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January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2


WinterWxLuvr

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EPS/GEPS/GEFS all starting to show the transition back to a -EPO during early Feb. EPS is the fastest with raising heights over AK. Nice to see the CFS/EPS weeklies idea with the transition during the first week of Feb showing up on the regular ens now. Hopefully it happens sooner. EPS upped the # of solutions that have good cold in here by d15 but the slower ones are REALLY warm so the mean temps don't show it much. 

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18 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

One thing for certain is when the EPO ridge does pop there looks to be plenty of cold air to tap immediately.  A large expanse of -4 to -8C is no slouch in Canada.

eps_t850a_noram_61.thumb.png.868df3d735052838523ebc27f79904cb.png

 

Potential in early Feb to mid Feb to tap cross polar flow. The cold in Siberia next week and then spilling East to Alaska and South to Northern China is really frigid. I associate this almost to a period last winter when we had that bath tub sloshing event, as first brought up by JB, if I recall correctly.  

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30 minutes ago, frd said:

Potential in early Feb to mid Feb to tap cross polar flow. The cold in Siberia next week and then spilling East to Alaska and South to Northern China is really frigid. I associate this almost to a period last winter when we had that bath tub sloshing event, as first brought up by JB, if I recall correctly.  

I would be OK with a little relaxed version of what we had in late Dec early Jan.  The overwhelming cold is a little underwhelming with regards to snow chances.

I did notice that the end of gefs the PV seems to strengthen a bit and make a move toward the pole.  Hopefully we see another weakening and displacement once we get the EPO ridge back...

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59 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

I would be OK with a little relaxed version of what we had in late Dec early Jan.  The overwhelming cold is a little underwhelming with regards to snow chances.

I did notice that the end of gefs the PV seems to strengthen a bit and make a move toward the pole.  Hopefully we see another weakening and displacement once we get the EPO ridge back...

The thoughts by some strat followers is that the PV takes a hit at the end of this month and it continues as the month of Feb. progresses. So,  what you say about the gefs is most likely not a big concern at ths time.  

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Given this mean it doesn't surprise me there are still some holdout flush hits in the gefs and that their centered over our area.  That's a mediocre look but it's a mean. If some members have a slightly stronger negative to our northeast and slightly stronger blocking suddenly it opens up a small window of opportunity.  It's transient but it could be something. EPS doesn't like it at all though. Low odds but not impossible. 

IMG_3702.thumb.PNG.1bb27ebeb7c86d2f431fde063a0730de.PNG

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Weeklies look like what we expected. -EPO builds through week 3. Step down pattern during the first week of Feb then a general "decent" winter pattern all the way through into early March. Coldest relative to normal during the first week of March which is good because by then we need solid BN for snow. Overall the pattern during the second half of Feb reminds me of Feb 14&15. Not a lot of blocking but a decent -EPO/+PNA couplet and trop PV wobbling around hudson. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Weeklies look like what we expected. -EPO builds through week 3. Step down pattern during the first week of Feb then a general "decent" winter pattern all the way through into early March. Coldest relative to normal during the first week of March which is good because by then we need solid BN for snow. Overall the pattern during the second half of Feb reminds me of Feb 14&15. Not a lot of blocking but a decent -EPO/+PNA couplet and trop PV wobbling around hudson. 

Was just looking at it and I concur. No real signs of sustained help in the NA but the EPO/PNA get good mid month forward. Going to be a bit of a fight to get cold back in the east initially it appears, probably beyond the 10th if this is close to reality. Looks like latter 2 weeks of Feb into March could be rockin, or at least we hope lol.

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11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Weeklies look like what we expected. -EPO builds through week 3. Step down pattern during the first week of Feb then a general "decent" winter pattern all the way through into early March. Coldest relative to normal during the first week of March which is good because by then we need solid BN for snow. Overall the pattern during the second half of Feb reminds me of Feb 14&15. Not a lot of blocking but a decent -EPO/+PNA couplet and trop PV wobbling around hudson. 

We could hope the control is right lol

IMG_3703.thumb.PNG.540331d63dcfd0f9b56376e7beaa29c0.PNG

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That snow map is a joke but the way the control does that is how we would have to win. The combo of the epo and pna sets up a favorable boundary location and wave after wave rides along it. None of that snow is from some amped up coastal bomb just a series of waves along the boundary. Very similar to 2014 & 2015. The big difference on this run vs the last cold shot is the big cold dumps are centered to our north not south. That's important. We don't want a big blue ball centered over the Tennessee Valley unless there is some pretty serious block to force jet buckling. Minus that it's cold dry. Better off being near the southern boundary of the cold and try to win the gradient game in an epo driven pattern. 

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I'm totally good with the weeklies run. 3 solid weeks of an ok pattern. Who knows, maybe March pulls off a 14/15 too. 

Psu, agree about the lw pattern looking good for waves running it. We've won that way before. Let's try it again. Next thing I would like to see is the regular ens rolling the trough forward out of the west and in our direction without delays. We'll know within a week....

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm totally good with the weeklies run. 3 solid weeks of an ok pattern. Who knows, maybe March pulls off a 14/15 too. 

Psu, agree about the lw pattern looking good for waves running it. We've won that way before. Let's try it again. Next thing I would like to see is the regular ens rolling the trough forward out of the west and in our direction without delays. We'll know within a week....

Can that work out without the 14/15 warm blob?

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5 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Can that work out without the 14/15 warm blob?

We had epo help plenty this year. The problem was almost too much. It drove the core of the cold down into the middle of the eastern Conus and just crushed everything. Then we got unlucky in our chances at modest events to boot. But we don't need that warm pool to get a -epo. 

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10 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Can that work out without the 14/15 warm blob?

The warm blob is a chicken or egg debate. IMHO- the warm blob was a byproduct of the pattern and maybe caused a small amount of feedback at best. The area that it covered was really small and also think about the actual temperature of the water there. The difference between 45 and 50 degree water is probably insignificant. It looks "warm" on the ssta anomaly panels but in reality it still just chilly npac water either way. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

The warm blob is a chicken or egg debate. IMHO- the warm blob was a byproduct of the pattern and maybe caused a small amount of feedback at best. The area that it covered was really small and also think about the actual temperature of the water there. The difference between 45 and 50 degree water is probably insignificant. It looks "warm" on the ssta anomaly panels but in reality it still just chilly npac water either way. 

That comment disappoints me.

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