days is probably a 0.0 but you can see by Feb 5...we will be in good shape

 

gfs_z500a_namer_53.png

Don't worry the cold is coming back.. along with a +NAO. 

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22 minutes ago, Ji said:

the OP models looks horrendous. GFS snowfall map through 16 days is probably a 0.0 but you can see by Feb 5...we will be in good shape

 

gfs_z500a_namer_53.png

The good thing is we should be breaking back into fantasy snow over the next couple days. Should keep you happy in between lawn mows. 

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19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Feb 15 redux but starts on the 6th instead of Vday. Mark your calendar and pull the blinds in the mean time. 

We had big cold in Nov which IMO set the stage for winter. We will get at least one more good polar plunge under our belts. Maybe more. The larger wavelengths of the upcoming warm season are probably more important for us in a year like this than other things.. but we really haven't seen any great patterns either, which might be an issue we can't quite shake.  

I still feel relatively fine about the finale for now... I suspect we can get a decent (not yuge but solid) storm plus some nickel and dimes to help pad. 

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After you live here for a while I think you just have to learn to accept what you get and enjoy it. There are still far too many people into this stuff that have silly expectations. 

IMO this has already been a considerably better winter than some of the recent ones with low totals. Small (to tiny) events but a number of days waking up to snow on the ground instead of brown. Those are victories for us even if you can still see the grass. 

We still have plenty of time even knowing we kill two weeks or so (and could still fluke into something).

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57 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said:

It should be game on after Feb 10- until then enjoy the warm weather! If it's going to be warm everyone should go out and enjoy it.

Good advice.  Booked a family Disney trip for next week.  Last minute good deal.  What the heck Figure won’t miss anyhting here.  

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1 hour ago, Ian said:

We had big cold in Nov which IMO set the stage for winter. We will get at least one more good polar plunge under our belts. Maybe more. The larger wavelengths of the upcoming warm season are probably more important for us in a year like this than other things.. but we really haven't seen any great patterns either, which might be an issue we can't quite shake.  

I still feel relatively fine about the finale for now... I suspect we can get a decent (not yuge but solid) storm plus some nickel and dimes to help pad. 

I feel pretty good too and pretty much have identical thoughts. The only reason we aren't climo+ is some bad luck. There hasn't been a dearth of opportunities. Our number was never really called. Totally agree that the early season base state will re-emerge and probably last 3 weeks or more. Could extend right into early March if that last couple euro weeklies are picking up the right things. 

Not saying anything you don't already know but the same "base state" in December does not = same results in Feb. Feb is prime for larger storms for a lot of reasons. We just need to be in the game and hope multiple ops present themselves. If so, I highly doubt we walk away without at least one decent event. Maybe more if our number is called and the UL pattern lines us up. Until then we watch and wait and get outside. 50 degrees feels like 70 now. lol

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