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January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2


WinterWxLuvr

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6 minutes ago, Ji said:

Bob is going to have to write up a new psa at this time next week

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
 

Nah, I'll be out playing disc golf or hiking with my dog or working on my truck. Wearing shorts and loving it too. Embrace it. It's coming. Not every single day but incoming warm days at times are a near lock. 

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14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I've seen worse looks than this. It's complicated....Ji loves hearing that so I added it for effect. 

 

Just looking at that...This isnt terrible. Close to a phase this run and ridge much higher to the west.  Would be a thread the needle in a predominantly hostile pattern but...what else is there to do, right...

ETA:  I will say, this look seems common this winter....things are out of sync.  NS energy seems like it always outruns anything else coming in for the phase.

gfs_z500_vort_us_30.thumb.png.2557e171819c5bc36b9ca4fde4a59d10.png

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58 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Just looking at that...This isnt terrible. Close to a phase this run and ridge much higher to the west.  Would be a thread the needle in a predominantly hostile pattern but...what else is there to do, right...

ETA:  I will say, this look seems common this winter....things are out of sync.  NS energy seems like it always outruns anything else coming in for the phase.

gfs_z500_vort_us_30.thumb.png.2557e171819c5bc36b9ca4fde4a59d10.png

That's typical in a Nina. Northern steam is typically too progressive to phase without good blocking. 

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19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That's typical in a Nina. Northern steam is typically too progressive to phase without good blocking. 

Yep. Seen this show more than once...

Gefs and eps hate the shortwave after the cutter but both show an outside chance around the 28th-29th or so. We're certainly not in a good pattern for a long track. Hopefully something works out but it's looking pretty rough the rest of the month. 

Now that Feb is showing at the tail end of the ens runs we can see if the epo/pna start shifting back in favor. No signs yet but not far off if you extrapolate d15+.  lol

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It's a little hard to believe the doom shown on medium/long range models because we are currently in a nice -AO/4-PV split pattern. This has been pretty dominant in some form since November and looks to continue for at least the next 4-7 days. Big changes possible, away from -PNA on modeling I think. 

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17 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

That storm needs to deliver. The beginning of February is looking concerning for sure:

 

I'm skeptical of anything panning out over the next 2 weeks. Just calling it like I see it and not throwing around baseless doom and gloom. This is the "worst" pattern setting up we've seen this winter  for snow. Enjoy the warmer days and if we luck into something then it's true bonus snow. 

The first week of Feb is being advertised as a transition week. Warm start but things start moving around in the good direction as the days tick by. It could be a step down process or it could be abrupt. No way to know one way or the other. Winter will return in some fashion. I'm pretty confident there. Make some plans to enjoy some seasonably mild winter wx in the mean time. If it's going to be AN temp wise in general for a couple weeks then it's best to just enjoy the break.

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm skeptical of anything panning out over the next 2 weeks. Just calling it like I see it and not throwing around baseless doom and gloom. This is the "worst" pattern setting up we've seen this winter  for snow. Enjoy the warmer days and if we luck into something then it's true bonus snow. 

The first week of Feb is being advertised as a transition week. Warm start but things start moving around in the good direction as the days tick by. It could be a step down process or it could be abrupt. No way to know one way or the other. Winter will return in some fashion. I'm pretty confident there. Make some plans to enjoy some seasonably mild winter wx in the mean time. If it's going to be AN temp wise in general for a couple weeks then it's best to just enjoy the break.

February is only 28 days this year...the transition better happen real fast. Euro EPS was depressing through day 15

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19 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

The chances before feb have diminished somewhat from the look a few days ago. It was always going to be a long shot but there is more consensus that every wave will likely track north

feel like you start off every paragraph like this

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Just now, Ji said:

February is only 28 days this year...the transition better happen real fast. Euro EPS was depressing through day 15

Looks to hold right into March. In like a lion from how it looks right now. Subject to change 43 times but right now I'm already shoveling the March MECS in my mind. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Looks to hold right into March. In like a lion from how it looks right now. Subject to change 43 times but right now I'm already shoveling the March MECS in my mind. 

well mitchnick asked for a pattern change to deep warm...lets see if his theory holds and we come back with a southern jet attacking cold arctic Highs

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

well mitchnick asked for a pattern change to deep warm...lets see if his theory holds and we come back with a southern jet attacking cold arctic Highs

The next week is going to be terrible unless the trailing vort pans out. Assuming it doesn't, there's going to be nothing to track for a full week +. Going to be quiet in here. If the shift in early Feb starts gaining traction on ens plots then we'll probably start feeling better. Until then...concentrate on other hobbies. 

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

CFS and EPS weeklies look very similar to kick off March. If they looked way different I would discount both but the similarities do add some confidence....as much confidence as you can have in a 6 week prog...lol

dp1vCxc.jpg

 

cfs-avg_z500aMean_nhem_6.png

looks like more of the same man...no split flow...lots of northern stream stuff....i guess your hoping for a March 1999

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

The next week is going to be terrible unless the trailing vort pans out. Assuming it doesn't, there's going to be nothing to track for a full week +. Going to be quiet in here. If the shift in early Feb starts gaining traction on ens plots then we'll probably start feeling better. Until then...concentrate on other hobbies. 

like watching the wizards give up 133 points to the worst offensive team in the league. I swear...Ted Leonsis has let Ernie ruin this franchise longer for 15 year. I have seen like 5 once in a lifetime snowstorms in Ernie's tenure. We really need the HM storm to work out cause in winter, i dont have any other hobbies

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