January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2

[psuhoffman]

Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

The reality is ssta values matter.

Bob didn't make a flippant comment nor did he say ssta don't matter. He clearly explained that the ssta over a relatively small domain in that specific location is unlikely to have caused the extreme epo pattern we had. It's way more likely they were part effect and at best part of a feedback loop to a small degree.  

Ssta is not a universal. They matter more in the tropics where a bigger proportion of energy/heat is added to the equation. The effects of a ssta in the North Pacific isn't as great. The difference in heat being added to the atmosphere due to 49 degree water vs 43 is way different from the difference between 75 and 80 degree water.  It's not a 1-1 correlation. 

I do not think bob was dismissing your question. 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Bob didn't make a flippant comment nor did he say ssta don't matter. He clearly explained that the ssta over a relatively small domain in that specific location is unlikely to have caused the extreme epo pattern we had. It's way more likely they were part effect and at best part of a feedback loop to a small degree.  

Ssta is not a universal. They matter more in the tropics where a bigger proportion of energy/heat is added to the equation. The effects of a ssta in the North Pacific isn't as great. The difference in heat being added to the atmosphere due to 49 degree water vs 43 is way different from the difference between 75 and 80 degree water.  It's not a 1-1 correlation. 

I do not think bob was dismissing your question. 

I came on too strong about my disagreement, so sorry.  I'm in the process of plotting January 2014 to see when the blob did eventually show.  Arguably, this year can become last year just as well as 2014 based on the historical context.  I continue to be skeptical about where we're heading until 2019, but I'll tone that down a lot more.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

Here's a couple notes about comparing the scenarios.  The strength of the warm Pacific waters leading into 2014 were stronger and better positioned when comparing to this year.  I won't say that can't change down the road.  A big positive sign to the current look I just noticed is there was a notable cold blob last winter during the December pattern that is not present currently from last month. 

 

[psuhoffman]

The epo hasn't been the problem. At times it's the only thing we had. The current pacific 2-3 week relaxation is being driven by tropical forcing not the North Pacific imo. 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

The epo hasn't been the problem. At times it's the only thing we had. The current pacific 2-3 week relaxation is being driven by tropical forcing not the North Pacific imo. 

When you say tropical forcing, I'm guessing you're concerned about where the SOI has been trending in the short-medium range?

[frd]

10 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

When you say tropical forcing, I'm guessing you're concerned about where the SOI has been trending in the short-medium range?

I think that is related to the MJO passage , I believe it hit, or may hit + 30 as per JB , but that should reverse dowen the road 

[clskinsfan]

8 hours ago, mappy said:

 

 

I dont want to clutter this thread up. But that is PATHETIC. Only place on the east coast without snow is HERE.

[Cobalt]

28 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I dont want to clutter this thread up. But that is PATHETIC. Only place on the east coast without snow is HERE.

It's called "being unlucky". Missing storms by 50, 100 , 150 miles is what we've been doing so far this winter. 

[Ji]

Changes at 500 for hm storm


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[yoda]

11 minutes ago, Ji said:

Changes at 500 for hm storm


Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
 

On which model?

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Why are models doing this? It's moving toward blowtorch. Artificial, I say..

[Ji]

On which model?

Gfs looked different from 18z to 00z but still nothing

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[87storms]

I wonder if the 16 blizzard has spoiled us a bit lol. That storm was definitely of legendary status here and I still view old pics occasionally. That cold stretch we had recently was legit. We just got unlucky. Still plenty of time.

[Ralph Wiggum]

+ao, -pna, +nao, +epo on the gfs op towards the end. Hoping the gefs tell us otherwise but that look is about as rock bottom as you want to see during prime snowfall climo.

[Kevin Reilly]

2 hours ago, Cobalt said:

It's called "being unlucky". Missing storms by 50, 100 , 150 miles is what we've been doing so far this winter. 

Yep all about missing the connections by 6-8 hours would make the difference what you get in a progressive flow with minimal blocking. 

[showmethesnow]

Not because I am particularly high on the period at this point but more so just to have something to track, roughly around day 11 might have some potential. Both the GEFS and the EPS are suggesting the possibility of energy running up from the south as a cold front pulls through the region. The signal there seems to be getting marginally stronger as well. But we have been down this road several times already this winter (waiting/hoping for cold to filter in as trailing energy pulls up through the region). But again, it may be something to at least track to get us through a slow period of time. 

I am still liking the idea of a flip in the NPAC in a couple of weeks or so (The extended actually looks to be in the transition period). Also still seeing indications of ridging developing into Greenland in the longer range but this winter I will believe that when I actually see it occurring.

[Scraff]

Monday 1/29 (hr 252) on 6z GFS. Rain to snow! We know that always works out. LOLz. Something to keep an eye on I guess.  

[Bob Chill]

2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Not because I am particularly high on the period at this point but more so just to have something to track, roughly around day 11 might have some potential. Both the GEFS and the EPS are suggesting the possibility of energy running up from the south as a cold front pulls through the region. The signal there seems to be getting marginally stronger as well. But we have been down this road several times already this winter (waiting/hoping for cold to filter in as trailing energy pulls up through the region). But again, it may be something to at least track to get us through a slow period of time. 

I am still liking the idea of a flip in the NPAC in a couple of weeks or so (The extended actually looks to be in the transition period). Also still seeing indications of ridging developing into Greenland in the longer range but this winter I will believe that when I actually see it occurring.

For the first time this winter...lol...the EPS shows more promise for snowfall than the GEFS d10-15. Nothing eye popping or anything notable but who knows. We've squandered a cluster of chances lately so maybe our next weird setup works out. 

[showmethesnow]

37 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

For the first time this winter...lol...the EPS shows more promise for snowfall than the GEFS d10-15. Nothing eye popping or anything notable but who knows. We've squandered a cluster of chances lately so maybe our next weird setup works out. 

I've tracked worse, last winter comes to mind. So I will keep an eye on things and keep my fingers crossed. Actually looking forward to a slow week or two so I can catch up on things that I have let slide. Know the wife will be happy about that.  This killing at least a couple of hours a day tracking really ate into some of my projects and 'honey do list' items.

[PDIII]

1 hour ago, Scraff said:

Monday 1/29 (hr 252) on 6z GFS. Rain to snow! We know that always works out. LOLz. Something to keep an eye on I guess.  

I saw that it worked once.. sometime back in the 90s

[PDIII]

The next 10 days look fairly standard for us.  I dont see much room for variability in the pattern..looks like a western storm path. Each giving us a couple of warm weekends.  

[AdamHLG]

2 minutes ago, PDIII said:

I saw that it worked once.. sometime back in the 90s

Don't forget about January 26, 2011.  The Commutageddon storm.  That was rain to snow as I recall.    

[RevWarReenactor]

9 minutes ago, AdamHLG said:

Don't forget about January 26, 2011.  The Commutageddon storm.  That was rain to snow as I recall.    

It feels like rain to snow use to work a lot more in the 90's than it does now. Same goes for a good front end thump of snow before a change over. We don't seem to do those anymore.

[PDIII]

8 minutes ago, AdamHLG said:

Don't forget about January 26, 2011.  The Commutageddon storm.  That was rain to snow as I recall.    

100% different set up 1/29.  Jan 26 2011 (i think) was an upper level bowling ball that passed just to our south.  We had some warm temps ahead of the storm so we had a little rain to start off with.. but that storm actually did manufacture its own cold air and pounded us good for about 6 hours.  It is actually one of my top 5.  

1/29 is a mid west cutter. Once the front clears there is a little energy left over... that never works. 

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, PDIII said:

100% different set up 1/29.  Jan 26 2011 (i think) was an upper level bowling ball that passed just to our south.  We had some warm temps ahead of the storm so we had a little rain to start off with.. but that storm actually did manufacture its own cold air and pounded us good for about 6 hours.  It is actually one of my top 5.  

1/29 is a mid west cutter. Once the front clears there is a little energy left over... that never works. 

I was stuck on rt 70 for about 5 hours for that storm. Some of the heaviest snow rates I've ever seen.

[Jandurin]

I would have liked 1/26/2011 a lot more had it not knocked power out for 3 days.

Though I'll never forget walking around (now I know that's called a jebwalk) the dark neighborhood watching what I can only assume were transformers exploding. Huge green flashes in random directions in the darkness with no car sounds was eerie as heck.

[caviman2201]

You know its been a bad winter when more often than not, the disco threads turn into a mini-series of anecdotal stories from historical storms...

[Interstate]

57 minutes ago, AdamHLG said:

Don't forget about January 26, 2011.  The Commutageddon storm.  That was rain to snow as I recall.    

Yeah... This was when their first started to use brine on the road.  It was heavy rain to snow.  The rain washed all the brine off the road.  I got around 7 inches of paste in White Marsh and I-83 was a parking lot.

 

 

[87storms]

1 hour ago, PDIII said:

I saw that it worked once.. sometime back in the 90s

jan 2011 was epic.  best rain to snow event i've seen here and even experienced thundersnow during it (which i must say when you're outside and the lightning is basically right above you, it's pretty cool).

[usedtobe]

1 hour ago, PDIII said:

100% different set up 1/29.  Jan 26 2011 (i think) was an upper level bowling ball that passed just to our south.  We had some warm temps ahead of the storm so we had a little rain to start off with.. but that storm actually did manufacture its own cold air and pounded us good for about 6 hours.  It is actually one of my top 5.  

1/29 is a mid west cutter. Once the front clears there is a little energy left over... that never works. 

Exactly,  it was a bowling ball upper where the dynamics cooled us just enough for snow.  The neat thing is the models did a great job with the storm once to within a day or 2 of it.   Too bad the local governments didn't believe the forecasts.  It was a fun storm to forecast.