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January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2


WinterWxLuvr

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21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The next week is going to be terrible unless the trailing vort pans out. Assuming it doesn't, there's going to be nothing to track for a full week +. Going to be quiet in here. If the shift in early Feb starts gaining traction on ens plots then we'll probably start feeling better. Until then...concentrate on other hobbies. 

woodworking

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26 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Rolling 0z EPS @day 15 forward, it looks like the Pac (PNA/EPO) may be reconfiguring more in our favor. Mean trough shifting east. It might be the second week in Feb before we get back to a truly favorable pattern. Hopefully sooner. Be interesting to see the new weeklies.

Thought the same thing this morning and gefs seem to do the same.  Trough axis goes from off the west coast to the rockies/W plains.  I am hpefull for something to pop as the pattern transitions the first week of feb.  Could still have an active pattern and pressing cold.

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32 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Rolling 0z EPS @day 15 forward, it looks like the Pac (PNA/EPO) may be reconfiguring more in our favor. Mean trough shifting east. It might be the second week in Feb before we get back to a truly favorable pattern. Hopefully sooner. Be interesting to see the new weeklies.

6z GEFS looks like that as well way out at the end. 

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9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

6z GEFS looks like that as well way out at the end. 

Embedded in the EPS members shows quite a spread. Mean h5 looks fairly disgusting but inside of the members it looks like half are blasting a sig front through the MW into the east by the end. My guess is when the pattern shifts it will be abrupt. There will be one final push of warmth in advance of a pattern changing front. IMHO- it's more of a when discussion versus an if discussion. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Would be a mixed event. Decent CAD hp out in front but retreating. These types of tracks can be friendly to the western crew. 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_37.png

I think if we are able to eek out anything over the next 2 weeks it would look something like this. A thump and then hopefully dryslot..lol

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Ah, my fault. Personally, I don't see much chance with the HM storm but I've been plenty wrong plenty of times. 


Definitely a long shot. Like I mentioned early, enough GEFS members have something in the area to keep me interested. It’s nice that the Canadian has a low going up the coast, since WxUSAF just said that would be hard to get happening.
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26 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Cmc day 9 and 10 would work. A lot  of CAD.  Has a .000001 % chance of happening but nice to see...lol

 

 

I'd buy 5-10 inches that the CMC shows lol.  The western crew cashes in well too.  Too bad it will likely be gone next run... its probably the first chance we will get to see some wintry precip coming out of this "warm" pattern.  What's also interesting, if correct, it looks like our usual way of getting good snows -- CAD helps us stay snow, and as the system winds down/moves by we switch over to a lil bit of light rain/drizzle to end the event

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