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January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2


WinterWxLuvr

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I'll try to brighten some moods around here with my Day 10 model analysis. I see signs of an anafront deal with that Day 10 front. The 12z CMC was about to develop a major winter storm after the front cleared, and the 12z EURO @ 240 hours looks like it has the front through PA with a lot of energy still behind. In situations like this you need a positively tilted trough so that the front clears while you have a lot of leftover energy so that a new low forms on the stalled out front. Of course I know it is a Day 10 map that I'm analyzing, but it is the only thing I can think of right now since the HM storm looks dead. 

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1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Verbatim it would probably end up being too warm this run, but if the cold press came a little bit faster could see an anafrontal type event. Only thing to track like I said since the HM storm is dead. 

ecmwf_T850_us_11.png

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Verbatim it would probably end up being too warm this run, but if the cold press came a little bit faster could see an anafrontal type event. Only thing to track like I said since the HM storm is dead. 
Agreed there is not much else to discuss, but even with a sweet look like other day 10+ treat's this year, I'll be cursed if Im again going to track a cartopper-2" event for 10 straight days. Ok, Im lying, Im in....this is our big event for the season most likely! Only 20 or so more Euro runs to go.....we can do this!
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31 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Verbatim it would probably end up being too warm this run, but if the cold press came a little bit faster could see an anafrontal type event. Only thing to track like I said since the HM storm is dead. 

Help me out.  Can you give me the last example of when that happened here?

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31 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Help me out.  Can you give me the last example of when that happened here?

Wish I could remember dates like other folks but maybe this will jog some better memories.  I recall a pretty nice moderate region wide event from an anafront in either 14/15 or 13/14.  It was really the first time I heard that term. 

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55 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Help me out.  Can you give me the last example of when that happened here?

March 2015

We almost pulled it off last February but there was too much separation between waves so the wave amplified too much and lifted to our north. I got about 3" here. 

It worked out a couple times in 2014. 

ETA: were not talking about anafront. Better chance is two waves along the front. Lead wave goes north but pulls the front through but leaves enough energy behind at the tail of the trough to send a second wave up the front. 

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:
1 hour ago, Wentzadelphia said:
Verbatim it would probably end up being too warm this run, but if the cold press came a little bit faster could see an anafrontal type event. Only thing to track like I said since the HM storm is dead. 

Agreed there is not much else to discuss, but even with a sweet look like other day 10+ treat's this year, I'll be cursed if Im again going to track a cartopper-2" event for 10 straight days. Ok, Im lying, Im in....this is our big event for the season most likely! Only 20 or so more Euro runs to go.....we can do this!

Any event that tops 1" WILL be the big event for the season out here.

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Snowboarded at liberty during the commuttageddon storm. Was misting while on 15 and an hour or so after getting on the mountain it just nuked. It was insane. Hard to go fast because you just couldn't see. 270 was jammed so we did a u turn before the hill out of the city and took 28 back to darnestown. Epic day

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12 minutes ago, Ji said:

Bob said this thread would be bad today and this weekend. He nailed it

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
 

It's going to be rough going for a week+ before there's even a chance during a brief cold shot centered around the 29th-30th. I don't have high hopes but it's all we got until things start improving during the first week of Feb. No doubt the worst longer duration pattern of met winter so far on tap. 

On another note...it was really nice today. I can live with this no problem while we're in a shutout pattern. 

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's going to be rough going for a week+ before there's even a chance during a brief cold shot centered around the 29th-30th. I don't have high hopes but it's all we got until things start improving during the first week of Feb. No doubt the worst longer duration pattern of met winter so far on tap. 

On another note...it was really nice today. I can live with this no problem while we're in a shutout pattern. 

Yeah on the bright side, it is one of the nice things about our climo....in a given winter, you pretty much know you're going to get a few days here and there where it warms up and is nice, so you can just wait until those periods to do yard work, oil change, fix a gutter, clean up from a storm, or whatever else needs to be done outside. It's only when the warm periods last more than a few days that it gets problematic.....would be nice if we could get the occasional warm-ups without the risk of those long duration mega-torches (and why can't the warm ups at least be respectful of our peak climo). 

Here's to this warm up being relatively short so we can get back into tracking sooner rather than later. 

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3 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

It's going to be rough going for a week+ before there's even a chance during a brief cold shot centered around the 29th-30th. I don't have high hopes but it's all we got until things start improving during the first week of Feb. No doubt the worst longer duration pattern of met winter so far on tap. 

On another note...it was really nice today. I can live with this no problem while we're in a shutout pattern. 

Getting things right again is going to be a slow process, but the pattern appears to be moving in the right direction on the Pac side days 10-15. Looking at the EPS, big WPO ridge building, and the trop PV is strengthening and moving into position around Hudson Bay. Meanwhile +heights are building into GOA, with lower heights towards the Aleutians. Roll that forward, and we should see a +PNA/-EPO develop in early-mid Feb(like the weeklies are suggesting). No idea what to expect in the NA, but not counting on much NAO help at this point.

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18z gfs ensembles made a big move long range to PV in arctic circle, +AO. If that happens, blowtorch.
Strong signal now as we head into Feb for a +nao, -pna, +ao regime. Even the eps has a robust Bermuda high anchored in place. Some are saying this is just the transition back to a cold regime but Im starting to wonder if this isnt a transition into early spring? I realize every Nina is a bit different but so far this has been a fairly normalized Nina no? Cold December and early Jan, progressive ns, flip to warmish regime mid Jan to late Jan. The torchy look to start Feb the ens are signaling should not be a surprise. Again, I know some are trying to hold out hope and keep the masses calm but we dont control the weather.....it is what it is. I personally am not a fan of where the lr ens are taking us. And believe me, when something positive pops up I am among the first to sound the aleet. I am just not seeing it. And no reaper.....Im not panicking so dont even think about it.....we can talk in mid-March, not right now :-D
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I think today we made a big shift toward warm. Nov-Dec-Jan have had 3 very high 500mb ridges at low latitudes in the Atlantic, Russia, and I think near Japan. SSTs are also above normal everywhere in the Northern Hemisphere, highest ever if you dont consider ENSO. Anything unfavorable may blowtorch, although it may still be hard for -PNA to develop because of how warm Hemisphere is right now (opposite correlation to PDO-PNA(landmasses and such)).

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